Thursday, April 3, 2008

Markets Inch Higher In Front of Jobs Report

DJIA + 20.20, +0.16% SP500 + 1.78, +0.13% NASDAQ Comp. + 1.91, +0.08% Russell 2000 + 1.30, +0.18% The Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 indices all recovered from an early sell off and closed positive for the day. After two days of profit taking and only modest pull back in prices this may be the ”pause that refreshes” before the markets move higher. However, traders must not be lulled to sleep here and continue to watch on Friday whether markets fall below the short-term support levels established on Wednesday and Thursday. The Unemployment and Non-Farm payroll numbers will be released before the market open tomorrow at 8:30 am ET. The estimate is for unemployment to come in at 5.0% up from 4.8% last month and to lose 40.000 jobs on the non-farm payrolls. Last month on March 7 the market fell 146 points when non-farm payrolls fell 60,000 against an expectation of job gains of 20,000 to 25,000. Technically, the market had already fallen over 600 points in the 6 days prior the March 7 release. So it wasn’t the jobs report that started the market lower, rather it just amplified the existing short term down trend within the intermediate term sideways trend. Interestingly enough the market bottomed on the following Monday, March 10, one trading day, after the jobs report. Tuesday, March 11, the DJIA soared 416 points after the Fed moved to add $200 billion to the financial markets. With the current market near resistance perhaps a negative surprise in the jobs report tomorrow could turn the short-term trend down while a positive surprise could propel the market through resistance. Buckle up! Today’s Action Stocks Moving Higher IYR, MON, NSM, POT, RIMM, SNDK, WYNN, X Support Bounces DE, MOS Unconfirmed Bearish Haramis EXPE, JASO Outcome of Yesterdays Unconfirmed Bearish Haramis AAPL, FXI, PCLN, SNDK, VRTX all failed to confirm today and moved higher. ISRG moved lower but found support at S1. AFL moved lower falling back into the ascending triangle but closed higher than it opened. Gapped Down AMZN, URBN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

2 comments:

PJ said...

Dave,

Did the OB in D.C. last month and since listen/view Thursday's A.M. Caps. Now this, awesome! You are greatly appreciated. Thank you.

PJ

Dave Johnson said...

PJ,

You're welcome!

Dave