Friday, May 9, 2014

DJIA New All-time New High Close...SPX, NDX, RUT Rally...PCLN Bounces...

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLV, XLY and XLP were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.

Sector Posture 
Positive trend: XLE, XLP, XLU
Neutral trend near resistance: XLB, XLI, XLK
Neutral trend near support: XLF, XLV, XLY

Breadth strengthened…as advancers led decliners 1.39 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.13 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY up .28 at 187.96 on 83.7 million shares
VIX down .51 at 12.92…
TNX up .21 at 26.23…
TLT down .36 at 111.24...
XLF down .01 at 21.94 on 23.9 million shares, below average volume

AAPL down 2.45 at 585.54 on 10.4 million shares
FB up .48 at 57.24…on 52.5 million shares, below average volume


Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.92%, QQQ +0.37%, DIA +0.22%, SPY +0.15%.

DJIA all-time closing high at 16,583.34
XLP all-time closing high at 44.51
VIX at lowest level of past 3 months
IWM forms bullish engulfing pattern
IWM intermediate term support area of 107 – 109 continues to attract buyers
Sector breadth continues to strengthen with…
XLB closes within 20 cents of all-time closing high
XLI closes within 14 cents of all-time closing high
XLK closes within 47 cents of all-time closing high

It seems many are concerned with the difference between the weaker IWM -3.35% YTD and the SPY +3.21% YTD and are suggesting that this single piece of market data should create fear, concern and worry in a trader’s mind.  If this single piece of data is worrisome, why is the VIX at its lowest level in over three months?

Chart Signals’ view is those that are concerned over this single piece of data are falling into the “ignore the weight of the evidence trap” and are choosing to play the “we need to be fearful because last year we said the market had gone too high and now that it has had 6% correction in January and consolidated in a healthy trading range for two months and the IWM has had a 9.97% correction since March 4, something is wrong that the market hasn’t gone higher yet” game.

Yes, we know that is a long name for a game that would never make it on the cover of a game box and hopefully you get the point.

Bottom Line: Don’t confuse correlation with causation, they are not the same thing.

CMCSA Bull Flag…


                     (click image to enlarge)


 Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 187.17, 189.70…
QQQ = 86.90, 87.88…
IWM = 113.84, 115.25…

Support Levels
SPY = 184.96, 183.37, 181.38
QQQ = 85.98, 85.09, 84.16
IWM = 110.12, 108.91, 106.99


Earnings Released:
Monday: AEIS, AIG, PFE, TSN, VECO, YY
Tuesday: ATVI, ALL, ARWR, CBOE, DTV, DISCA, DIS, EA, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, HSIC, LBTYA, MRO, MOS, TRIP, WFM
Wednesday: CAR, CTSH, CTRP, FWLT, HUM, GMCR, MCP, PRGO, PRU, SCTY, SFUN, TSLA, FOXA, Z
Thursday: APA, DISH, FNMA, FXCM, JAZZ, LMCA, MNST, NVDA, PCLN, REGN, SUNE, UBNT,
Friday: MHR, SSYS


Q1 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – APA, CTRP, FNMA, MNST, FOXA, GMCR, PRU, SCTY, Z, ATVI, ALL, DTV, EA, HUM, TRIP, WYNN, ESI, MA, TMUS, TPX, YELP, CTRX, TSO, ANR, GRMN, ENR, LVLT, PBI, TWX, CHRW, CNX, DNB, FISV, MAR, VRSK, WLP, MGM, MRK, NOK, S, UTHR, BWLD, AAPL, AET, ALXN, ANGI, BA, BHI, BIDU, BTU, BX, C,COG, CTXS,  DAL, DAVE, DECK, DHI, DO, DV, ETFC, FCX, GE, GILD, GME, HOG, HAL, HAS, HOG, IBKR, INTC, JNJ, KO, LPNT, LRCX, MS, NXPI, POT, RF, SCHW, SNDK, SPWR, STI, SWK, SWKS, TKR, TRV, UNP, URI, WFC, XRX, YHOO

