Tuesday, June 4, 2013

SPY Hammer Fails to Confirm While Support Holds...Financials, Bonds Weak...TSLA Forms Harami...

One of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLP, XLB and XLU were the strongest sectors…XLF was again the weakest sector.

Breadth weakened decliners led advancers…1.73 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.90 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, mixed
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led

LMCA will replace VMED in the NDX 100 tomorrow Wednesday morning June 5.
NFLX will replace PRGO in the NDX 100 Thursday morning June 6.


SPY down 79 cents at 163.56volume 156.9 million shares
VIX down .01 at 16.27
TNX up .03 at 21.37
TLT down -1.06 cents at 113.72...
XLF down 18 cents at 19.68…volume 62.7 million shares                 

AAPL down -1.41 at 449.31volume 10.4 million shares
FB down 33 cents at 23.52volume 34.7 million shares


Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.44%, SPY -0.48%, QQQ -0.52% and IWM -1.06%.

The opened slightly higher and traded up for the first hour when selling pressure sent prices lower falling just below its 38.2% Fib retracement level for the second straight day.  The low of 162.73 was 7 cents above Monday’s support level before bouncing to close at 163.56.  While Tuesday’s early bounce faded, because support held we will continue to look for a potential bounce move on Wednesday. 

TSLA formed a potential bullish harami in its bull flag pattern. 

XLF, XLI and XLK remain positive.  Three sectors positive, two neutral and four negative.  The current sector structure is neutral even though the four-week plus (intermediate) term trend is still up.

When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.  When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries.  When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.  The current market condition is sideways with a potential support bounce forming.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up with short-term trend down.  Traders should lock in profits when targets are reachedLook for potential entries on a bounce or break of support according to your rules.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


Earnings this Week: CIEN,

EPS Reaction Summary
EPS Gainers –  GES, SPLK, PWRD, HPQ, NTAP, AZO, MDT, CSCO, A, MCP, WCRX, NVDA, PCLN, GMCR, GRPN, TSLA, EA, DVA, WFM, CTSH, DTV, LBTYA, AIG, ADP, CBOE, REGN, FB, BZH, EXPD, GM, MDC, STX, V, YELP, ICE, JRCC, VIAB, CMCSA, DDD, AVP, HLF, CERN, CVX, DHI, TWC, ANGI, AKAM, ALXN, ALTR, BIIB, COG, CLF, CROX, DOW, ESI, FFIV, HOG, LRCX, LVS, MO, PHM, RCL, SIAL, XLNX, BA, BRCM, GLW, HES, DAL, COH, DD, NFLX, ILMN, VECO, LCC, RF, ZION, TRV, LMT, CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, CMG, GOOG, KMB, STI, MSFT, BTU, PEP, UNP, VZ, MAT, AXP, JNJ, INTC, KO, C, APOL

EPS Losers – CPRT, COST, TSL, CRM, GME, SHLD, DISH, XRAY, ATVI, RAX, MNST, Z, LNKD, TPX, ZAGG, CTRX, GRMN, MRK, SWI, AMZN, BIDU, CRUS, DECK, EXPE, HSY, KLAC, MXIM, QCOM, PTEN, ABC, MMM, AMGN, T, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, GE, IBM, ISRG, MCD, MS, PM, UNH, SNDK, EBAY, BAC, USB, GS, LLTC


The Market Forecast Green Line closed below the Upper Zone and is pointed downDefensive posture.

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Setups
H Breakout:  GLD, PWRD, TBT, CSCO, MSFT, MU, WDC,

Diagonal Breakout:  ANGI, ATI, BBRY, FAS, FIVE, FSLR, LVS, NFLX, SCSS, SINA, SOHU, UAL, AAPL, AKAM, BIDU, BRCM, DTV, GOOG, NTAP, ORCL, QCOM, ROST, SBUX, YHOO

Bull Flag:  TSLA, CREE, GMCR, JCP, XLNX, SPY, BAC, C, CNX, DDD, GLW, GRPN, GS, JNPR, NTES, STI, TIF, VECO, XONE, ZION, COST, ESRX, MAT, MYL, NVDA, SIRI, SNDK, WFM, WYNN,


Potential Bullish Divergence: NUAN,

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag: 

At Support:  ALK, ANR, BBRY, CMG, P, SCTY, SPLK, SSYS, SWI, TLT, TPX, UNG, WLT, YELP, Z, ATVI, BBBY, CELG, EBAY, FAST, FB, FFIV, GILD, GRMN, PCLN, SHLD,

Moves
New Highs:  MRK, INTC, AMAT, MNST, STX,

Gap Up:  MNST, TXN,

Gap Down: 

H&D Breakout: 

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  CLF, ADBE, CMCSA,

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:  ADSK,

Support Break:  CRM, LNKD, RAX, RCL, AMGN,

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29 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MNST, SPLS, ADBE, STX, VOD, TXN, ALTR, AVGO, CMCSA, NUAN

Lagging NDX stocks included:  BIIB, ALXN, AKAM, CELG, SHLD, EXPE, GOLD, FFIV, SYMC, WFM

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: CLF, TSLA, FAZ, TSL

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  CRM, SWI, SSYS, CDE, SOHU, HLF, MCP, ICE, YELP, VECO, FAS, URE


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 49
YHOO, MSFT, LIFE, INTC, DTV, SBUX, WFM, WDC, AMAT, NVDA, SIAL, SIRI, STX, CA, ESRX, ORLY, PCAR, XLNX, CERN, AAPL, FOSL, KLAC, LINTA, CHKP, ORCL, ADI, EXPD, LLTC, PCLN, KRFT, MU, NTAP, SPLS, ALTR, BIDU, HSIC, KRFT, SNDK, AVGO, CSCO, FAST, ISRG, AMZN, CTSH, GOLD, DELL, COST, MCHP, NWSA,   

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
ADBE, MNST, TXN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 14
ADP, AKAM, BIIB, BMC, DISCA, DLTR, FFIV, GOOG, MYL, PAYX, SRCL, VRTX, WYNN, XRAY

Staying Below 30 DMA
BRCM, CELG, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, BBBY, CTXS, EBAY, GRMN, REGN, VIAB, LBTYA, ROST, VMED, FISV, MAT, PRGO, MDLZ, CHRW, CMCSA, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, VOD, EQIX, VRSK, ADSK, AMGN, EXPE, SYMC, FB, MXIM, CTRX, NUAN

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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