Saturday, April 12, 2008

Markets Break S1 Short Term Support Level In A Big Way

DJIA -256.56, -2.04% S&P 500 -27.72, -2.04% NASDAQ Comp. -61.46, -2.61% Russell 2000 -19.26, -2.72% We have been alerting you of both the short term support within the intermediate term sideways trend and to be aware of earnings season and its potential impact on the market. All it took was Dow bellweather GE to miss earnings estimates and lower second quarter and full year guidance for the market to roll over and and break short term support on Friday. Hmm, if there was any doubt about the significance of these factors before Friday, it should be perfectly clear now. And to think this is just the beginning of earnings season that gets into full swing next week. All four indices broke below the S1 level of last Tuesday's large white candle and the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 also fell below their S2/S3 levels. DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM presented bearish trading opportunities as the indices broke below their S1 support levels. Intriguingly, with more than a 2% drop in all four broad indices, all four fell to their 30 DMA and failed to break and close below. Candidly we can't remember the last time that occured on the same day. We don't know there is anything technically significant about that per se, but it is an intersting occurence. Friday's Action Moving Higher FAST moved higher on a strong earnings announcement BBBY, CF, CLF, MON, POT, UAUA, XLU Moving Down AAPL support bounce failed and moved lower PCLN ascending triangle failed and moved lower Pullbacks BIDU, CELG, CHL, DE, DECK, EBAY, EXPE. FSLR, ISRG, JASO, MEE, MOS, MTL, NKE, RIMM, SCHN, SLB, STLD, STRA, X Brokerage stocks GS, LEH, MER, MS all moved lower FWLT, IBM broke below 30 DMA Wednesday's Downtrending Stock Post AMLN, AMZN, GRMN, NTAP, SBUX, FXI, LFC, PTR all moved lower Only UAUA on this list moved higher on Friday Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Down

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,
Great posts. I do have a question. I am in a MA May 240 call which is now down 20%. With the financials reporting this week etc, does it make sense to sell out now? My stop is set to the stock price of 218.50 and Bruce and I are having a tug of war. I want to buy more at this price (MA at 223) and he wants to sell our options, rather than wait for it to lose 50% or so. I do see that MA has broken to the down side of the pennant flag, and my target for MA is 240, 290. I do see that the markets have broken support. Any suggestions?

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Thanks for replying to my comments. I heard you remind us about earnings, and I took that as a warning that we be mindful of the earnings date of whatever stock we were trading. Silly me, I was short-sighted to think that missed earnings would affect that company's industry (i.e. GRMN).

After GE's missed earnings plunging all the markets and your insights, I now see the bigger picture.

Interesting though that with only 2.5 hours left in today's trading, all the markets are holding above S2.

Should we still be looking to trade strong uptrending stocks and if so, where would be a good entry for FAST? Or are we safer trading SPY, DIA and IWM on a short term basis?