Negative Reactions AEIS, AIG, ARWR, CAR, CBOE, CTSH, DIS, DISCA, DISH, FEYE, FXCM, GRPN, JAZZ, MCP, MOS, MRO, NVDA, PFE, PRGO, REGN, SFUN, SUNE, SSYS, TSLA, TSN, UBNT, VECO, WFM, YY,  MTW, AKAM, DVA, EXPE, KRFT, LNKD, K, VIAB, VRTX, CLX, JDSU, WDC, EBAY, ESRX, SEE, PNRA, STX, SWI, TWTR, ADM, BMY, CHKP, COH, DDD, GT, PCAR, SAVE, SOHU, ACI, AKS, ALTR, AMGN, AMZN, ATI, BAC, BBRY, BIIB, BRCM, CELG, CLF, CREE, F, FAST, FFIV, GOOG, IBM, JCI, JPM, KLAC, KMB, LLTC, LLY, LVS, LXK, MMM, MU, MXIM, NSC, NUE, P, PG, QCOM, SIRI, STLD, STT, T, UA, UNH, UPS, V, VMW, VZ, XLNX, YNDX, ZION, ZNGA, 

Reversal in progress – BRCM, LLTC, NUE, STLD, ZION

Reversal of Initial Reaction – AKS, ATI, BAC, CELG, F, IBM, KMB, LVS, MMM, MU, PG, SIRI, T, UPS, YNDX, ANGI, BIDU, NFLX, RF, INTC


The SPY Market Forecast green line is flat at 77.

____________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: AAL, CTRP, FAS, NKE, SPY, SWKS, ZION, SFUN, V, COST, ESRX, GILD, MNST, ROST, TRIP, GMCR,
Diagonal Breakout: ETFC, GLW, SCHW, SCSS, STI, DDD, FB, NFLX, SBUX,
Bull Flag: ATI, HOG, SPWR, TLT, Z, AAPL, CELG, CMCSA, GRMN, WYNN,     
Potential Bullish Divergence: IBM, CIEN, P, AMZN,
Gap Up:  
Gap Down:  
Bear Flag: YELP, YNDX, ADBE, CTSH, XLNX,
At Support:
C- Pattern: TRIP, MSFT, MNST, GMCR, FFIV, FB, CMCSA, AKAM,

Moves
New Highs: SNDK,
Gap Up:
Gap Down: SSYS, UBNT,
H Breakout: MU,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce: KKD, TPX,  
Bounce
MACD Divergence Bounce: MSFT,
Bear Flag

Support Break:

______________________


64 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, DTV, SYMC, CTRX, PCLN, ILMN, NFLX, WYNN, TSLA, VRTX

Lagging NDX stocks included: MYL, NVDA, WDC, DISCA, NXPI, LINTA, CA, FISV, AVGO, MXIM

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: SFUN, TSL, CTRP, KKD, SPWR, JDSU, LNKD, SOHU, QIHU, WLT

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: UBNT, XONE, SSYS, SCTY, GOGO


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 35
MAR, INTC, CHRW, SPLS, EXPD, SIAL, MDLZ, MU, SNDK, CMCSA, GILD, CHTR, AAPL, CTXS, SRCL, VOD, DTV, CELG,  FISV,  EQIX, NXPI, AVGO, MAT, VRSK, LMCA, LBTYA, SBAC, QCOM, ATVI, DLTR, KRFT, COST, CSCO, FOXA, GMCR,


Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
ALXN, CTRX, DISH, HSIC, ILMN, MNST, ORLY, PAYX, SYMC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
TXN

Staying Below 30 DMA
GRMN, BIDU, SIRI, YHOO, CTSH, EXPE, LINTA, MYL, NVDA, VRTX, WYNN, FB, REGN, TSLA, BRCM, ADSK, FAST, MSFT, MXIM, VIAB, CHKP, PCAR, ADI, WDC, FFIV, VIP, STX, ISRG, AMAT, KLAC, LLTC, NTAP, XLNX, BBBY, ROST, ALTR, AMGN, DISCA, SBUX, TSCO, INTU, AKAM, EBAY, ESRX, WFM, TRIP, ADBE, AMZN, BIIB, CERN, PCLN, NFLX, CA, GOOG

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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