SPY Bounces Off Support Price Target as AAPL, BIDU, SHLD Soar...

The SPY bounced on Monday as the Euro rose, TNX interest rates rose 0.33, financial stocks rose and bonds closed slightly lower.  The SPX closed at 1,315.99 above its 1,300 support area.

All nine sectors moved higher on Monday. XLB, XLK, and XLE were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 5.93 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers       2,577          1,957

Decliners            434             582

SPY moved up +2.23 on 177.8 million shares…

AAPL soared 30.90 to 561.28 on 20.5 million shares...

FB -4.20, 34.03 on 168.2 million shares.....

GRPN +81 cents, +6.99% in bull flag following reversal pattern…

C Pattern Entry: SHLD, ALXN, GOOG, ZAGG

C Pattern Setup: CRM, SWKS, DHR, V, A

Daily/Weekly Bull Flags: GRPN, CRUS, SWI, CRM, VECO, MNST, BBBY,, BIIB, BMC, CERN, CTXS, NWSA, ORLY, ROST, VRST, VRTX, WCRX, WFM

MACD Histogram Bullish Divergence: RVBD, CIEN, MCP,CROX, SOHU, VMW, TPX, JDSU, MOS, INFA, F, BIDU, NFLX, QCOM, NNVDA, SBUX, SHLD, VMED, PNRA, MSF, MRVL, MCHP, INTU, INFY, GOLD, FISV, EXPD, CTRP, CHKP, CELG, ADBE, AKAM, ALTR, ALXN,

Technical Commentary:

The SPY bounced and trended higher all day closing at 131.97 near its high of the day on strong but decreasing volume from Friday, further supporting the view that Friday was a potential capitulation level.

Monday Highlights: 

SPY bounces  off price target of 129.86

Volume drop resembles post capitulation bottom

The Euro rose 29 pips, closed 1.2807

TNX +0.33

VIX fell -3.09, below 25 at 22.01

XLF closed up 13 cents

This Week:

Modes bounce in TNX interest rates near the lows of the past nine months,.  If rates continue to rise on a weakening dollar and rising Euro, look for XLF and the SPY to continue to bounce.  If the Euro reverses and breaks support look for XLF and the SPY to reverse Monday’s bounce.

ES bullish engulfing close 1,315, horizontal support 1,290, 1,262

Euro 1.2807, horizontal support 1.2622

TNX near 9 month low of 17.35

99 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…only ROST moved lower…the number of NDX stocks above their 30 DMA increased from 9 to 18 on Monday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included SHLD, AAPL, BIDU, ALXN, ADSK, SIRI, RIMM, SBUX, FFIV, GOLD

Lagging NDX stocks included ROST, TEVA, INFY, AMGN

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included MCP, RVBD, ANR, SWKS, GRPN, CIEN, ZAGG, CROX, CLF, CDE, SOHU, ATI, UAL, CRUS, TSLA, TPX, SWI, SLB, URE, UCO, LVS, DECK, WDC, JDSU, VMW, FAS, RCL, MOS, VECO, GLW, A, V, SINA, COH, X, DE, STI, HLF, INFA, JNPR, SWK, TSL, CRM, FCX, DHR, PCX, CREE, SMH

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FB, FAZ, BAC, LNKD

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 6

TLT, CRUS, SWI, VECO, FAZ, NTES

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

GRPN, ZAGG

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

Staying Below 30 DMA

LNKD, UAL, CHL, LDK, URE, CREE, TSL, STI, WDC, DLR, NKE, ANF, ATI, CRM, CSTR, DE, GLW, IBM, SLB, VMW, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHU, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down

Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to Mixed Open in Pre-Market...FB Set to Open Lower Than Friday's Offering in Pre-Market on 5 Million Shares...

BMO – ES  +5.25 and NQ  +12.75 point to a higher open...SPY is up 46 cents…

XLF is up 4 cents…
Euro is down 28 pips…
TLT is down 38 cents…

Continue to follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

FB…Facebook…set to open lower than offering price on Friday in Pre-Market Open…Down -1.68 on 5 Million shares…

Quoting Up: AAPL, GOOG, BA, BIDU, AMZN, YHOO, FAS, ATI, CLF, LVS, UCO

QUOTING Down:  ROST, NUAN, INFY, MSFT, SIRI, LNKD, FB, TLT, GRPN, FAZ

SPY Pulls Back as Prior to FB Trading, Euro Rises, TNX Flat...

