Monday, April 11, 2011

AA Resports EPS In Line, Revs Below...Moves Lower After the Close...

The SPX formed a spinning top on Monday closing down -3.71 at 1,324.46.   The SPX pulled back from resistance for the second straight day.

SPX black spinning top, above 30 DMA -0.28%
INDU doji, above 30 DMA, +0.01%
COMPQ black candle, above 30 DMA, -0.32%
RUT black candle, closed below horizontal support, -0.84%

Breadth weakened on the NYSE as decliners led advancers 2.27 to 1 and strengthened slightly on the NASDAQ as decliners led advancers 1.91 to 1

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ
Advancers         922                901
Decliners        2,098             1,722

Index              Chg.    Close    Direction      Confirmation
VIX                 -1.28       16.59     Down            No – SPX
SOX               -3.70     435.88     Down            Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included MCP, UAL, ANF

Losing stocks < -2.0% included UCO, SLW, ESI, WLT, PCX, CAM, AKS, CIEN, FCX, F, CDE, NYX, CRUS, SINA, SWN, IAG, SLB, CF, VLO, FWLT, X, JDSU

Positives – VIX, BIDU, PCLN

Negatives – RUT, SPX, COMPQ, Euro, AAPL, NFLX, NYSE breadth weakened, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors

Interest rates TNX +0.00 remained unchanged and bond ETF TLT moved up 8 cents.  Financial stocks XLF remained unchanged. The Euro moved down 49 pips to 1.4433 at 5 pm on Monday.

Five of nine sectors moved lower on Monday with Healthcare XLV +0.57% and Consumer Staples XLP +0.53% the strongest sectors.

Stocks are at a key pivot point with the beginning of earnings season on Monday.  A strong earnings season can lead to a horizontal breakout and weak earnings could lead to a sell off to support.  The after hours reaction to AA earnings was negative.

Look for the pre-market reaction on AA.  JPM reports before the open on Wednesday and GOOG reports after the close on Thursday.  Look for selectivity and rotation to occur with positive earnings attracting big money buying and negative earnings attracting big money selling.

There are a large number of bull flag setups Monday evening.  Many of these same stocks are near support and a break of support could produce a bearish entry signal.

Bull Flag SetupsHUM, CDE, HAS, SINA, UCO, CAT, SLW, IAG, FCX, DHR, NTES, TIE, WLT, CLF, PCX, NETL, SOHU, F, DOW, CMG, DECK, JEC, DLR, FWLT, LVS, CF, TIF, ESI, ZION, NYX, NDAQ, SNDK, GS, SWN, AGU, POT, SLB, URE, UNP, SWK, ATI, VLO, ATW, ARUN
SPX
Resistance: 1,330, 1,344
Support: 1,321, 1,311, 1,300

The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -4.26 large black candle
AMZN -0.67spinning top
BIDU +3.80 black spinning top breakout
GOOG -0.79hammer
NFLX -6.70black spinning top
QCOM -0.23 black spinning top

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include BIIB, BIDU, CTXS, MAT, URBN, SYMC, INFY, PCLN, PAYX, ISRG, LRCX and ROST.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include EXPE, JOYG, MU, TEVA, NFLX, FLEX, AKAM, MRVL, FSLR, BRCM, NVDA and AAPL.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HUM, GMCR, CDE, HLF, HAS, SINA, UCO, CAT, CSTR, WDC, IAG, SLW, DHR, FCX, NTES, MCP, A, CLF, DE, PCX, WLT, ACN, F, NETL, SOHU, TSL, CMG, DOW, ANF, DECK, DLR, FWLT, JEC, CF, CRM, LVS, TIF, V, ESI, CHL, FAS, NDAQ, NYX, ZION, SNDK, CIEN, SMH, GS, STI, TBT, IL, VMW
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
AGU, AKS, POT, SLB, SWN, VECO
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATI, SWK, UNP, URE, VLO, ATW, MOS, ARUN, IPI, TLT, UNG, X, FAZ, AMD, ICE, CAM, RVBD, JNPR, BAC, GLW, JDSU, CRUS, SWKS, GES, MHS, LDK, NVDA, UAL

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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