Tuesday, September 23, 2014

European PMI Weaker...Syrian Strikes Concern as Broad Market Continue Lower...FB, GPRO New All-time High, AAPL, MU Rally...

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday…XLK, XLU and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLP was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengtheneddecliners led advancers for the third straight day2.45 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – mixed, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 1.14 at 198.01 on 111.1 million shares
TNX down .31 at 25.35…
TLT up .71 at 115.45...
XLF down .16 at 23.33 on 32.3 million shares

AAPL up 1.58 at 102.64 on 63.2 million shares
FB up 1.49 at 78.29…on 36.6 million shares

Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.27%, SPY -0.57%, DIA -0.70%, IWM -0.93%.

Futures were lower following a better than expected China PMI and a lower European PMI.  After an early morning rally broad indexes pulled back and finished lower.  NDX was the strongest on big moves in FB, AAPL and MU.

Breadth strengthened but was still negative on Tuesday.  FB, GPRO and AMBA made new all-time closing highs and several other stocks strengthened.

DIA and QQQ are clearly still a bull flag pattern and QQQ formed an inverted hammer.  SPY is also a bull flag pattern but getting close to a similar low.  The SPY also formed an inverted hammer.  If SPY makes a similar low we will look for a bullish divergenceIf the SPY breaks support, we will shift to defensive so be on alert.


Five sectors XLB, XLF, XLK, XLP and XLV are also in a bull flag pattern and have positive structure.  XLU, XLY and XLI are neutral near support.  XLE is down trending.

Did you see the setups posted during the day?  If not, look in the day post and comment.

BABA -2.72, -3.03% fell on day three of trading.  BABA closed at 87.17, -5.53 below its opening price of 92.70 on Friday.

BBBY +4.86, +7.75% after the close on a positive earnings reaction.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 200.00, 201.37, 204.32...
QQQ = 99.75, 101.13…
IWM = 115.73, 117.06, 118.76...

Support Levels
SPY = 197.46, 196.24, 195.16...
QQQ = 98.87, 97.82, 96.94…

IWM = 112.89, 111.56, 109.86...

Earnings this Week: AZO, BBBY, BBRY, CCL, MU, NKE, PAYX,

Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – LULU, PANW, ULTA, MFRM, SPLK, AVGO, CRM, GPS, TFM, FL, AMAT, CSIQ, GME, HPQ, PCLN, NTES, ROST, SINA, NVDA, MNST, ANR, FSLR, GTAT, LNKD, SFUN, SSYS, SUNE, UBNT, YOKU, AKS, AMGN, CHRW, ESRX, HCA, HES, LRCX, TSN, TWTR, WYNN, X, YNDX, CMG, BIIB, ISRG, SWI, UA, VRSN, AAPL, APD, CA, CHKP, CMCSA, CTXS, DAL, DECK, DOW, FFIV, FB, FTI, GD, LXK, LMT, NBR, NDAQ, NOK, OSTK, ORLY, PETS, RHI, STLD, SWK, TSCO, TXN, WHR, XRX, ZION, BX, C, GOOGL, GS, HON, INTC, KSU, JPM, PM, SCSS, SWKS, URI, AA, STZ, APOL, BKS, KBH, MON, MU, NKE, SCHN,

More than 10% - ULTA, LULU, PANW, MFRM, SPLK, TWTR, CMG, BIDU, BIIB, ISRG, LNKD, OSTK, SWI, SFUN, SSYS, SUNE, UA, VRSN, X

Negative Reactions – AZO, ADBE, KKD, CIEN, BBY, QIHU, TSL,  ADSK, CREE, GOGO, JASO, JDSU, JWN, M, RAX, YOKU, SCTY, YELP, CTSH, MYL, AEM, AET, AKAM,  BWLD, BZH, CL, CMI, COP, DDD, ESI, GLW, GRMN, HLF, JEC, KRFT, LNG, MTW, RYL, SLCA, UPL, UPS, VRTX, XOM, ALK, ALXN, AMZN, ANGI, ATI, BA, CAT, CELG, DHI, DNKN, EA, ETFC, FCX, GM, HOG, ILMN, JNPR, KLAC, KMB, KO, LLTC, MCD, NFLX, P, PHM, QCOM, SBUX, STI, STO, T, TPX, TRIP, TRV, UTX, V, XLNX, AMD, BAC, BHI, JCI, JNJ, LVS, MAT, SLB, SNDK, STX, USB, YHOO, FAST, FDO, CAMP, BBBY, GIS, CCL, WAG,