The SPY fell again as the Euro rose, TNX interest rates remained unchanged, financial stocks fell and bonds closed just above unchanged.  The SPX closed at 1,298 just below its 1,300 support area.

All nine sectors moved lower for the second straight day on Friday. XLU, XLB, and XLI were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 3.16 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.56 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers         730             699

Decliners         2,313          1,790

SPY moved down -1.12 to 129.74 on 319.6 million shares…

AAPL rose 26 cents to 530.38 on 26 million shares...

FB completed its IPO at $38, opened at 42.05 around 11:30 am EDT rose to a high of 45.00 and closed at 38.23.

CRM +11.78, +8.80% following earnings and guiding full year expectations higher Thursday after the close

Technical Commentary:

The SPY rose Friday morning until about 11 am EDT.  When FB didn’t begin trading stocks starting pulling back for about an hour.  FB started trading around 11:30 am EDT, about 30 minutes later that originally expected. Stocks rallied for about 45 minutes beginning just before noon, but failed to return to mid-morning highs.  After peaking around 12:40 pm EDT stocks resumed their down trend and made a new closing low since Feb 1.

The SPY reached its chart measuring distance on Friday of 129.86, for the break of support of the April 10 to May 1 range.  SPY volume was its highest level in 2012 and resembles a potential capitulation level.

Friday Highlights: 

SPY reaches support break price target of 129.86

Volume spike resembles capitulation bottom

The Euro rose 97 pips, closed 1.2778

TNX closed unchanged

VIX closed above 25 at 25.10

XLF closed down 16 cents

BAC closed up 4 cents

Next Week:

With interest rates at their lowest close and matching the lows of the past nine months, that seems to suggest the potential for a bounce in interest rates.  If rates rise on a weakening dollar and rising Euro, look for XLF and the SPY to bounce.  If the Euro breaks support expect look for XLF and the SPY to slip further.

ES horizontal support 1,290, 1,262

Euro horizontal support 1.2622

TNX at 9 month low of 17.02

14 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included YHOO, SIRI, INFY, APOL, WYNN, CTSH, TEVA, MAT, INTU, VRTX

Lagging NDX stocks included ADSK, CTRP, FSLR, STX, MU, NVDA, NUAN, MRVL, GOOG, NTAP

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included CRM, FAZ, JNPR

Losing stocks < -2.0% included MCP, GRPN, PCX, WDC, TSL, LNKD, ANR, UAL, SWKS, X, CREE, TSLA, FAS, UCO,SOHU, NTES, CDE, VECO, CIEN, RCL, CLF, SINA, A, CRUS, SWI, URE, LDK, V, STI

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 6

TLT, CRUS, SWI, VECO, FAZ, NTES

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

GRPN

Staying Below 30 DMA

LNKD, UAL, CHL, LDK, URE, CREE, TSL, STI, WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down

Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Set For Higher Open...In Your Face...Facebook Set for IPO This Morning...

BMO - ES  +6.25 and NQ  +9.75 point to a higher open...SPY is up 39 cents area...

XLF is up 8 cents…
Euro is up 27 pips…
TLT is down 33 cents…

Facebook IPO set for today…Record Setting Tech IPO…

Continue to follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up: PCLN, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, FFIV, INFY, BIDU, SHLD, YHOO, CRM, LNKD, VMW, V, FAS, NKE, IBM, GS, CLF

QUOTING Down:  ADSK, AMGN, SNDK, ROST, TLT, FAZ, UCO

  

SPX Drops to 1,304 Following Continued Weakness in Euro, TNX and XLF...

The SPY fell again on a weaker Euro, falling interest rates and financial stocks and rising bonds.  The SPX closed at 1,304 just above its 1,300 support area.

Reports indicate that FB will go public at 38 on Friday and start trading at 11:00 am EDT.  IPO trading is generally very speculative with a lack of historical trading activity.

All nine sectors moved lower on Thursday. XLU, XLE, and XLP were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 6.34 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.06 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers         420             497

Decliners         2,665          2,019

SPY moved down 51 cents on 207 million shares…

AAPL was down -7.09 to 546.07 on 20 million shares...

HLF +7.07, +16.66% following Einhorn rumors...

SPLS -0.84, -5.69% following earnings Wednesday morning

DLTR, ROST and SHLD report earnings this week.

