Friday, July 31, 2015

SPY, QQQ Higher in July...Small Caps IWM Lower...

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…the strongest sectors were XLU, XLV and XLY…the weakest sector was XLE.
 
Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.69 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.38 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – unchanged, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down .32 at 210.50 on 91.2 million shares
VIX down .01 at 12.12…
TNX down .63 at 22.05…
TLT up .90 at 122.53…
XLF down .08 at 25.21…

AAPL down 1.07 at 121.30 on 42.8 million shares
FB down 1.20 at 94.01 on 46.5 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.55%, QQQ -0.12%, SPY -0.15%, DIA -0.30%.

Earnings reactions continued to lead market action on Friday with positive gains in EXPE, CCE, RCL, TPX, WU, FE, AMGN, UHS, MOH, YRCW, COLM and WETF.  PCLN, NCLH and CCL were higher in sympathy with earnings from EXPE and RCL.

Losing earnings reactions included LNKD and OCN which joined other big earnings losers this week ESI, WFM, TWTR, YELP and BIDU.  


SPY and QQQ closed higher in the month of July after a down month in June.  IWM which led the broad indices with a gain on Friday finished lower in July.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Earnings week of Aug 3
SUM, AXTA, FSLR, LC, ETSY, FIT, HABT, NCLH, PCLN, SEDG, TSLA, GOGO, MBLY, MNST, MYL, SUNE, UBNT, JCP, JD,


Q1 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – EXPE, CCE, MOH, YRCW, WAGE, COLM, RCL, WETF, TPX, WU, AEE, FE, PKI, TUC, AMGN, VLO, UHS, WDC, AEL, ALGT, EEFT, GILD, JBLU, SHOP, SKX, X, SSNC, BWLD, PODD, SVU, NUVA, SCTY, ULTI, WYNN, CTRP, FISV, SLCA, SPWR,  NCLH, AMZN, P, MXIM, JNPR, V, SBUX, LUV, QLIK, SNDK, TXN, UA, WHR, GM, VRSN, CHKP, FFIV, FTNT, LVS, PKG, TMO, TSCO, VMW, ACE, APH, OC, BA, CHKP, IPG, CLI, CMG, LVS, MANH, TRV, VMW, LAD, HOG, WWW, ZION, HAS, HAL, GOOG, HTZ, HON, GE, NFLX, SCHW, EBAY, C, USB, DAL, BAC, WFC, JPM, NKE, AA

More than 10% - EXPE, CCE, MOH, YRCW, WAGE, COLM, SHOP, SKX, X, SSYS, BWLD, SVU, P, FTNT, SNDK, GOOG, GOOGL, HTZ, NFLX,

Negative Reactions – LNKD, FEYE, OCN, ESI, FB, MAR, SSYS, TWTR, YNDX, YELP, BIDU, BIIB, TRIP, STT, AAL, FSL, KLAC, MCD, UNP, SAVE, CELG, CA, CMCSA, ETFC, CAT, DOW, FCX, MMM, OSTK, IBM, KO, QCOM, AXP, AAPL, IBKR, ILMN, XLNX, VZ, BEAV, BHI, LLTC, MSFT, YHOO, EXAS, STI, UNH, MAT, KEY, YUM, FAST, CUDA, MU


More than -10% - LNKD, OCN, ESI, WFM, TWTR, YELP, BIDU, BIIB, TRIP, GIMO, SCSS, BEAV, SWI, CUDA, MU

Reversal in progress – LAD,


Reversal of Initial Reaction – HTZ, HON, GE, AA


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 211.45, 212.55...
QQQ = 113.17, 114.39
IWM = 123.71, 125.09…

Support Levels
SPY = 210.82, 206.80...
QQQ = 110.62, 109.78…

IWM = 121.01, 120.27...


The SPX Market Forecast is turned up at 60.

__________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: AIG, CSIQ, JNPR, MFRM, SCHW, SOHU, SONC, SVXY, X, MSFT, ROST, WBA, WYNN
Bull Flag: AMBA, CYBR, DAL, GPRO, MS, PANW, SCTY, SHOP, SLCA, SPWR, SNDK, WDC
Bear Flag: IWM, YELP

Moves
New Highs: UA, MNST,
H Breakout: P, SHAK, TLT
Bull Flag Bounce: SPLK
Bounce: FIT, MFRM,
Gap Up: EXPE, PCLN, CCE, RCL, TPX, NCLH, WU, FE, AMGN, UHS, MOH, YRCW, COLM, WETF, CCL,
Gap Down: LNKD, OCN, FEYE

Support Break: TBT

______________________

Watch List Stocks
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: EXPE, SHAK, RCL, TPX, FIT, NCLH, P, MFRM, DEPO, CCL, SOHU, UPL, ACAD 
                                                       
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: LNKD, SUNE, FEYE, TASR, RAX, SCTY, FSLR, UNG, SUM, BABA


44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: AMGN, SPLS, NFLX, DISCA, FAST, AKAM, KLAC, PCLN

Lagging NDX stocks included: MU, LRCX, YHOO, AVGO, STX, NTAP, FB


NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ADBE, CHKP, TSCO

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
MU, TSLA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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