Friday, August 13, 2010

SPX Rally Fades into Close...Holds at Support...

DJIA              10,303.15   -16.80   -0.16%
SP500             1,079.25     -4.36   -0.40%
COMPQ           2,173.48   -16.79   -0.77%
Russell 2000      609.49     -7.49   -1.21%

Exchange      NYSE     NASD
Advancing     1,379         799
Declining       1,642      1,809

Oil              $75.39   -0.35
Gold      $1,214.90   +0.10
SOX           322.74    -3.01
VIX              26.24   +0.51


Index         Direction Confirmation
VIX             Up             Yes – SPX
SOX            Down        Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included BYI, RMBS, VMW, CAM, FFIV, BAC, AMX, WLT, GR, AGU, UNG, FAZ, CAT, DOW, DLR, HAS, HSY, PCP, UAUA, STI, CRM, MHS, SPG, BA, SWK, JEC, LVS, WFMI

The SPX opened lower and cycled up and down in a narrow range between 1,079 and 1,086, finally finishing Friday at the low end of the range at 1,079.25. The three major indexes formed an inside day which are a potential reversal day.


INDU spinning top inside day
SPX inverted hammer inside day
COMPQ black candle inside day

NFLX, PCLN, POT, MOS, AGU and IPI finally took a rest forming spinning top patterns.

LVS and AKAM moved higher while CHL pulled back.

CAM, VMW, GR, CTXS gave bull flag entry signals on Friday with a break above the high of the low day.

Support Bounce Setups for Monday: NYX, GS, DE, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, SWK, BUCY, FFIV, HAS, CRUS, GMCR, HLF, CAT, CRM, MCD, X, WMT, WLT, FCX, URE, UNP, SPG, CLF, CMG, LXK, CAM, UAUA, CAL, TIE, DLR, UPS, FDX, VOD, NTES, RVBD, SINA, NDAQ

Stay focused on and trade according to the chart on Monday.

N100 Flags: MICC, CTSH, INTU, QCOM, BIDU, EXPD, EXPE, JOYG, WYNN, GOOG, LOGI, ILMN, AMZN, HOLX

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,086, 1,100, 1,115
Support: 1,071, 1,056

Enter strong stocks up with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day.

Continue with bearish trades that continue to make new lows. Exit bearish trades with a break above the high of the low day according to your rules.

The VIX rose +0.51 to 26.24 confirming Friday’s move down.

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.69 – bullish harami, inside day
QCOM -0.29 – inverted hammer, bullish harami inside day at gap support
GOOG -5.66 – bullish harami, inside day in bull flag
BIDU +0.18– spinning top, inside day in bull flag

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NVDA, ADSK, STX, NTAP, PPDI, ESRX, FWLT, CTXS, PAYX, ILMN, AKAM, RYAAY, NIHD, AMGN and LIFE.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include: APOL, GRMN, BRCM, URBN, DISH, SBUX, XLNX, JBHT, IACI, CMCSA, INTC, AMZN, NWSA, RIMM and BBBY.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, GMCR, HANS, BUCY, CAT, CRM, HLF, PCLN, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, MOS, POT, FCX, FLS, GES, PCP, WLT, WMT, X, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, UNP, URE, HAS, NYX, LXK, MA, NFLX, FAZ
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BYI, CAM, VMW
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
CMG, CRUS, SWK,
Staying Below 30 DMA
ACN, BA, GME, TSL, A, AIV, AKS, AMX, ATI, CREE, CSTR, DECK, DHR, DOW, FAS, RMBS, SNDK, STI, TIE, UAUA, UCO, USO, V, DLR, ICE, USD, PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, JEC, NTRI, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

4 comments:

Brian McAllister said...

Dave--I feel schizophrenic. None of my bearish trades stopped out today (closed above the high of the low day) and in fact, they kept me well in the black. But there were a number of great long entry signals yesterday and today, some of which I started to scale into in accordance with my rules. I will resolve the schizophrenia when the market bounces or breaks down, but for now I'm following my rules on both sides of the spectrum. By the way, I did much better this time on the pullback, reacting faster and keeping a substantial amount of my profits from the prior bounce. Incremental progress, but still, it is progress. Thanks for your persistence in coaching!

Brian

Anonymous said...

Dave,

I have a lot of set ups, too many. So I am trying to get down to the trades to take. Having difficulty deciding which are higher probability trades with better out comes, larger gains or smaller losses.

A stock with a shorter pull back seems stronger but has a smaller target gains. On the other hand, a stock with a deeper pull back seems weaker but has larger target gains. Using target 1 and target 2 measuring techniques.

Do you have any wisdom to share on these choices?

Thanks
Don

Dave Johnson said...

Brian,

That's a neutral or sideways trends that create the paradoxical two direction opportunites.

Keep up the great trading.

Cheers,

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Don,

The strongest trends with strongest support bounces. Two equal and on moving with a bigger volume increase...this is where that last 5% in the decision matrix can come in.

Cheers,

Dave