Technical Commentary:

At Midday the SPY fell to 131.50, bounced and rose to 132.25 and then fell and broke the 131.50 support and moved to its break of support target at 130.75.

The Euro fell another 33 pips to close at 1.2681. TNX fell to a new all-time low at 17.02.closed 0.12 lower, at its lowest level since October 4, 2011. JPM collapsed -1.53. The VIX rose 2.22 to 24.49 its highest close since Dec 15.  The VIX is near the critical 25 pivot level.

The Euro continues to fall in overnight trade. The failure of the Euro to find support has been a contributing factor in the fall of the broad market.

XLF closed down 29 cents.

6 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included FSLR, CTRP, GOLD, RIMM, SHLD,  AKAM

Lagging NDX stocks included ORLY, SIRI, DLTR, STX, SPLS, PNRA, EXPE, LINTA, BBBY, BIDU

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included FAZ, NTES

Losing stocks < -2.0% included HLF, TSL, LNKD, ANF, UAL, FAS, TPX, PCX, LDK, CROX, URE, SINA, CIEN, GRPN, SWKS, ATI, GES, SWK, WDC, DLR, MCP, AKS, RCL, TBT, COH, TIF, CLF, CREE, JDSU, LVS, NKE, CMG, STI, MOS, SOHU, V, ZAGG, TSLA, CRM, ZION, RVBD

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 6

TLT, CRUS, SWI, VECO, FAZ, GRPN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

NTES

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

LNKD, UAL

Staying Below 30 DMA

CHL, LDK, URE, CREE, TSL, STI, WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down

Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Flat Open Following Weekly Claims Report...

BMO - ES +1.25 and NQ +2.00 point to a higher open 30 minutes before the open, as ES and SPY bounce from the March support area...Unemployment claims report steady at 370,000…SPY is up 8 cents...The SPY is right at its 132.80 support area...

XLF is flat…
Euro is down 7 pips…
TLT is up 7 cents…

NTES, SHLD gap up...

ORLY, DLTR gap lower...

Look for potential support bounce off of intermediate term sideways trend support levels in some instances accompanied by a bullish divergence, flag support bounce entries on up trending stocks and bear flag and support break on down trending stocks…

Continue to follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up: NTES, SHLD, PCLN, GOOG, CTRP, ICE, HLF, A, CSTR, UCO, SINA, VMW, CREE, DLR, CRM, CLF, FCX, LNKD, CROX, GS, RCL, BIDU, GOLD, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, ROST, AMGN, INFY, SBUX

QUOTING Down:  ORLY, DLTR, FOSL, VOD, WYNN, CMG, CHL, V,

EURO, TNX, XLF, SPY Move Lower as VIX Rises...

The SPY fell again on a weaker Euro, falling interest rates and financial stocks and rising bonds.

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. XLP, XLV, and XLU were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.05 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.97 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers       985           839

Decliners        2,024          1,660

SPY moved down 51 cents on 207 million shares…

AAPL was down -7.09 to 546.07 on 20 million shares...

HLF +7.07, +16.66% following Einhorn rumors...

SPLS -0.84, -5.69% following earnings Wednesday morning

DLTR, ROST and SHLD report earnings this week.

Technical Commentary:

The Euro fell to a low of 126.87 before closing at 1.2714. TNX closed 0.12 lower, at its lowest level since October 4, 2011. JPM fell another -78 cents. The VIX rose 0.30 to 22.27 its highest close since Jan 3.

The Euro rallied in evening trade. If the Euro support holds and rises, it likely would lead to a bounce in interest rates, financial stocks and in the SPY. The Market Forecast indicator did form a bullish cluster on Tuesday and Wednesday.

XLF closed down 21 cents.

