Monday, June 25, 2012

Euro Falls Leading SPY, XLF, Sectors Lower While Bull Flags Continue to Form...


The Euro fell after Spain formalized its request for a financial bailout for its banks.  Fear over EU seemed to inspire another round of overnight selling that extended into Monday.  Interest rates, financial stocks, the broad indexes and oil moved lower.  The dollar, gold and bonds moved higher.  VIX volatility also jumped.

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday.  Defensive sectors XLU, XLP, and XLV were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 3.41 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.86 to 1 on the NASDAQ.


Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers        685          652
Decliners       2,337        1,868

SPY moved down $2.14 on 146.3 million shares closing below its 30 DMA.  The SPX lost +21.30 at 1,313.72. 


The Market Forecast green line is pointed down.

AAPL down -11.33 at 570.76 on 10.9 million shares...

FB down 99 cents at 32.06 on volume of 24.3 million shares...

GRPN -0.51, -4.90%


Monday’s selloff failed to produce potential flag entries and led to another day in the bull flag pattern for many stocks and ETFs in Friday’s list.  Continue to Watch for the higher low and bounce for potential entry.

Daily Bull Flags: MNST, DLTR, ALXN, ULTA, CSTR, COST, CIEN, AVGO, MLNX, ROST, URE, NFLX, INFA, CRUS, ICE, FAS, IWM, AAPL, SXCI, ORLY, ALGN, PCLN, JDSU, VRSN, EXPE, C, PNRA, MCHP, SPY, DIA, QQQ

Flag Bounce:  GOLD


C Pattern Continuation: CSTR, SRCL  

C Pattern Pullback: SIAL, FISV, SHLD, V, TSLA, AKAM, MSFT, CMG, ISRG, CTXS, AVGO, AAPL

C Pattern Reversal: SAVE, FAS, SBUX, DKS, SWKS, INTU, SWI


C Pattern Entry: VMI

C Pattern Setup: CRM, ORLY, HIBB, ODFL, PIR, A, DHR, FMC


Break of Support:  QCOM, MRVL, BIDU, VECO

Support Bounce: VMW, ZAGG, GOOG

At Support:  TPX, MRVL, EXPD, F, ALTR, LVS, RVBD, MCP, TFM, CROX


Breakout Setup: VMED


Technical Commentary:
SPY fell on moderate volume of 146.3 million shares and appears to have been buyers stepping aside at the bid in the face of a sell off in the Euro.  Volume was lower than last Thursday and Breadth was stronger.  This is the time to exercise patience and wait for signals according to your rules. 


Monday Highlights:
SPY closes down $2.14
The Euro moved down 65 pips, closed at 1.2503
TNX -0.64
VIX jumped +2.27 at 20.38
XLF closed -29 cents at 14.04


6 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…


Leading NDX 100stocks included TEVA, GOLD, VOD, VMED, MNST, BIIB, DLTR

Lagging NDX stocks included RIMM, BRCM, FOSL, FSLR, LRCX, SIRI, SPLS, ALTR, QCOM, EXPE

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included FAZ, ESI

Losing stocks < -2.0% included VECO, MCP, PCX, FAS, NTES, SWKS, GRPN, CREE, LDK, AKS, SWI, TSL, SINA, C, VMW, RVBD, CLF, BAC, ANR, JDSU, LVS, CRUS, STI, TPX, LNKD, A, COH, SMH, GLW, ANF, FB, V, RCL, JNPR, TBT, WDC, GS, UAL, SLB, CIEN, FCX, SOHU, CRM, ATI, X, TSLA

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 19
TLT, CRUS, CIEN, ICE, GES, CSTR, HUM, BAC, DLR, HLF, URE, LNKD, MOS, TSL, TSLA, V, CMG, UAL, CHL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
ESI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
C, DE, FAS, INFA, JDSU, MCP, RCL, SINA, SMH, STI, SWI, SWKS

Staying Below 30 DMA
NTES, A, CDE, CLF, DHR, F, FCX, GLW, GS, IBM, RVBD, SLB, VECO, GRPN, FAZ, DECK, NKE, ZAGG, CRM, LDK, CREE, WDC, ANF, ATI, VMW, ESI, TIF, UCO, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, SOHU, CROX, LVS, PCX,  SWK, TPX, ZION, TBT, COH

Five Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

No comments: