Friday, November 20, 2009

SPX Closes Near Support...

Good afternoon Bloggers...I would love to receive an email from you at chartsignals@yahoo.com on; What features in Chart Signals do you find of greatest interest or value? I am evaluating additional changes and would like to know what you find worthwhile. If you would email me today or over the weekend that would be greatly appreciated. DJIA - 14.28 -0.14% SP500 - 3.52 -0.32% COMPQ - 10.78 -0.50% Russell 2000 - 1.00 -0.17% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,274 1,245 Declining 1,716 1,449 Oil $76.72 -0.74 Gold $1,146.80 +6.60 SOX 307.97 -2.53 VIX 22.19 -0.44 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday. The SOX moved down and did confirm the move down in the COMPQ. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.70%...XLU +0.45%...XLP +0.15% Weakest Sectors: XLE -0.93%...XLF -0.61%...XLB -0.52% Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.32%. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLE Horizontal Breakout: XLF, XLI, XLU Sideways: Down Trending: Key Resistance Levels: 1,100 = October High 1,025 - 1,133 = 1,075 BO chart target - Sep 08 Low Key Support Levels 1,087 = Nov 10 Channel low 1,082 = Nov 9 S1 level 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,061 = Sep 16 S1 level 1,056 = Sep 25 R1 level 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance The SPX broke through the 1,100 resistance area with a strong trend day on Monday and looked poised to rise to the 1,125 area. Tuesday and Wednesday sellers took over at the 1,110 area while buyers controlled the 1,100 area. Futures fell overnight on Wednesday leading the SPX through its 1,100 support and down to 1,088, the Nov 10 support level of it current horizontal channel. Buyers appeared and the SPX rallied to 1,096 after the first 90 minutes of trading on Thursday. In what looked like an instant replay, the SPX fell to the 1,088 area and buyers again appeared after about two hours of trading and the SPX rallied to 1,093 and closed at 1,091.38. The SPX and COMPQ could not sustain a breakout above their October highs. The RUT actually made a lower high. In contrast the INDU broke through its October highs and has maintained the higher trading level. Even on Friday you can see the stronger chart pattern on the INDU compared with the other three indices. (click image to enlarge) Check out these Dow stocks: (click image to enlarge) DD is forming a bull flag after an ascending triangle breakout. DIS is forming a bull flag after a horizontal breakout. MRK hit a 52-week high after a horizontal breakout. UTX is forming a bull flag in an uptrend series of higher highs and higher lows. With the pull back Thursday and Friday a number of bull flags have begun to appear on individual charts. There were a good number of hammer formations on Thursday many of which did not confirm on Friday. A support bounce in currently forming flags could give an entry signal next week. Check out these bull flags: (click image to enlarge) ESRX formed a piercing line pattern. AMZN formed a piercing line like spinning top. NTAP formed a hammer following an earnings gap. CREE formed two hammers in its bull flag. Guidance: Next week is a holiday shortened Thanksgiving Day week. Trading volume should be typical on Monday and Tuesday, with volume dropping off on Wednesday especially in the afternoon. Friday which is a half trading day will be one of the two lightest trading days of the year. The intermediate term is up and the short term trend has been net neutral over the past two weeks. There is an old trading adage that states don’t short a dull market. Next week will be a dull market and traders may be less likely to want to get short which could wind up giving buyers and easier time of moving the market from Friday’s support back to the recent highs around SPX 1,110. Also keep in mind that the INDU has been stronger and is already above October resistance and is in a bull flag. The fact that there are a lot of stock charts similar to the ones in this post that are in bull flags and have formed hammers or other bullish candles on Thursday and Friday, seems to indicate a strong probability of the market bouncing next week. Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch and follow your rules. AAPL -0.59 QCOM +0.01 GOOG -3.03 BIDU -0.42 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include MICC, RIMM, EXPE, ESRX, NIHD, BIIB, RYAAY, HANS, GENZ, CELG, DISH, INFY, AMZN, BBBY, PAYX, SPLS, DTV, SIAL, MRVL, FSLR, ADP, QCOM, CERN, APOL, SRCL, BIDU, CEPH, FLIR, ORLY and CMCSA. Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA K, JW.A, DECK, AMZN, SLGN, NFLX, MCD, ICE, DLB, FAZ, RCI, ESRX, MHS, WCG, ALGT, BDX, BYI, VAR, ACN, JOYG, CTSH, HLF, AFAM, AMX, GR, SNHY, SYNA, WMT, AAPL, BLUD, DLTR, DV, GILD, HDB, ORCL, RBN, WAB, BIDU, EZPW, PCLN, GXDX, PCP, URE, MON, CPLA, MOS, TDG, X, BAP, CHL Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BIIB, GME, NTLS Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AMX, BAP, JOYG, SLGN, WAB Staying Below 30 DMA ATW, CAM, CLB, FLS, SNA, FAS, UYG, USD, PWRD, PPD, VPRT, GES, JEC, JOSB, WRC, EBAY, GMCR, JCOM, MUR, RIMM, SWN, DV, FAZ, BKC, HANS, GPRO, STRA, TRLG, AMED, FSLR, APEI, PWR, NIHD, SPWRA, ESI, PETS, PSYS, FUQI, CBST, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

5 comments:

Anonymous said...
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Peggy said...

Dave,
I'm writing you an email today to answer your questions. I just wanted you to know again, how much I appreciate your daily commentary on the market as well as on individuals stocks and sectors on the move.
One of the things that I look forward to on the weekend is your participation on the Market Wrap. It is helpful to hear your thoughts about the price action of the previous week and your insight going into the next week and the reasons behind your thoughts.
Thank you and have a great weekend!
Peggy

PS) Laney wishing you a nice weekend too, and happy holidays early!

Anonymous said...

Thanks David.
You know i would be very uncomfortable in these market pull backs, if it weren't for your teaching me how to be a great trader!

I know i probably shouldn't admit that, but it's true..

Have a wonderful weekend and will 'see' you next week!

Laney
P.S.
Thank you, Peggy- I hope that you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving, also!

Bruce G said...

Dave,

The best part I enjoy is your "straight talk" advice when you put things in perspective. Also think that the charts you show and comment on help me to see what types of things you are looking at. All of the information that you post is useful to me however, including support /resistance areas, etc.

thank you for all that you do to help us learn and become GREAT traders.

Bruce

Unknown said...

Dave,
I find your recap of the indices, including the support and resistance levels, very helpful. I also like it when you post the charts that correspond to your analysis.
Thank you for all you do. We are all Great Traders because of your coaching!
Have a great Thanksgiving!
Sheila