Breakout – GOOG

Breakout Setup – EXPE, AMZN, CATM, AMGN

Pullback - UAL, GILD, EBAY, CRUS

Flag Bounce – LNKD, SWI, ROST

Flag Setup – ADM, CHL, FIRE, BGC, LULU, GRMN, URE, DLR, TSL, VRSN, DLTR, WCRX, CTXS, SHLD, BA, CERN, DDD, GWR

Confirmed MACD Divergence – FLEX, FAST

Potential MACD Divergence - SWK, BAC, AKAM, BRCM

Bear Gap - SPLS

32 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included EXPE, GOOG, MU, GMCR, ROST, SRCL, VMED, MRVL, GOLD, FAST

Lagging NDX stocks included FSLR, SPLS, KLAC, LRCX, FFIV, SNDK, NFLX, SHLD, QCOM, STX

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included HLF, SINA, GRPN, FAZ, LNKD ESI

Losing stocks < -2.0% included ANF, MCP, PCX, CIEN, VECO, X, AKS, ANR, INFA, TPX, FAS, ATI, WDC, RVBD, DE, CD, CSTR, TSL, BAC, URE, JDSU, CRUS, CHL, JNPR, DECK, VMW, RCL

Stocks to Watch on Thursday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 8

TLT, LNKD, CRUS, SWI, VECO, FAZ, UAL, GRPN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3

CHL, LDK, URE

Staying Below 30 DMA

CREE, TSL, STI, WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Down

SPY Up in Pre-Market...

BMO - ES +5.50 and NQ +10.00 point to a higher open 35 minutes before the open, as ES and SPY bounce from the March support area…SPY is up 62 cents...

XLF is up 3 cents…
Euro is up 13 pips…
TLT is down 67 cents…

Look for potential support bounce off of intermediate term sideways trend support levels in some instances accompanied by a bullish divergence, flag support bounce entries on up trending stocks and bear flag and support break on down trending stocks… 

Continue to follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up: SINA, FAS, LNKD, CRM, HLF, IBM, SOHU, DE, GS, HUM, CLF, SWI, C, CREE, ATI, TSLA, GOOG, FOSL, AAPL, DLTR, BIDU, AKAM, AMZN, NFLX, BBBY 

QUOTING Down:  ANF, CHL, TLT, FAZ, UCO, VRTX, KLAC, SPLS, VOD

 

SPY Follows Euro Lower as Breadth Strengthens...

The SPY pre-market rally faded after a weaker than expected April retail sales report. The SPY rose to a high of 134.81 and then pulled back to close at 133.34 above its next support level in the 132.80 area. The SPY formed an inverted hammer like candle pattern.

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. XLP, XLY, and XLK were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led advancers 1.87 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.16 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers      1,041          1,165

Decliners        1,958          1,353

SPY moved down 77 cents on 207.6 million shares…

AAPL was down -5.05 to 553.22 on 17 million shares...

A +1.61, +4.14% following earnings after the close on Monday

HD -1.21, -2.43% following earnings Tuesday morning

SPLS, DLTR and ROST report earnings this week.

Technical Commentary:

The Euro continued lower closing at 1.2734. TNX closed 0.11 lower at its lowest level since October 4, 2011. JPM rose 45 cents. The VIX rose 0.10 to 21.97 its highest close since Jan 17.

The SPY will likely continue the short term down trend with the Euro continuing to fall.

XLF closed down 7 cents.

Breakout Setup – ADM, GOOG, AMZN, CATM, AMGN

Pullback - UAL, GILD, EBAY, CRUS

Flag Bounce – EXPE

Flag Setup – LNKD, CHL, FIRE, BGC, LULU, GRMN, URE, DLR, TSL, SWI, ROST, VRSN, DLTR, WCRX, CTXS, SHLD, BA, CERN, DDD, GWR

Confirmed MACD Divergence – AKAM, FLEX, BRCM, FAST

Potential MACD Divergence - SWK, BAC

Bear Flag Bounce - SPLS

45 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included CTRP, FLEX, CTSH, INFY, AKAM, BIDU, ADSK, DLTR, BMC, CHKP

Lagging NDX stocks included FOSL, RIMM, FSLR, WCRX, MU, GMCR, SPLS, SIRI, GOLD, SNDK

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included A, GRPN, ZAGG, SWKS, SWI

Losing stocks < -2.0% included PCX, ANR, MCP, X, ATI, FCX, CDE, CLF, AKS, TSL, SLB, SWK, CREE, RVBD, TSLA, ZION

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 9
TLT, URE, CHL, LNKD, CRUS, SWI, VECO, FAZ, UAL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
GRPN, LDK

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
CREE, TSL

Staying Below 30 DMA
STI, WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Pre-Market Trading Pulls Back After Weaker Than Expected Sales Report...

BMO - ES +0.25 and NQ +8.00 point to a higher open 25 minutes before the open, as ES and SPY bounce from the March support area…SPY is down 3 cents... futures pull back following weaker than expected retail sales report for April...

