Friday, December 9, 2016

More New Record Highs as DIA, SPY and IWM Make New All-time Closing Highs...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK
Sideways: XLV, XLRE, XLP
Down Trend: XLU

XLK moved from Sideways to Up with new high and second day closing above four month channel.
XLP moved from Down to Sideways with close above Nov 29 resistance high.
Watching XLRE for potential test of Thursday’s breakout


Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,484 to 1,531 on the NYSE and advancers led 1,624 to 1,156 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, advancers led on NASDAQ, +9
Thursday – weakened, advancers led, +7
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +9
Tuesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +8
Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +8


Oil futures were up .52 to close at 51.48, bouncing with a bull flag pattern entry on Friday.   


SPY up 1.36 at 226.15 on 87.9 million shares, 6% below average volume
VIX down .89 at 11.75
TLT down 1.48 at 117.50…on 14.6 million shares, 29% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.78%, DIA +0.72%, SPY +0.60%, IWM +0.20%,

DIA, IWM and SPY new all-time closing high.  QQQ within pennies of high.

Buying started to lift lagging sector XLP, XLV and XLU on Friday.

IWM, DIA, SPY, XLE, XLY, XLF and XLB each made another  new closing high on Friday.

XLE breaks out of its pennant pattern to a new high…
NVDA and MUR are bull flag pattern setups
CCL is a horizontal resistance breakout setup
NCLH and RCL are new highs

Steel stocks X, AKS, MT, CLF, VALE, STLD, NUE, SCHN and MTL dis start a bull flag price pattern on Thursday.

SPX up 13 points at 2,259

SPX Leaders AVGO, ALXN, MOS, RIG, GM, UAL, AAL, BMY, NRG, DPS, CAH, ABC, CVS, WVA, KO, PFE, ESRX, TRIP, AA, MNST, GCI, EXC, FLR, AMGN, MCK, SWN, CAG, AGN, COP, HSY, LKQ, EBAY, MRK, AEE, OXY, GOOGL, KHC


QQQ is in sideways trend at its intermediate-term resistance and is horizontal resistance breakout setup.    

NDX point gainers: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AVGO, WBA, AMGN, FB, KHC, ALXN, ESRX, COST, GILD and MDLZ


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS
EPS Positive Reactions
COST, BOBE, FIVE, BIG, THO, CTRP, DE, VEEV, GME, BURL, SINA, DLTR, WB, ADI, CPB, HRL, JEC, SIG, MRVL, ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI,
EPS Negative Reactions
WDAY, AMBA, SWHC, ULTA, ADSK, URBN, PDCO, MDT, TSN, GPS, CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX,


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: DLTR, MUR, BURL, FTI, BHI, STLD, NUE, AKS, X, SCHN, CHTR, NFLX, FOSL, TGT, MGM, GD,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: JD, UTX, CCL, APA, JWN, HIG, LRCX, ADI, INCY, FCX, STX, FB, CTXS, MU, WB, NTAP, FISV,

Horizontal Breakouts include: SKYW, SBUX, AAPL, ATI, MCD,


New Highs include: HES, RCL, NCLH, BA, MMM, STI, CE, CC, BBBY, COST, JPM, BAC, GS, HBAN, ZION,  MS, USB, CMA, KEY, RF, ICE, TRV, UPS, CSX, ADP, PWR, LNG, ETFC, AAL, SAVE,  LUV, ALK, DAL, UAL, XLNX, CHK, MAR, HES, HAL, BBY, PCAR, MU, C, CFG, SCHW, FDX, AAP, PAYX, SQ, WDC, 

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 97, bullish

55 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

67 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
AMGN, EA, KHC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
LVNTA


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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