Thursday, May 28, 2009

Stocks, Oil, Gold Rise Coninue Narrow Trading Range...

DJIA + 103.78, +1.25% SP500 + 13.77, +1.54% NASDAQ Comp. + 20.71, +1.20% Russell 2000 + 2.35, +0.48% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,988 1,516 Declining 981 1,194 Oil $65.08 +$1.63 Gold $961.50 +$8.20 SOX 268.65 +4.71 VIX 31.67 -0.69 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLE +3.32%...XLF +2.83%...XLU +2.07% Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.39%...XLV +0.51%...XLI +0.97% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Energy, Financials, Utilities, and Materials were stronger than the SPX +1.54%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.83%: AFL, CME, PNC, JPM, KEY, USB, ICE, MET, TROW, IVZ, NTRS, SPG, BAC, AXP, STT, GS, SCHW, ALL, MS, WFC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.45% include: DELL, MA, SYMC, EBAY, ADP, T, AMAT, AMT, IBM, INTC, CSCO, MSFT, TXN and AAPL. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLY Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 924 = horizontal 935 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 899 = Tuesday’s S1 891 = 38.2% Fib level 875 = horizontal 866 = 61.8% Fib level Tuesday thrust, Wednesday pause pull back, Thursday thrust…have we seen this pattern before? Stock prices recovered much of Wednesday's sell off as the government's seven year note auction went through without any negative surprises. During this holiday shortened week the SPX trading range has been 32 points. We had been expecting 40 to 45 points as stated last Friday in the Weekly Wrap. If the SPX rises tomorrow it would have to hit 921 to 926 to achieve our range forecast. Gold prices moved higher on Thursday and gold stocks with big moves include AEM, NEM, GOLD, GDX, GLD and GG. Steel stocks ATI, X, STLD, AKS and SCHN made solid gains on Thursday. Coal stocks KOL, BTU, CNX, MEE and WLT also rose on Thursday. Index Commentary The DJIA formed a large white candle that closed above Wednesday’s R1 and at its 8,405 horizontal resistance… three month chart target 10,340…volume was 290 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a large white candle that closed above Wednesday’s R1 level…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a hanging man at horizontal resistance…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a hammer….3 month chart target 606…closed at its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. At the Open on Thursday SPY – hammer KOL – hanging man new high close SHLD – doji ADBE – hammer STLD – hanging man at horizontal resistance CTV – doji EL – hammer JOYG – hanging man at horizontal resistance USD – hanging man JNPR – white candle breakout continuation STT – white candle at horizontal resistance FAS – hammer ZION – hammer OSG – white candle confirm inverted hammer LEAP – gap down on news of stock offering WAB – doji TRLG – spinning top at horizontal resistance PWRD – large white candle breakout continuation X – spinning top at horizontal resistance Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, K, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, ACN, JOYG, MUR, PSYS, CHL, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, SPWRA, SYNA, X, MCD, BDX, CBST, AAPL, AFAM, DLTR, ESRX, GES, GXDX, ORCL, RBN, USD, WRC Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 DECK, FAS, WMT Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 CPLA, DV Staying Below 30 DMA APEI, DLB, ESI, HANS, JOSB, SNA, STRA, URE, MON, WAB, NTLS, AMED, PETS, SNHY, AMZN, EZPW, JW.A, JEC, PWR, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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