Thursday, August 30, 2012

SPY Pulls Back to Support...Bounce or Break?


All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday…Though weak XLF, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors…

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.55 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.98 to 1 on the Nasdaq…

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers       823         618
Decliners       2,103       1,843


Thursday Highlights:
SPY moved down 1.02closing at 140.49…volume was 96.5 million shares…

VIX up .77 at 17.83
Euro down 24 pips at 1.2505
TNX - .34 at 16.20
TLT up .65 cents at 125.94…
XLF down 8 cents at 15.05…

Dow down -107
Nasdaq down - 32


AAPL down 9.60 at 663.87volume 10.8 million shares
FB down .01 cents at 19.09… volume 30.6 million shares…

CIEN -3.26, -19.50% gapped down following earnings…

The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone.

Technical Commentary: The SPY moved down $1.02 on 96.5 million shares to horizontal support and appears to be forming a potential M top pattern with a $3 price target if support is broken.  Friday is the last trading day before the three-day Labor Day weekend.  While the old adage is “never short a dull market,” protect and hedge your portfolio according to your rules if price breaks support on any charts you are trading.      

The INDU and SOX broke short term support today as did some individual stocks like QCOM, IBM and SHLD.

The Euro pulled back slightly in its sideways consolidation and the RUT is above short-term support.  XLF rallied off support and formed a bullish hammer.

Chart Targets
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,425.75 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
140.22, 139.80 = SPY
1,403, 1,387 = ES
2,750, 2,743, 2,700 = NQ


SETUPS…
Gap Down:  CIEN, JDSU, STX

At Support: DECK, DHR, FAS, HLF, MOS, RVBD, SOHU, SWI, ZION, BRCM, CHL, FFIV

Flag:  CRUS, ICE, INFA, JNPR, LVS, NKE, RCL, STI, UCO, SDRL, CRM, AAPL, KORS, EBAY, GLD,

Break of Support:  QCOM, NFLX, SHLD, IBM, SLB, WDC, TSL


11 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: COST, EA, SBUX, WCRX, BBBY, CERN, VMED PCLN

Lagging NDX stocks included: FSLR, SHLD, NFLX, FFIV, STX, CHKP, GMCR, RIMM, MRVL, EXPE, KLAC, FOSL, SNDK, NTAP, LRCX, FLEX, NUAN

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: ZAGG

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CIEN, MCP, TSL, JDSU, LDK, TPX, JNPR, INFA, VECO, ANR, WDC, CLF, ATI, GRPN

Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 37
 WDC, UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, DHR, SWKS, CRUS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TBT, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, DECK, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
CIEN, JNPR, SLB, SMH, V, VECO


Staying Below 30 DMA
AKS, IBM, SWK, ATI, TSL, TSLA, X, ANR, GES, MOS, VMW, DE, HLF, A, CHL, NTES, GRPN, ANR, CLF, DLR, TLT, ZAGG, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, CSTR, LDK, MCP

Twelve Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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