Monday, May 2, 2011

SPX Pauses at Fib Level as Financials Struggle...

The SPX formed a spinning top and closed -2.39 at 1,361.22.  The SOX, INDU, TRAN and COMPQ all remained above old resistance.  The NDX closed right at old resistance, now support.  The RUT closed below old resistance.  Healthcare stocks were strong as GILD, CEPH and TEVA led the NDX.  Financials XLF slid 7 cents.

SPX black spinning top -0.18%
INDU doji -0.02%
COMPQ bearish engulfing pattern -0.33%
RUT bearish engulfing pattern -1.22%

Breadth weakened on Monday as decliners led advancers 1.40 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.16 to 1 on the NASDAQ …

Exchange      NYSE      NASDAQ
Advancers     1,250           840
Decliners       1,760        1,821

Index      Chg.      Close     Direction     Confirmation
VIX        +1.24        15.99        Up                 Yes – SPX
SOX       -4.50      445.06        Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included UAL, PCX

Losing stocks < -2.0% included SLW, CDE, ARUN, CRUS, ATW, IL, AKS, SWKS, CLF, MCP, ATI, VMW, CIEN, SLB

As I stated last week if the SPY broke through horizontal resistance, I would place a new real time virtual trade.  Conditional order entered to buy 50 May 135 calls at or above 134.25.  Order filled Tuesday at 7:53:51 at 1.30 per contract.  SPY opened this morning above the limit sell order at 136.76 and the call sold at 7:31:00 MDT, as posted earlier, for 2.85 for a gain of $1.55 or +119%.  Those 50 calls with an original cost of $6,500 gained $7,775 in 6 days.

Positives NDX, AMZN, NFLX, PCLN

Negatives –RUT, COMPQ, VIX, XLF, TNX, Breadth and sectors weakenedSPX

Interest rates TNX -0.10 moved down and bond ETF TLT moved down 25 cents. Financial stocks XLF moved down 7 cents. The Euro moved up 18 pips to 1.4827 at 5 pm on Monday.

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Healthcare XLV +1.02% and Consumer Discretionary XLY +0.35% were the strongest sectors.

Most of the major earnings are released but a few remain…

Key Earnings this week:
Monday – ADP
Tuesday – CEPH, CMCSA, FSLR, MYL, HSIC, VRTX
Wednesday – ERTS, EXPD, GRMN, NWSA, BMC, WFMI
Thursday – DTV, PCLN, MCHP
Friday – WCRX


Resistance: 1,367, 1,384
Support: 1,352, 1,344, 1,330

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -3.85 – black spinning top
AMZN +5.38 – white candle
BIDU -1.05 – black spinning top
GOOG -5.54 – small bearish engulfing
NFLX +4.52 – spinning top
PCLN +8.64 – potential shooting star
QCOM +0.15 – spinning top

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include GILD, CEPH, TEVA, AMZN, YHOO, NFLX, APOL, CMCSA, ESRX, LINTA, PCLN, CELG, EXPE, SBUX and ISRG.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include WFMI, AMAT, EBAY, CTXS, SHLD, FSLR, NVDA, SNDK, FFIV, RIMM, AAPL, INTC, GOOG, MSFT and MCHP.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HUM, HLF, SINA, UCO, CSTR, WDC, DHR, MCP, A, WLT, ACN, SOHU, ANF, DLR, CRM, LVS, TIF, V, NDAQ, NYX, SNDK, CIEN, IL, VMW, URE, ATI, TLT, CF, ARUN, DOW, MHS, UNG, ZION, AMD, CAT, DE, F, GES, NETL, NVDA, SMH, ESI, JDSU, UNP, FAS, GLW, SWN, VECO, HAS, GMCR, SWKS, UAL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
PCX
Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
AGU, AKS, ATW, FCX, IPI, LDK, RVBD, SLB, TSL
Staying Below 30 DMA
CLF, DECK, CHL, NTES, POT, SWK, CMG, FAZ, FWLT, JEC, VLO, JNPR, SLW, IAG, GS, CDE, STI, TBT, HAS, MOS, X, ICE, CAM, BAC, CRUS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

2 comments:

Gary said...

Dave would tomorrow be a good day to consider a counter trend trade SPY?

Dave Johnson said...

Gary,

Ever trader should follow their rules. If you have counter trend rules and you see an entry signal according to those rules...it is good form to follow your rules.

Dave