Monday, May 14, 2012

SPY Follows Euro Lower Finds Support at 134...

A modern day Greek trojan horse seems to be creating havoc in Greek politics as rivaling parties can't find a consensus and increasing the likelihood that Greece could be ousted from the Euro-zone. Such a move could lead to severe economic consequences for the country.

The Euro opened lower on Sunday and continued down on Monday breaking its 1.29 support area and falling to 1.2821 at 5 pm.

The SPY opened lower on Monday, rose to a high of 135.61 and then pulled back to close at 134.11 its next support level below 135.00. The SPY's next support level is the 132.80 area. The SPY formed another inverted hammer.

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday.  Defensive sectors XLU, XLV, and XLP were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers led 5.46 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.12 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ
Advancers       472             615
Decliners        2,578          1,923

SPY moved down -1.50 cents on 163.5 million shares…

AAPL was down -8.49 to 558.22 on 12.6 million shares and formed an inverted hammer like spinning top...

GRPN +1.83, +18.54% as buyers stepped in front of earnings...rose another +2.10, +17.94% after the close to 13.84 following better than expected EPS

BMC +3.52, +8.71% announce shareholder rights plan to prevent a possible hostile takeover following hedge fund acquisition of more than 5% of stock

SPLS, DLTR and ROST report earnings this week.


Technical Commentary:

Financial stocks opened lower on a weak Euro and falling interest rates. TNX closed at its lowest level since October 4, 2011. JPM fell another -1.17. The VIX rose to 21.87 its highest close since Jan 17.

XLF closed down 30 cents.

Monday is a classic example of why we will continue to watch the Euro and TNX as an indication of potential weakness in the SPY.

Breakout – GILD, UAL, BIIB

Breakout Setup – ADM,

Pullback from Resistance - WDC, EBAY, GOOG, AMZN, CATM

Flag BounceWCRX, CRUS, AMGN

Flag SetupLNKD, CHL, FIRE, BGC, LULU, GRMN, URE, DLR, TSL, SWI, ROST, VRSN, DLTR, WCRX, CTXS, EXPE, SHLD, BA, CERN, DDD, GWR

Confirmed MACD Divergence – ZION, FAST

Potential MACD Divergence - AKAM, SWK, BAC, FLEX, BRCM

Bear Flag Setup - ADP, KLAC, PAYX, SPLS

19 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included BMC, VRTX, WCRX, YHOO, APOL, CSCO, GILD, SPLS, STX, EXPE

Lagging NDX stocks included SIRI, AKAM, WYNN, SHLD, DLTR, ORLY, TEVA, PNRA, GOLD, SBUX

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included GRPN, FAZ, LNKE, MCP

Losing stocks < -2.0% included TSLA, FAS, HLF, LVS, TSL, CDE, C, UCO, PCX, ZION, CROX, STI, CREE, TBT, SINA, BAC, SOHU, F, TPX, URE, GS, RVBD, TIF, SLB, VECO, RCL, DE, LDK, JNPR, CMG

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 11
TLT, URE, CHL, LNKD, CRUS, CREE, SWI, TSL, VECO, FAZ, UAL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
LDK, STI

Staying Below 30 DMA
WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

1 comment:

Scott Avery said...

Dave, your comment about the next spy support level really made my day. I had just drawn fibs from the low of 4-23 to the close of 5-1 and checked to see what the 161 fibs was. Sure enough...it was just the same as that number. This gave me a real confidence in knowing where to take some profits if it breaks to the downside. I had been looking for your support/resistance numbers that you used to include at the of each blog. I wonder if people realize just how lucky we are to have info such as this EVERYDAY. Thanks so much...