Friday, August 5, 2011

VIX Drops...Spikes...Ends Near Unchanged on Friday...

The SPX started Friday about 17 points higher on a better than expected July Unemployment report of 9.1% as employers added 117,000 jobs, better than the previous two months.  The SPX sold off and filled the gap up within about 30 minutes and then continued to fall to its intraday low at 1,169 around noon.  When trading was over the SPX had a 50 point trading range and was down -0.69 at 1,199.38.  The VIX was very volatile with a trading range of over 11 points between 27 and 39 closing up slightly at 32. 

PCLN gapped up $54 on the open and closed up +44.47 and closed above its 30 DMA.  Five NDX 100 stocks AAPL, GOOG, GMCR, PCLN and VOD are above their 30 DMA.

(click image to enlarge)

NDX hammer, below 30 DMA -0.58%
SPX doji, below 30 DMA -0.06%
INDU hammer, bullish harami, below 30 DMA +0.54%
COMPQ lower shadow black candle, close below 30 DMA -0.94%
RUT lower shadow black candle, below 30 DMA -1.67%

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 2.88 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers         799              787  
Decliners        2,304           1,862

Index         Change    Close    Direction    Confirmation
VIX               +0.34      32.00       Up              Yes – SPX
SOX              -7.10     350.22       Down         Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included TBT, FAZ, ANF, CROX, CF, NKE, ENTR

Losing stocks < -2.0% included WTW, ZAGG, BAC, SWKS, LDK, GMCR, FAS, WLT, SWN, ARUN, NETL, KKD, CIEN, FFIV, URE, RVBD, PCX, DLR, NVDA, LVS, CLF, CDE, CRUS, MCP, TLT, ANR, SLW, CSTR, AGU, IL, CAM, NGLS, ESI, JDSU, ATW

Interest rates TNX closed +1.00 at 25.58, bond ETF TLT fell $3.04 and Financials XLF was down 26 cents.  The Euro moved up 199 pips to close at 1.4290 at 5 pm on Friday.

SPX
Resistance: 1,225, 1,235, 1,249
Support: 1,200, 1,173, 1,160

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is down.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -3.75 – lower shadow black candle, bounce at 30 DMA, above 30 DMA
AMZN +1.22 – hammer, below 30 DMA
BIDU -2.93 – lower shadow black candle, below 30 DMA
GOOG +1.52 – hammer, bounce at 30 DMA, above 30 DMA
NFLX -4.66 –black candle, below 30 DMA
PCLN +44.47 – gap up black candle, close above 30 DMA
QCOM -0.23 – hammer, below 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include PCLN, GRMN, QGEN, ORLY, FLIR, PAYX, WCRX, AMGN, ADP and HSIC.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include GMCR, FFIV, APOL, NTAP, NVDA, MRVL, ALTR, CHKP, LINTA and VRTX.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
CROX, FAZ, GMCR, TLT, HLF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
CHL
Staying Below 30 DMA
CAM, CDE, CF, CMG, CREE, DECK, IAG, LVS, MCP, MHS, MOS, SLW, SNDK, SOHU, SWKS, TPX, V, WTW, ESI, NTES, ANF, ATW, COH, FCX, GS, POT, SLB, WLT, NKE, SINA, SWN, ACN, AGU, DOW, UCO, UNP, VMW, CLF, NGLS, ANR, ATI, CAT, CIEN, CRM, CRUS, CY, DLR, FAS, ICE, JNPR, LDK, NDAQ, SMH, STI, TIF, URE, WDC, AKS, CSTR, DE, PCX, TBT, X, ZION, KKD, NETL, DHR, FFIV, SWK, UNG, ARUN, RVBD, HUM, ENTR, INFA, A, F, GES, HAS, BAC, TSL, UAL, VECO, NVDA, FWLT, JDSU, GLW, IL

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down
Short Term Market Trend: Down

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

please comment on rating drop tonight, thanks dave!

Chad D

Anonymous said...

I also would like you to comment on rating drop

bobbypin said...

The consequences of the S&P ratings decrease will be seen in the price action on Monday. The market discounts all new information and we will see the impact of this information in the US markets on Monday. Other markets have not taken this news well. As always...Follow your trading rules! Best wishes...

Ariel said...

Big money knew it on Wenesday night, that's why
Market lost 4% in one day

Anonymous said...

Are you going to be in Atlanta this week for the Basic Options or Advance Technicals workshops? I have been an avid student of yours for years & don't think I could stop;)

TraderBobb said...

Dave:
Looking forward to this evening's webcast: Below is the info if helps others:
"David Settle, Dave Johnson, and Joe Kinahan monitor the Futures market and further analyze the recent S&P downgrade of the U.S. from AAA to AA+, Sunday at 7 PM ET. Click here to watch the webcast. Additionally, you can view Saturday's webcast."
Need to log in on the Investools site.
Thanks
Robert
CANI_212

TraderBobb said...

Dave:
Thanks for the webcast.
Very informative.
Still learning to be a master chest player.
Thanks
Robert
CANI_212