XLF is up 3 cents…
Euro is down 35 pips…
TLT is up 11 cents…

GRPN +2.81, +24.07% is gapping up following better than expected earnings...

Look for potential support bounce off of intermediate term sideways trend support levels in some instances accompanied by a bullish divergence, flag support bounce entries on up trending stocks and bear flag and support break on down trending stocks…

Continue to follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up: GRPN, LNKD, CRM, A, IBM, CMG, CLF, SINA, VMW, TPX, UCO, JNPR, DLR, GS, SLB, FAS, LVS, DHR, TIF, V, LVS, SWKS, COH, HLF, ISRG, PCLN, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, INFY, BIDU, NFLX, WYNN, COST, ESRX, AKAM, CTSH, ROLY, TEVA, BIDU, EBAY

QUOTING Down:  FAZ, FAST, GOLD

SPY Follows Euro Lower Finds Support at 134...

A modern day Greek trojan horse seems to be creating havoc in Greek politics as rivaling parties can't find a consensus and increasing the likelihood that Greece could be ousted from the Euro-zone. Such a move could lead to severe economic consequences for the country.

The Euro opened lower on Sunday and continued down on Monday breaking its 1.29 support area and falling to 1.2821 at 5 pm.

The SPY opened lower on Monday, rose to a high of 135.61 and then pulled back to close at 134.11 its next support level below 135.00. The SPY's next support level is the 132.80 area. The SPY formed another inverted hammer.

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday.  Defensive sectors XLU, XLV, and XLP were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers led 5.46 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.12 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers       472             615

Decliners        2,578          1,923

SPY moved down -1.50 cents on 163.5 million shares…

AAPL was down -8.49 to 558.22 on 12.6 million shares and formed an inverted hammer like spinning top...

GRPN +1.83, +18.54% as buyers stepped in front of earnings...rose another +2.10, +17.94% after the close to 13.84 following better than expected EPS

BMC +3.52, +8.71% announce shareholder rights plan to prevent a possible hostile takeover following hedge fund acquisition of more than 5% of stock

SPLS, DLTR and ROST report earnings this week.

Technical Commentary:

Financial stocks opened lower on a weak Euro and falling interest rates. TNX closed at its lowest level since October 4, 2011. JPM fell another -1.17. The VIX rose to 21.87 its highest close since Jan 17.

XLF closed down 30 cents.

Monday is a classic example of why we will continue to watch the Euro and TNX as an indication of potential weakness in the SPY.

Breakout – GILD, UAL, BIIB

Breakout Setup – ADM,

Pullback from Resistance - WDC, EBAY, GOOG, AMZN, CATM

Flag Bounce – WCRX, CRUS, AMGN

Flag Setup – LNKD, CHL, FIRE, BGC, LULU, GRMN, URE, DLR, TSL, SWI, ROST, VRSN, DLTR, WCRX, CTXS, EXPE, SHLD, BA, CERN, DDD, GWR

Confirmed MACD Divergence – ZION, FAST

Potential MACD Divergence - AKAM, SWK, BAC, FLEX, BRCM

Bear Flag Setup - ADP, KLAC, PAYX, SPLS

19 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included BMC, VRTX, WCRX, YHOO, APOL, CSCO, GILD, SPLS, STX, EXPE

Lagging NDX stocks included SIRI, AKAM, WYNN, SHLD, DLTR, ORLY, TEVA, PNRA, GOLD, SBUX

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included GRPN, FAZ, LNKE, MCP

Losing stocks < -2.0% included TSLA, FAS, HLF, LVS, TSL, CDE, C, UCO, PCX, ZION, CROX, STI, CREE, TBT, SINA, BAC, SOHU, F, TPX, URE, GS, RVBD, TIF, SLB, VECO, RCL, DE, LDK, JNPR, CMG

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 11

TLT, URE, CHL, LNKD, CRUS, CREE, SWI, TSL, VECO, FAZ, UAL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

LDK, STI

Staying Below 30 DMA

WDC, DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Ten Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to Lower Open Amid Greece Concern and JPM Worries......

