Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Monday. XLP, XLU and XLY were again the strongest sectors.
Breadth actually strengthened although it remained negative as decliners led advancers 1.48 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.20 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Exchange NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 1,218 1,142
Decliners 1,806 1,380
On Monday the broad indexes pulled back in a bull flag pattern. Interestingly the RUT which broke support on Friday rallied from its low, formed a hammer and closed up for the day. The SPX closed just below its 10 DMA and intra-day was at 1,359, down only 17 points from Thursday’s high of 1,376. The SPY moved down 56 cents on 140.6 million shares. Our Short Term Trend status changed to Neutral.
The big story of the day was AAPL which closed down 12.02, -2.20%, its biggest sell off since Feb 15. AAPL accounted for more than 10 points and MSFT, INTC, GOOG and BIDU more than 6 points of the NDX 26 point decline. AMZN which has underperformed the NDX over the past five months was up. Other visible NDX stocks NFLX, PCLN and QCOM closed lower.
Money Flow
Euro +19 pips 1.3198
TNX +0.19 20.05
TLT -0.93 116.22
XLF -0.06 14.81
SPX -5.30 1,364.33
VIX +0.76 18.05
RUT +0.15%
INDU -0.11%
SPX -0.39%
COMPQ -0.86%
NDX -1.01%
The trend is up and will continue to be up until the price action breaks support. The RUT and Euro strengthened, while the SOX broke horizontal support.
Money Flow was atypical on Monday as the Euro, TNX and VIX moved higher. XLF, SPX and bonds TLT and VIX moved lower. The Jan 18 SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,427 within 12 weeks of the breakout.
The VIX was up and did confirm the SPX move down on Monday. The VIX continues low and does not yet indicate a pending sell off beyond the price fluctuation beyond the magnitude over the past 74 days. If the VIX were to begin to rise and the index weakness mentioned above were to expand then a 3 to 5% pull back could become more likely.
(click image to enlarge)
The Euro rallied moderately on Monday, not much of a support bounce after falling to its 61.8% Fib retracement support are in its bull flag price pattern.
Continue to follow your rules in looking for entry opportunities, moving your stops and managing your exits.
Bull Flag Setups to watch on Tuesday – CCJ, ZAGG, GRMN, QCOM, LNKD, DHR, VRSN, AKAM, WHR, LO, C, GES, GS, CRUS, NVDA, BAC, MU, SWKS, JDSU, CREE, CHL, RCL, CAT, AXP, SWI, HAL, RVBD, KKD, MOS, SLB, PCS, WDC, MTW, STI, ADSK INTU, ESI, ENTR, CF
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included MCP
Losing stocks < -2.0% included PCX, AKS, ANR, WLT, PCS, GRPN, CF, TSL, SWKS, X, CIEN, SINA, JDSU, LDK, FCX, CREE, SLW, DECK,
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included ROST, ORLY, DLTR, COST, BBBY, STX, APOL, GRMN, MAT and ORCL.
Stocks weaker than the NDX include FSLR, MU, CTRP, FLEX, BRCM, LRCX, NFLX, WYNN, RIMM and NVDA.
Two NDX stocks CTSH and SRCL closed above the 30 DMA and ten CELG, CHRW, FFIV, GOLD, INTC, MXIM, SPLS, SYMC, VRSN and WCRX moved below leaving 60 NDX stocks above their 30 DMA.
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 44
CMG, FAS, SWK, NKE, CRUS, SMH, SWKS, NGLS, BAC, CHL, STI, C, TPX, KKD, CREE, GS, HLF, LNKD, LVS, CSTR, VECO, COH, CRM, SLB, INFA, NTES, SWI, VMW, IBM, ZAGG, TSLA, GES, V, ICE, ZION, NDAQ, TIF, RVBD, UCO, DHR, DLR, SNDK, SINA, ANF,
Moving Above 30 DMA =2
TBT, URE
Moving Below 30 DMA =13
A, CAT, CF, CROX, DOW, F, FFIV, MOS, POT, SLW, SWN, TLT, WDC
Staying Below 30 DMA
CDE, LDK, SLB, ENTR, HAL, JDSU, JNPR, UNP, ARUN, ESI, IL, NVDA, CIEN, GLW, CIEN, GLW, DECK, MCP, TSL, HUM, RCL, UAL, WLT, DE, CLF, FCX, X, GRPN, ANR, PCX, SOHU, AKS, ATI, FAZ
Four Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
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