More than -10% - AMD, ANGI, BWLD, CAMP, DHI, HLF, MXIM, P, SNDK, XLNX,

Reversal in progress – AMZN, ATI, FAST, GIS, GRMN, ILMN, KO, KRFT, LLTC, P, RYL, SNDK, STX, XLNX


Reversal of Initial Reaction – KKD, AET, AKAM, ALXN, BA, BAC, BBY, BBBY, BZH, CELG, DNKN, EA, ETFC, FDO, GOGO, JNJ, JWN, KLAC, KO, LNG, M, NFLX, RAX, SLCA, STI, TPX, TRV, TSL, UPL, USB, VRTX, YELP, YHOO, APOL, KBH, MON,


The SPY Market Forecast green line is pointed down at 83.

____________________

Setups for Wednesday
Horizontal Breakout:  FB, AAPL, AMBA, MBLY, GOGO, NTAP
Diagonal Breakout:  CELG, GILD, TWTR
Bull Flag: BBY, SWKS, NXPI, AVGO, X, SNDK, TXN, XLNX, C, MS, STI, ZU, ADSK, ETFC, IBM, RCL, SCHW, YHOO, TSL
Potential Bullish Divergence: UA, AMZN, GRMN, NFLX, SBUX, WDC
Gap Up: BBBY

At Support: AIG, BX, CAR, CRM, FEYE, GME, HPQ, JASO, SWI, TSLA  

______________________

24 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MU, FB, NXPI, AAPL, YHOO, CELG, VIP, ADBE, WYNN, BIIB

Lagging NDX stocks included: CHTR, DISCA, VIAB, EQIX, MAT, MNST, ATVI, ILMN, LINTA, WFM

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: GPRO, MBLY, GOGO, SFUN, YY

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: BBRY, BABA, GME, FAS

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 36
NTAP, COST, CERN, AMGN, CTXS, MSFT, MNST, ADP, MNST, ROST, MAR, PAYX, FISV, AVGO, KLAC, ALTR, BRCM, TXN, NXPI, SNDK, GMCR, DTV, VRTX, SPLS, DLTR, QCOM, INTU, AAPL, LBTYA, ADSK, FB, GILD, GOOG, REGN, XLNX, SIAL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1  
CELG                                                

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
AKAM, CHKP, CHTR, CMCSA, CSCO, FAST, FFIV, INTC, LLTC, WFM,
                                                                                             
Staying Below 30 DMA
ADP, AMAT, BIDU, CA, CHRW, ESRX, EXPD, ISRG, LMCA, MXIM, MYL, SBAC, SYMC, TRIP, VIAB, VRSK, YHOO, BBBY, DISH, EQIX, ILMN, MDLZ, MU, NVDA, ORLY, SIRI, CTRX, EXPE, KRFT, ADBE, AMZN, ATVI, FOXA, LINTA, NFLX, STX, TSLA, VIP, ALXN, HSIC, EBAY, SBUX, SRCL, TSCO, DISCA, MAT, ADI, VOD, BIIB, WDC, GRMN, PCLN, PCAR, CTSH, WYNN

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

1 comment:

Gary said...

Dave,

Although I scan through the market intraday, your uncanny sense of the market always amazes me.I looked at most of the same charts earlier in the day and had been adjusting the AAPL diag breakout set-up for a few days now and it filled today. You're comments last night on shortening the time in a trade while the market is going sideways struck a chord with me. Keep up the good work and thank you so much for taking the time to post here. I'm still interested in learning how to trade futures!!

Gary