Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Bull Flag Bounce?...

DJIA                            11,045.27 +53.28 +0.48%
SP500                           1,191.36 +7.65 +0.65%
COMPQ                        2,471.73 +0.26 +0.01%
Russell 2000                  722.39   +1.12 -2.38%

Exchange                   NYSE              NASD
Advancing                  1,821              1,433
Declining                    1,230              1,298

Oil         $83.22         +0.78
Gold    $1,171.30      +9.60
SOX      388.63         +1.85
VIX          21.08         -1.73

Index  Direction       Confirmation
VIX      Down           Yes – SPX
SOX    Up                 Yes – COMPQ

Key Resistance Levels
1,200 = Jul 2008 support
1,216 = Fib extension
Key Support Levels
1,178 = Fib extension
1,155 = 1,119 BO chart target – Dec 23
 
The SPX found support at 1,181 (near its 30 DMA) for the second day in a row and formed a potential bullish harami. The rally had some breadth to it as 352 stocks advanced while 144 declined in the SPX on Wednesday.

Many stocks are in bull flag patterns and formed either a bullish harami, hammer or inside day today.  Look for a potential bull flag bounce on Thursday.
Look at these Charts
(click image to enlarge)

(click image to enlarge)

After the close several stocks beat estimates led by BIDU which soared 89.13.
After Hours EPS
BIDU +89.13, +14.34% reports $2.10 EPS vs $1.50 estimate
AKAM +2.97, +8.95% reports 31 cents ex-items vs 31 cents estimate
CLF +1.44, +2.05% reports 69 cents vs 53 cents estimate
FSLR +8.37, +6.53% reports $2.00 vs $1.63 estimate
ILMN +3.86, +10.26% reports 21 cents vs 19 cents

Key Earnings to Watch:
Monday – CNI, HUM, JEC, KSU, EL, LXK, MHP, NOV, ODP, RSH,TSM, TXN,
Tuesday – MMM, ADP, AFL, DD, F, JBLU, LIFE, MHS, NEM, NSC, NUS, PNRA, LCC, SWK, UAUA, X
Wednesday – AKAM, ATI, APA, BIDU, BKC, CME, CERN, CLF, COP, DOW, ESRX, DAVE, FSLR, GMCR, HES, ILMN, K, LOGI, ORLY, OII, POT, RCL, HOT, VAR, VRSN, V, WLT, WLP, XLNX
Thursday – AET, AEM, AGN, AMX, BDX, BMY, CAM, CELG, CVX, XRAY, DLB, EXPE, XOM, JRCC, KLAC, MXIM, WFR, MET, PG, SPG, SWN, VPRT
Friday – AVP, DISCA

Guidance:
Wednesday downward momentum stopped and upward momentum increased forming an inside day, a hammer or potential bullish harami on many charts inside a bull flag pattern. Be prepared to trade a support bounce on up trending stocks making higher highs and pulling back to higher lows.

If the 1,178 support breaks, expect price to drop to the next support level at 1,155.

Continue to trade with the trend. Be mentally flexible and be willing to trade when your entry and exit signals appear.

The intermediate term chart target is still 1,255 in approximately nine weeks after the 1,150 breakout on March 16.

The VIX fell -1.73 and did confirm the move up on Wednesday.

The short term trend is neutral.
The four-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch trade with the trend and follow your rules.

Continue to adjust stops according to your rules.

AAPL -0.44
QCOM +0.90
GOOG +0.13
BIDU +1.27
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: LIFE, SYMC, QCOM, CELG, NTAP, ILMN, SRCL, CMCSA, LOGI, BRCM, ALTR, WCRX, XLNX, PDCO, FLIR, CERN, STLD, ORLY, LRCX, MXIM, XRAY, MCHP, EBAY, AMAT, NIHD, ADSK, MRVL, SIAL, GILD, FISV, ISRG, JOYG, HSIC,SHLD, AMGN, EXPD, FAST, RIMM, CHRW, HBHT, CTSX, HOLX, WYNN,ADBE, GRMN, LLTC, CA, MSFT, BIDU, NVDA and CSCO.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
NFLX, WHR, UNP, CAT, V, URE, DHR, JEC, USD, SNDK, FLS, AMD, ZION, MCD, GME, TSL, BYI, SYNA, ATW, SWK, ACN, HLF, ICE, PCLN, PCP, SPG, DECK, GES, GR, BA, UNG
Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
CAM, CHL, HANS, SWN, CREE, DOW, UAUA, WFC
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ATI, BKC, FAZ, MA, MYGN
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMX, FAS, UYG, DE, BUCY, WLT, BAC, CLF, MHS, WCG, USO, ESI, GMCR, GS, FCX, X, WMT, PWRD, AGU, IPI, POT, MOS

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

1 comment:

Jackson said...

Dave - that is a f-a-n-tastic summary tonight. Just loaded with great insights and useable information, about macro market, day's activity, and specific stocks. Thanks for what you do Amigo!