Friday, November 18, 2016

Small Cap IWM Makes New High as Broader SPY, QQQ Pause Following Strong Week...


Two of ten sectors moved higher and one was unchanged on FridayXLE, XLRE and XLF were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures up .82 to close at 46.32.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,593 to 1,426 on the NYSE and advancers led 1,500 to 1,265 on the NASDAQ.

For the week ended November 18, eight of ten sectors moved higher.
XLE +2.40%, XLF +2.26%, XLY +1.86%, XLK +1.35%,
SPY +0.96%,
Lagging sectors XLU +0.56%, XLRE +0.47%, XLI +0.41%, XLB +0.35%, XLP -0.08%, XLV -1.06%,

YTD 224
Leading Sectors: XLE +17.92%, XLI +15.64%, XLF +14.52%, XLB +11.29%, XLK +10.58%,
SPY +7.18%,
Lagging Sectors: XLU +6.95%, XLY +3.89%, XLP +0.02%, XLV -3.23%, XLRE -5.50%


Friday – weakened, advancers led on the NASDAQ, +2
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led, +3
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Monday – weakened, advancers led, +6


SPY down .49 at 218.50 on 86.2 million shares, 9% below average volume
VIX down .50 at 12.85
TLT down .35 at 120.80…on 13.5 million shares, 41% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.53%, SPY -0.22%, QQQ -0.37%, DIA -0.44%,


IWM new all-time highs on monthly option expiration Friday.

SPY closes at resistance on a test after its new high close on Thursday
SPY is a horizontal resistance breakout test
SPX down 6 points at 2,181
SPX Leaders: ROST, WDC, WY, CRM, MOS, GCI, SPLS, COP, YUM, DVN, CMG, HBAN, CTL, WYNN, LOW, PLD, INTU, DSU, RIG, FTR, FIS, SWN, DLR
VIX did NOT confirm the SPX pullback

QQQ in sideways trend pulling back at short-term resistance
NDX point gainers: AMZN, ROST, QCOM, CSCO, INTU, AAPL, WDC, TXN, and NVDA

Steel stocks pause after strong 12-day rally.   


Airline stocks HA, AAL, DAL, LUV ALK and UAL continue rising on Friday. 


Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS, Oct - Nov
EPS Positive Reactions
ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI, MAR, SYY, FDC, RACE, CTSH, PCLN, MGM, LVS, UBNT, SLCA, SBUX, MCHP, FOSL, MHK, CAR, RIG, DDD, YELP, SHOP, ABC, SQ, HSIC, ZTS, DVN, NBL, ANTM, ADP, EA, VRSK, ADM, HRS, MOS, CHKP, COH, TSO, RCL, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, UBS, BIDU, CRUS, EXPE, MO, CVX, FFIV, WDC, COP, DOW, AKAM, JNPR, BA, NCR, OI, FLIR, ROL, TSS, LMT, KEY, FCX, VLO, BHI, SAVE, AKS, TMUS, MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, DRI, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX, KORS, NTES, TRIP, CVS, ENDP, NWSA, ALB, IFF, EXPD MNST, ATVI, FSLR, WYNN, CS, APA, FB, UVE, AIG, CHTR, PAYC, DATA, CAVM, BABA, X, GILD, HLF, ILMN, NFX, DO, SCTY, AMZN, MCK, ABC, CAH, GT, ABBV, LM, COG, CA, AMGN, AET, LITE, XOM, CLF, ORLY, NEM, POT, AAPL, EW, CMG, LUV, CMCSA, UA, P, WHR, PNRA, JBLU, GM, MMM, NLSN, WAT, SHW, MAS, PNR, MCO, EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions
SWKS, LBTYA, CI, QCOM, FOXA, GOOGL, PSX, SKYW, BX, CA, TWTR, UPS, TSLA, MO, NXPI, STT, GD, KO, ESRX, VRTX, PCAR, AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC


______________________

SStrong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: CSX, NTAP, BBBY, CHTR, MAR, NCLH, NFLX, PAYX, PCAR, PCLN, WFM, XLNX, AXP, BA, CAT, JPM, MMM, UNH, UTX, LMT, MLM, HAS, HIG, ICE, STI, RCL, JWN, TGT, AKS, ATI, NUE, SCHN, CE, FTI, PWR, BIIB, BMRN, ESRX, GILD, INCY, REGN, VRTX, BBY, FOSL, SWN, AAP, SLB, DVN, MCHP

Bull Flag Bounces include: ZION, TRV, CHTR,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: STX, WDC, LNG, TMUS, SQ, DAL, ALK, LUV, SAVE, WFC, HSY, COST, DISCA, EXPE, FOXA, JD, MXIM, HAL, BHI, CHK, HES, APA, MUR, RRC, AKAM, CHKP, CTSH, CTXS,

Horizontal Breakouts include: USB, ULTA, DLTR,

New Highs include: NVDA, ADP, CC, AAL, UAL, MCD, FDX, MU, LRCX, KLAC, TXN, MS, GS, SCHW, CMA, CFG, HBAN, RF, ADI, C, CCL, STLD, ADSK, X, SKYW, BAC, ETFC, SBUX, FISV, CMCSA,

Horizontal Break of Support Setups include: CSCO, AMZN, MDLZ, GOOGL, TSLA,

Break of Support: FB, NEM, NTES, TRIP, ATVI, CERN, 


______________________


Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  HAR, BBY, UAL, CNC, MUR, AAPL, SPLS, HP, CHK, WYNN, WY, FOSL, RIG, APA, FTR, LUV, HES, SWN, CFG, IPG, HBAN, TGT, KSU, EFX, RF, RRC, BBT, NFX, IP, EXC, ALK, NOV, PLD, CMA, DAL, LEN, CAG, UNM, TW, OKE, BAC, MCD, MS, OXY, PNC, DGX, +10, 7,  +4, 93
SPX losers:  MNK, GPS, FSLR, TDG, AGN, TDC, PVH, SYMC, TIF, WAT, PSA, ETN, VMC, VFC, MLM, KORS, EXR, F, ABBV, -4, 21

NDX gainers:  LMCA, JD, NTAP, MU, AAL, LRCX, LBTYA, ROST, AMAT, NVDA, ALXN, STX, QVCA, ISRG, DLTR, MAR, SWKS, ADI, ULTA, SIRI, MDLZ, ADSK, INTU, DISCA,  +4, 26
NDX losers:  SHPG, REGN, SYMC, ILMN, -4, 4,

YTD: 224
SPX Leaders:  OKE, FCX, NEM, SE, URBN, MLM, PWR, NAVI, CMI, HPE, (362, +21, > 10p 230, +16)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, GCI, TRIP, PRGO, AGN, HRB, MCK, PBI, SIG, EQR

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, NTAP, TMUS, MU, ULTA, QCOM, TXN, LRCX, (64, +7, >10p 39, +5)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, TRIP, ALXN, SRCL, MYL, NCLH, ILMN, VRTX, REGN, GILD

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, CVX, JPM, MRK, GS, IBM, MMM, JNJ, WMT (23, +0, >10p 12, +0)
DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, KO, HD, PFE, GE, TRV


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 94, bullish

36 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Friday.

62 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
QCOM, SRCL

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
MAT, MDLZ, MYL, ORLY

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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