Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Stocks Pause After Record High...APOL, NSC Gap Up...AAPL, GOOG, CMG Move Higher...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLP, XLU and XLI were the strongest sectors…XLE was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened… as decliners led advancers…1.21 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.53 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY down .84 at 174.57…volume 105.4 million shares
VIX up .09 at 13.42…
TNX down .27 at 24.85…
TLT up .42 at 108.31...
XLF down .17 at 20.74 volume 35.8 million shares
 
AAPL up 5.09 at 524.96…volume 11.2 million shares
FB down .78 at 51.90volume 57.02 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
QQQ – 0.61%, SPY – 0.48%, IWM - 0.33%, DIA – 0.28%.
 
Futures moved lower overnight after markets moved lower in China.  Broad indexes moved lower during the first hour and then worked their way higher to close near the open on Wednesday.  The Euro remains strong, interest rates were down as bonds moved higher again.  The VIX was up slightly.
 
AAPL bounced while FB pulled back in day three of a bull flag pattern that was a test of last Thursday’s horizontal breakout.  FB formed a white spinning top.
 
GOOG and CMG moved to new highs.  NFLX found support and rose after Tuesday’s unusual reversal.  VMW is setting up and earnings’ flag and formed a hammer candle.
 
APOL +5.86,+27.98% following earnings.
 
CAT -5.41, -6.07% following EPS this morning.  AKAM was down in after-hours trading.
 
Resistance Chart Targets:
QQQ = 81.87, 83.17…closed at 82.45
IWM = 110.96, 112.83…closed at 110.76
SPY = 177.85, 180.99…closed at 175.41
 
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville once wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term market posture is SPY up.
Support Levels
ES = 1,726
SPY = 172.76
QQQ = 81.87, 79.76, 78.40
IWM = 107.83
 
Earnings to Watch
Earnings releases continue with a large list of major companies reporting next week.
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – CREE, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: CIEN, RAX, SWI, ADBE,
 
Diagonal Breakout:  AMGN, CTSH,
 
Bull Flag: A, CLF, CNX, CRM, DDD, FAS, FIVE, FSLR, GLD, GME, IWM, SPY, QQQ, LNKD, LVS, NKE, P, QIHU, SCTY, SINA, SOHU, SPLK, SPWR, SSYS, STI, V,
STI, X, XONE, YNDX, YELP, YOKU, BIDU, CELG, FB, MNST, MSFT, PCLN, SNDK, STX, TXN, WDC, WYNN,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:  Z, MU, TSLA, ADSK,
 
Gap Up:   
 
Gap Down: AKAM,  
 
Bear Flag: TPX,
 
At Support: AMAT, CSCO, FFIV, XLNX,
 
Moves
New Highs: CMG, ESI, AAPL, GILD, GOOG, ROST, WFM,
 
Gap Up: GLW, APOL, SWY, BCR, NSC
 
Gap Down: CREE, CAT
 
H&D Breakout: ANR, ATI, GILD, GOOG,
 
Breakout Test:
 
Bounce: ZION,         
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: GRPN, JNPR, SWKS, VECO, NTAP,
 
 
______________________
 
 
21 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GOOG, NFLX, ISRG, ALXN, SIAL, GILD, ROST, FOSL, EQIX, AAPL
 
Lagging NDX stocks included: ALTR, FFIV, TSLA, NTAP,MCHP, AMAT, XLNX, GOLD, AVGO, MXIM, WDC, BRCM, AKAM
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: GLW, ANR, JCP, ESI, AKS, SCSS, ANR,  ZONE, FAZ
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CREE, JNPR, SWKS, CDE, YELP, CRUS, LDK, TSL, COH, SMH, RVBD, CLF, DECK, CIEN
 
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 73
GRMN, FB, WYNN, AVGO, CTSH, VOD, MXIM, ROST, YHOO, ADBE, DLTR, SNDK, WFM, CHTR, BIDU, SBUX, STX, AMAT, CERN, CMCSA, BBBY, MSFT, XRAY, VRSK, AAPL, HSIC, SPLS, AKAM, ATVI, CELG, FISV, FOSL, GILD, INTC, INTU, KLAC, LINTA, ORLY, PAYX, PCAR, PCLN, SIRI, SRCL, SBAC, WDC, LMCA, FOXA, CHKP, DTV, MNST, VIAB, NFLX, ESRX, GOOG, QCOM, ADP, AMGN, AMZN, BIIB, COST, MAT, MDLZ, DISCA, KRFT, CA, ADI, CHRW, EXPD, CTRX, GOLD, SIAL, LBTYA, REGN
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
BRCM, DELL, FAST, FFIV, MCHP, MXIM, MYL, NVDA, QCOM, SYMC, VRTX, ADI
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
ALTR, TXN, TSLA, ADSK, ISRG, XLNX, EBAY, LLTC, MU, EXPE, SHLD, ALXN, NTAP, EQIX, CSCO, CTXS, NUAN, GMCR
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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