Friday, August 31, 2012

SPY Gains on Rising Volume...AAPL Forms Hammer...

Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day and open again on Tuesday.


Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLE, XLB and XLK were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened by more than double as advancers led decliners 2.35 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.68 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     2,046       1,547
Decliners          870          919


Friday Highlights:
SPY gained 67 centsclosing at 141.16…volume was 151.9 million shares, its highest level of the week and more than 50% above its 20 day average volume…

VIX down -.36 at 17.47…confirms gain in SPY
Euro up 67 pips at 1.2572
TNX - .58 at 15.62non-confirmation of falling dollar
TLT up 1.78 at 127.72…
XLF up 11 cents at 15.16…
Gold +35.50 at 1692.62…confirms falling dollar
Oil +1.94 at 96.56…confirms falling dollar

AAPL up 1.37 at 665.24volume 12.1 million shares …formed a bullish hammer
FB down 1.03 at 18.05… volume 58.7 million shares…made a new low


The Market Forecast green line is in upper zone. 

YTD At a Glance

                        August          YTD
Sector ETF
XLY                 +4.62%          +17.52%
XLK                +4.20%          +20.70%
XLF                 +3.41%          +17.52%
XLE                +2.70%            +4.38%
XLB                +2.32%            +7.41%
XLI                  +1.54%            +8.73%
XLV                +1.17%          +13.14%
XLP                -0.47%           +10.47%
XLU                -4.14%             +2.92%

Industry ETF
XHB                +12.12%        +38.93%
XSD                  +4.41%          +2.67%
XRT                  +3.57%        +16.99%
XOP                  +2.95%          +0.51%
XME                 +2.86%        -15.92%
XPH                  +1.71%        +15.02%
XES                  +0.70%          -3.85%
XBI                    -1.50%         +33.33%

SPY                +2.51%          +13.55%

AAPL              +9.39%          +64.96%
STX                 +7.67%          +98.82%
EBAY              +7.16%          +56.51%
EXPE              -9.66%           +78.27%


Technical Commentary: The SPY moved up 67 cents on 151.9 million shares bouncing up at horizontal support rising near diagonal resistance.  With Friday’s bounce protecting to the downside became unnecessary.

The current diagonal channel on the SPY is a trend continuation pattern.  Chart Signals sees  that the current uptrend is likely to continue.   Friday’s strength in bellwethers INTC, MSFT and ORCL along with strength in the Euro support this view.

(click image to enlarge)

The INDU and SOX also bounced today as did some individual stocks like QCOM and IBM and SHLD.

The Euro rose to resistance in its sideways consolidation and the RUT formed a hammer above short-term support.  XLF bounced off support and confirmed its bullish hammer.

A strengthening Euro led to a bounce in gold as we had expected last week.  The move was delayed but did occur on Friday.

Chart Targets
SPY = 143.10 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,425.75 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
140.22, 139.80 = SPY
1,403, 1,395, 1,387 = ES
2,750, 2,743, 2,700 = NQ


SETUPS…
At Support: DECK, HLF, MOS, RVBD, SOHU, SWI, ZION, BRCM, CHL, FFIV

Flag:  CRUS, ICE, INFA, JNPR, LVS, NKE, RCL, STI, AAPL, KORS, CROX, F

Channel at Support:  QCOM, NFLX, SHLD, GRMN, IBM, SLB, WDC, TSL

Hammer Candle: AAPL, BRCM, FFIV, FLEX, GMCR, QCOM, SNDK, VRSN, XLNX, A, ATI, BAC, CREE, CROX, DE, JDSU, RVBD, LVS, SWI, VECO, VMW


Bounce:  CDE, FCX, SWKS, AKS, UCO, GLW, EA, ESI, GLD, NTES, TLT, ESRX, CRM, DE, DHR, FAS, MOS, SDRL, SMH, V, ADSK, AMGN, APOL, CELG, EBAY, INTC, MSFT, ORCL


75 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GOLD, EA, ALTR, INTC, LRCX, ADSK, EBAY, FLEX, AMAT, LLTC

Lagging NDX stocks included: PNRA, NFLX, DELL, COST, FOSL, STX, ADBE, DTV, BIDU, CERN

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: CDE, AKS, FCX, MCP, SWKS, ESI, UCO, GLW, NTES

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FB, ZAGG, TBT

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 36
WDC, UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, CRUS, DHR, SWKS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, DECK, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
CSTR, MOS, SMH, TLT, V

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
TBT

Staying Below 30 DMA
CIEN, JNPR, SLB, VECO, AKS, IBM, SWK, ATI, TSL, TSLA, X, ANR, GES, VMW, DE, HLF, A, CHL, NTES, GRPN, CLF, DLR, ZAGG, FAZ, CMG, ESI, UAL, FB, LDK, MCP

Twelve Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

5 comments:

Gary said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gary said...

Dave,

Hope you and your family enjoy a safe holiday!

Gary

Mike said...

Hey Dave

I hope you and your family had a great Labor Day and enjoyed it.

Can't wait to see the "new thing"!!!

Thanks as always for your efforts in helping us to become better traders

Mike

Michael Hayes said...

Hi Dave,

Hope you had a nice and relaxing mini holiday, thanks for the extra
time you put in to teaching us every week

Cheers
Mike

Anonymous said...

Dave - Very interesting addition about the sectors and key industries. Thanks! How would you suggest we use it in this stage of the uptrend - look for the leaders to continue to lead or for the laggers to catch up more? Sue and Jamee