BMO - ES -11.25 and NQ -19.25 point to a lower open…

XLF is down 17 cents…
Euro is down 53 pips…
TLT is up 1.32…

                                                                                                                  

Look for potential bullish divergence and support bounce entries on up and sideways trending stocks and bear flag and support break on down trending stocks…

Follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up: BMC, VRTX, DLTR, YHOO, GILD, TLT, FAZ, GRPN

QUOTING Down:  ISGR, GOOG, AAPL, PCLN, AMZN, GOLD, WRM, WYNN, BIDU, FAS, CRM, UCO

SPY Holds Above Support Following JPM Drop...

The SPY opened higher on Friday, rose to 136. 85 and then pulled back to close at 136.02.  The SPY formed an inverted hammer at the mid section of Wednesday’s range, which is the low day of the recent short term down trend.  The SPY has been going sideway’s at support for four days.

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday.  XLK, XLU, and XLV were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers led 1.50 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.52 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange        NYSE       NASDAQ

Advancers      1,198             985

Decliners        1,803          1,502

SPY moved down 41 cents on 153 million shares…

AAPL was down -3.81 to 566.71 on 14.2 million shares and formed an inverted hammer…

NVDA +0.79, +6.36% after reporting earnings on Friday morning

Technical Commentary:

Financial stocks opened lower after JPM disclosed in a conference call on Thursday that it has a $2 billion trading loss from large positions in credit-default swaps that will affect its Q2 results.  JPM was down -3.78 or -9.28% on Friday.  C and BAC were lower on Friday, however WFC, STI and ZION closed higher after opening lower.  Investment banks GS and MS also closed lower.

XLF opened near its low and closed higher notwithstanding the JPM selloff.

The Euro was slightly lower.  TNX was down and the VIX higher.

We will continue to watch the Euro and TNX Monday morning to observe to see if trading holds above recent support and if TNX bounces from the area of its nine month lows. 

Breakout – GILD, UAL, BIIB

Breakout Setup – ADM, WDC, EBAY, GOOG, AMZN, CATM

Flag Bounce – CRUS, STI, ORLY, AMGN

Flag Setup – CHL, FIRE, BGC, LULU, GRMN, URE, DLR, LNKD, TSL, SWI, ROST, VRSN, DLTR, WCRX, CTXS, EXPE, SHLD, BA, CERN, DDD, GWR

Confirmed MACD Divergence – ZION, BRCM, FAST

Potential MACD Divergence - AKAM, SWK, BAC, FLEX

Bear Flag Setup - ADP, KLAC, PAYX, SPLS

53 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included NFLX, NVDA, BBBY, VRTX, LRCX, MYL, MRVL, BIIB, FFIV, INTC

Lagging NDX stocks included GMCR, APOL, SIRI, CSCO, INFY, YHOO, GOOG, GOLD, BIDU, EBAY

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included LDK, CIEN, TPX, CROX, FAZ, ZAGG, DECK, NTES

Losing stocks < -2.0% included C, PCX, GS, ANR, LNKD, CSTR, FAS, TSLA

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 11

TLT, URE, CHL, LNKD, CRUS, CREE, SWI, TSL, VECO, FAZ, UAL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

LDK, STI

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

WDC

Staying Below 30 DMA

DLR, NTES, NKE, ATI, ANF, AGI, ZAGG, CRM, FCX, IBM, SLB, CMG, DHR, ESI, FAS, FCX, SMH, SWKS, TIF, UCO, V, AKS, ANR, JNPR, X, HLF, SOHO, DECK, HUM, CROX, LVS, FAZ, CIEN, PCX, RCL, RVBD, CLF, MCP, SWK, TPX, X, ZION, INFA, BAC, A, TBT, F, JDSU, C, GS, TSLA, COH, GRPN, MOS, ICE, SINA, GES, CDE

Six Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Edge Down...Following JPM After Close Announcement of $2 Billion Trading Loss on Credit Default Swaps...

BMO - ES -10.00 and NQ -16.50 point to a lower open following JPM announcement after the close regarding a $2 billion trading loss on credit default swaps…JPM is down -3.41 in pre-market…

XLF is down 30 cents…
Euro is down 5 pips…
TLT is up 84 cents…

                                                                                                                  

Look for potential bullish divergence and support bounce entries on up and sideways trending stocks and bear flag and support break on down trending stocks…

Follow your rules for entry, exit, adjust stops to protect profits at this time according to your rules...

Quoting Up: TLT, FAZ

QUOTING Down:  AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN, QCOM, JPM, FFIV, WYNN