Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Stocks Continue to Rally and Confirm Bullish Harami

DJIA + 172.60, +2.05% SP500 + 21.93, +2.58% NASDAQ Comp. + 42.58, +2.94% Russell 2000 + 11.94, +2.70% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,548 1,736 Declining 1,297 1,112 Oil $46.79 -$0.17 Gold $768.80 -$12.50 SOX 198.07 +12.38 VIX 60.72 -2.26 Strongest Sectors: XLF +5.17%...XLY +3.58%...XLK +2.87% Weakest Sectors: XLB -0.18%...XLE +0.06%...XLP +1.21% Sector Watch Up Trending: Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLU Down Trending: XLF, XLY, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK Stocks continued to rally on Tuesday in part due to strong double digit increase in online spending over the Friday to Monday Thanksgiving weekend. XRT, the Retail Industry ETF rose 4.17%, while AMZN jumped 9.76%. Financial ETF, XLF, was the strongest sector ETF for the second straight day. Eight of nine sector ETFS moved higher on Wednesday. The broad indices and many stocks confirmed Tuesday’s bullish harami pattern while also breaking through Monday’s R1 resistance level and in many cases regaining over Tuesday and Wednesday more than 75% of Monday’s losses. The VIX fell again confirming the rise in the SPX. The SOX rose significantly making up for Tuesday’s under performance providing solid support to today’s tech rise. The DJIA continues in its intermediate term (7 weeks) sideways trading range while the SPX intermediate term trend status changed to neutral after closing above its Oct. 10 low for the second straight day. The Nasdaq and RUT are still below key October support, now resistance levels. Check out our Stocks to Watch on Thursday list. Gold and gold stocks fell on Wednesday and oil slipped just 17 cents. AAPL: Head & Shoulders, Double Bottom, Fibonacci Retracement and Hammer Early this morning in our webcast we pointed out two intra-day patterns a head and shoulders from Tuesday and a potential double bottom in progress on Wednesday. We pointed out that Tuesday's head and shoulders (1) had a price target of $89.25(2) which was achieved just after 2 pm and just before a rally took AAPL to a close at $92.50. We pointed out this morning during the first hour that AAPL was forming a potential double bottom (2) and if it broke the resistance high of $92.50 that the intra-day price target for AAPL would be $96. AAPL then rallied to $94.50 where traders selling formed resistance and caused AAPL to retreat, interestingly enough to a 50% Fibonacci retracement (3), where quite amazingly a hammer and dragonfly doji were formed (3)...only to see buyers step in and drive AAPL to a touchdown at $96 (4) just before closing at $95.90. (click image to enlarge) ProphetCharts These types of occurences are only happening every day and people wonder why Dave believes so strongly in Chart Signals. Dave's Insight: "I know technical analysis is just an accident...but isn't it amazing how the accident keeps happening over and over and over again." Index Commentary The DJIA confirmed Tuesday’s bullish harami and closed above Monday’s R1 level and also above its 20 DMA…closed just below its 30 DMA…remained in sideways trading range…bounced off 50% Fibonacci support and rose above the 23.6% retracement level from the Nov. 21 low. (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks: Holding Above 30 DMA AXYS…AYE…DV…EZPW…PCLN…PPD…ASIA…BAP…CBST…DLTR…ESI…FLR…FSTR…TKC…JCOM…JEC…PCR…AME…AOB…ATK…B…CL…CTSH…FWLT…IRIS…JW.A…MIG…RTN…SNA…TEVA…WMS Moving Above 30 DMA AAPL…ANSS…BCR…BYI…GILD...HAS…IT…JOSB…LFC…MTD…RCI…SHW…URBN…VIVO…WAB Moving Below 30 DMA FLIR…PCP…PETS…PSSI…SPTN Staying Below 30 DMA MYGN…GIS…AMX…CERN…CHU……AFAM…AGN…CHTT…DGIT…ESRX…LAYN…NIHD…NOV…OSIP…RIO…SINA…SOHU…SWN…VMI…MMM Wednesday’s Action Moving Up: FSLR, MA, GS, MON, V, ESRX, PNRA, MS, ZION, BRCM, ONXX, COH, BTU, KBE, KRE, KMT, AFAM Moving Down: STRA, POT, ANR, AEM, PCLN, CNX, ADM, CLF Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – DJIA, SPX, Down – Nasdaq, RUT Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Peggy said...

Dave,
Thanks again for another great commentary. I read your blog faithfully every day and I get so much out of your market insight and technical analysis. Thanks for sharing your gift with so many. I benefit greatly from your expertise.
Peggy