Wednesday, November 4, 2009

SPX Fades From Daily Highs While Closeing Higher...

DJIA + 30.23 +0.31% SP500 + 1.09 +0.10% COMPQ - 1.80 -0.09% Russell 2000 - 7.50 -1.31% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,629 1,080 Declining 1,401 1,654 Oil $80.40 +0.80 Gold $1,087.30 +2.10 SOX 295.31 +1.83 VIX 27.72 -1.09 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX moved up and did NOT confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +1.28%...XLU +0.67%...XLK +0.58% Weakest Sectors: XLF -1.39%...XLI -0.19%...XLE -0.09% Six of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Healthcare, Utilities, Technology and Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX +0.10%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -1.39%: IVZ, NTRS, TROW, TRV, AOC, MET, AXP, AFL, ALL, CB, BAC, PRU, JPM and GS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.58%: MA, ADBE, MSFT, GLW, CSCO, INTC, AAPL and T. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 Level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target Key Support Levels 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target The SPX opened about 7 points higher and rose to resistance at 1,061 gave back most of the gains in the last hour of trading as the SPX fell from 1,061 to close at 1,046.50. Once again sellers tookcontrol at the 1,061 resistance area. The FOMC announced that this afternoon at 2:15 ET that the Fed Funds rate was being left unchanged with its target range at 0.00% to 0.25. Stock indices did its typical extra volatility moving sharply down and then sharply up after the announcement before falling to near even before the close. Many believe that prices did not maintain their highs due to short term profit taking as the market awaits Friday’s unemployment report. Technically Tuesday’s bullish candle on the SPX was confirmed, however it was weak confirmation. Yesterday AA, BUCY, CAT, DD, DE, FLS, JCG, JOYG, JPM, WHR, XLF and ZION formed bullish engulfing patterns that failed to follow through on Wednesday. This is another sign of the battle between buyers and sellers that we have seen in the price action this week. ADBE, FCX, NKE and POT while closing below their daily high did follow through on Tuesday’s bullish engulfing pattern. AFAM and SNHY rose after positive earnings reports and GRMN fell on better than expected EPS. After the close CSCO reported better than expected earnings and revenues and rose 66 cents or 2.83% in after-hours trading. Trade Results We closed out our BDK real time virtual intermediate term trade that we entered in a live webcast on August 5 buying 30 Jan 10 45 calls at 1.65. The trade was based on an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a 60 price target. Total invested was 4,950 plus 45 for commissions. Due to the merger offer for BDK by SWK the stock traded above our 60 price target on Tuesday. This morning in our live Wednesday webcast we closed out the virtual trade at 15.90 per contract. The after commissions proceeds were $47,655. The net gain was $42,660 or 854% in three months. (click image to enlarge) This virtual trade illustrates that well designed technical trades combined with discipline have the potential to provide both defined limited risk and significant profit potential. Guidance: The intermediate term trend is still up while the short term trend is neutral. Momentum moved higher and a late sell off brought it back into balance as the SPX formed a doji that did confirm Tuesday’s pattern. The MACD histogram rose on Wednesday. Continue to watch for the support bounce to continue while also watching for a potential support break. SPX short term resistance is still at 1,056 and 1,061. Continue to trade the chart of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL +2.06 QCOM -0.62 GOOG +3.04 BIDU +3.33 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: STX, ADBE, INFY, HOLX, MRVL, FWLT, COST, MSFT, PAYX, CSCO, BRCM, FLIR, DTV, ISRG, CEPH, INTC, ALTR, LOGI, AAPL, MCHP, NWSA, LBTYA, VRSN, BIDU, ADSK, XLNX and DISH. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, MUR, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, ATW, BKC, CLB, GES, HLF, SNA Moving Above 30 DMA = 6 AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 CPLA, DV, GXDX, SWN, WAB Staying Below 30 DMA AAPL, BLUD, CTSH, FLS, GPRO, HANS, HDB, ORCL, RBN, EZPW, JEC, PCLN, STRA, TRLG, PWRD, AMED, BIDU, CAM, FSLR, GMCR, APEI, MOS, PCP, PWR, WRC, NIHD, JOSB, TDG, SPWRA, FAS, UYG, ESI, EBAY, BAP, CHL, GILD, URE, USD, DLTR, GME, URE, PETS, MON, X, PSYS, NTLS, PPD, BIIB, JCOM, FUQI, CBST, RIMM, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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