Friday, December 11, 2015

SPY Breaks Support on Volume...Decliners Swamp Advancers...Oil Hits 7-year Low...

All nine sectors moved lower on FridayXLU, XLF and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 7.12 to 1 on the NYSE and 5.63 to 1 on the NASDAQ.


Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – mixed, mixed
Wednesday – mixed, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down 3.99 at 201.88 on 211.1 million shares, heaviest volume since Oct 2
VIX up 5.05 at 24.39…
TNX down 1.00 at 21.39…
TLT up 1.92 at 123.76…on 12.3 million shares
XLF down .53 at 23.45…on 72.7 million shares

AAPL down 2.99 at 113.18 on 46.8 million shares
FB down 3.30 at 102.12 on 26.4 million shares

Technical Commentary:
DIA -1.79%, SPY -1.94%, IWM -2.23%, QQQ -2.30%.

Oil fell to a seven-year low at 35.41 as the SPX broke short-term support and fell to its lowest level in seven weeks.

SPY closed just below November’s support low of 202.18 closing below horizontal support.  VIX jumped to a nine-week high.

TNX fell below its 21.78 close on Dec 2 the day Fed Chair Yellen indicated the Fed may raise rates in Dec.  On Sep 17 when the FOMC chose not to raise rates due to global volatility concerns, the SPX sold off more than 140 points by Sep 29 and VIX jumped from 18 to 28.  Since Yellen’s Dec 2 comments VIX has moved from15 to 24.

FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday with the announcement Wed afternoon to raise or not raise.   

WFM +8.59% on buyout rumors.
ADBE +2.77% on strong EPS.
GLW +5.60% selling joint venture interest to DOW.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is down at 34. 

Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY =...204.18
QQQ = 111.84, 112.81
IWM = 113.60…
                   
Support Levels
SPY = 201.65, 198.94
QQQ = 109.48
IWM = 111.54

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Setups
Horizontal Breakout: MYL, ALXN, STX, ADBE, PLAY, SEDG, NCLH,
Diagonal Breakout: AMBA, AA,
Bull Flag: ATVI, NVDA, AMAT, ISRG, MNST, AVGO, JD, NFLX, DLTR, ROST, SWKS, VRSK, LRCX, NTES, VRSN, YELP, QRVO, PANW, SONC, CSIQ, CRUS, W, DAL, ULTA, LC
At Support: ILMN, SCHW, ETFC, BABA 

Moves
New Highs: MAT, WFM,
H Breakout: WFM
Gap Up: TLT, VXX, ADBE, GLW
Support Break: CRM
______________________


6 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

26 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ADBE, CERN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 17
AAL, ADSK, AMGN, AMZN, CA, COST, FAST, GOOG, GRMN, LVNTA, MSFT, NXPI, SBUX, SNDK, TSLA, WYNN, YHOO


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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