Monday, May 16, 2011

SPX Falls to Support as NDX Breaks Support Moves Lower...

The SPX closed -8.30 at 1,329.47 at horizontal support.  The SPX and INDU closed above their 30 DMA and the COMPQ and RUT closed below their 30 DMA.  Weakness in tech stocks XLK and Consumer Discretionary sector XLY led the SPX down to support.  Defensive sectors XLV, XLU and XLP kept the SPX above support.  Financial stocks XLF did not put pressure on the SPX

Major NDX stocks AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX and PCLN had a big sell off on heavy or rising volume.

Trade stocks to the downside that make lower highs and lower lows or that break horizontal support according to your rules.   

SPX inverted hammer, at support and 30 DMA -0.62%
INDU spinning top, at support, at 30 DMA -0.38%
COMPQ large black candle, break support and 30 DMA -1.63%
RUT large black candle, at support, below 30 DMA -2.90%

Breadth on Monday strengthened slightly as decliners led advancers 2.09 to 1 on the NYSE and weakened slightly 3.87 to 1 on the NASDAQ

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers         974               541
Decliners        2,038            2,097

Index              Chg.    Close   Direction    Confirmation
VIX                +1.17     18.24      Up              Yes – SPX
SOX               -6.26   434.69      Down          Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included ICE, SNDK, UAL, IAG

Losing stocks < -2.0% included NYX, MCP, ARUN, NETL, VMW, UCO, CRM, SWKS, JDSU, SOHU, LVS, CIEN, LDK, CRUS, NVDA, WDC, IL, PCX, CMG, AMD, NDAQ, HLF, TSL, ANF, GMCR

Key Earnings this week:  ADSK, CRM, DE, DELL, HPQ, LDK, TSL, JCP, LOW, WMT, HD, GME, ANF, SHLD, TGT

Positives – SPX and INDU, stayed above May 5 low of short term horizontal support, INDU closed above 30 DMA, NYSE breadth and sectors strengthened, Euro

Negatives – SPX, VIX, INDU, COMPQ, RUT, TNX, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN

Interest rates TNX -0.38 moved down and bond ETF TLT moved up 53 cents.  Financial stocks XLF dropped -2 cents. The Euro rose 41 pips to 1.4153 at 5 pm on Monday.

Six of nine sectors moved lower on Monday.  Healthcare XLV +0.17%, Utilities +0.12% and Consumer Staples XLP +0.03% and were the strongest sectors.

Many stocks have turned lower over the past three trading days.  These NDX stocks that are still up trending include:  CERN, DLTR, ADP, EXPE, SIAL, MICC, CELG, MCHP, SYMC, CHKP, CHRW, CTXS, HSIC, ILMN, VMED, COST, EXPD, LIFE, LINTA, VRTX, ROST, ALTR, ORLY, DELL, LLTC, QCOM, DTV, FAST, FLIR, INTC, MXIM, NIHD, NTAP, AMGN, XRAY, XLNX, ESRX, BMC, ERTS, VRSN, ADSK, ADBE, WCRX

SPX
Resistance: 1,344, 1,352, 1,367
Support: 1,330, 1321, 1310

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -7.20 – large black candle, below 30DMA
AMZN -10.05 – large black candle, close above 30 DMA
BIDU -3.51 – inverted hammer, below 30DMA
GOOG -11.13 – large black candle, below 30 DMA
NFLX -9.43 – large black candle, close at 30 DMA
PCLN -17.23 – large black candle, below 30 DMA
QCOM -0.42 – black spinning top, above 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include SNDK, MU, XRAY, JOYG, INTC, FFIV, CA, CHRW, CEPH and SIAL.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include AMZN, YHOO, WYNN, NFLX, EBAY, CTSH, PCLN, ALXN, BRCM, CTXS, NVDA, AKAM, WCRX, ORCL and MRVL.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HUM, HLF, CSTR, DHR, A, ANF, DLR, TIF, V, URE, TLT, MHS, AMD, GES, SMH, JDSU, UNP, VECO, HAS, UAL, GMCR, GLW, RVBD, ESI, FAZ, JNPR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ACN, ICE, SNDK
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ATI, CIEN, CMG, CRM, NYX, VMW
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHL, DOW, F, NVDA, SWN, CF, FWLT, ZION, CAT, IL, NDAQ, STI, SWK, SWKS, VLO, WDC, ARUN, MCP, SINA, WLT, FAS, LVS, SOHU, UNG, UCO, DE, NETL, NGLS, PCX, AGU, AKS, ATW, FCX, IPI, LDK, SLB, TSL, CLF, DECK, NTES, POT, JEC, SLW, IAG, GS, CDE, TBT, MOS, X, CAM, BAC, CRUS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Down


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