SPY Pulls Back from High Stays Above Support...Healthcare Leads SPX, NDX Lower...VIX Jumps...Oil Falls...

All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday …XLU, XLF and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures fell .77 to close at 46.80.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,085 to 884 on the NYSE and led 1,680 to 884 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

SPY down 1.12 at 217.85 on 71.7 million shares, 19% above average volume

VIX up 1.07 at 13.45

TLT down .33 at 139.70…on 6.0 million shares, 6% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM -0.81%, QQQ -0.65%, SPY -0.51%, DIA -0.35%,

IWM pulled back from Tuesday’s higher high making day one of a potential bull flag pattern.  SPY, QQQ and DIA sold off to their short-term support of their current 14-day sideways channel on Wednesday.  At Wednesday’s close SPY is down just 0.80% from Tuesday’s new intra-day high.  Gold fell $14, its largest one-day drop since Aug 5.

SPX big losers included materials stocks NEM, FCX, AA, CF, MOS, FMC, ALB, OI and NUE, and healthcare stocks ENDP, MYL, MNK, VRTX, AGN, PRGO, ALXN, REGN, PKN, CELG and BIIB on Wednesday.

While Wednesday’s action is correctly viewed as price fluctuation and not trend change, one should prepare to become defensive if today’s pullback continues and breaks support.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  AAL, MPC, CBL, URBN, WRK, PCAR, CHTR, LB, SBAC, M, KSS, CERN, GS, ROST, ETFC, TMUS, CTRP, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, KMI, JD, MAR, MU, HRL, INTC, WMB, JCP, TWTR,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: ZION, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, PAYX, WFC, BX, HLT, JPM, CHK, KHC, ADBE, SPY, IWM, FAS, XLF, NVDA, TSN, MAT, HPE, NFLX, STX, CBG, AVGO, URI, WDC, QQQ, GPRO, JWN, RL, CAT,

Horizontal Breakout include: VLO, CCL, TIF, PAYX, BAC,

New Highs include: AMBA, MS, NTAP, EA, XLNX, SYMC, PCAR, STT, TIF, ADSK, AVGO, SWKS, AMAT, ULTA, BURL,

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down in the upper zone at 85, bullish, prepare to become defensive.

16 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Wednesday.

64 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

SBUX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

CELG, CTSH, INTU, ISRG, LBTYA, LMCA, REGN, VRTX,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Small Cap IWM Leads Bounce as SPY Finishes Just Short of All-time High...Oil Finds Buyers Forms Spinning Top...

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday …XLB, XLE and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .18 to close at 47.57.  Buyers stepped up on Tuesday after Monday’s sell off in oil.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,996 to 965 on the NYSE and led 1,629 to 915 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6

SPY up .44 at 218.97 on 53.3 million shares, 12% below average volume

VIX up .11 at 12.38

TLT up .15 at 140.03…on 6.8 million shares, 2% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.70%, SPY +0.20%, QQQ +0.18%, DIA +0.10%,

SPY bounced on Tuesday but ran into resistance at the Aug 15 intra-day high before closing at its second highest close at 218.97.  This makes day 13 in its current sideways range of just 2.48.  Momentum continues to be slow in the broad market as individual stocks continue to dominate since July 11.

IWM closed higher while SPY, QQQ and DIA closed just below recent highs on Tuesday. 

BBY +6.43, +19.60% exceeded estimates and led the SPX on Tuesday.

Big movers on Tuesday included energy stocks CHK, MRO, RRC, SWN, WMB, APC, ENDP, MUR, DVN and MPC. 

Tuesday’s other movers included CF, DLPH, ENDP, MOS, LEN, DHI, PHM, SIG, AMAT, RCL, SPLS, CSRA, MON, URI, PVH, AMG, EMR, MNK, ULTA, CCL, BBBY, COH, FLR and HAS.

Losers were led by SJM -12.60, -8.07%, after earnings included a 7% revenue decline. Other losers included MYL, KLAC, DLR, KR, LMT NOC, CAG, WFM, CPB, PGR, PCG LNT and LLL.

There are still a large number of bull flags in the broad market, look at your stock list for potential setups for bull flag price patterns.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  XLV, CBL, CHTR, JCP, SBAC, BXP, XLF, TMUS, TWTR, CTRP, M, KSS, ETFC, CERN, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, IBM, URBN, WRK, MPC, AAL, DISCA, KMI, JD,

Bull Flag Bounces include: NVDA, AMBA, WMB, VLO, CHK, QQQ, GPRO, MSFT, GRMN, JWN, RL, CAT, ADBE

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SPY, FAS, NVDA, ZION, TSN, INTC, PAYX, WDC, MAT, C, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, NFLX, MRK, JPM, STX, KHC, CELG, BIIB, CBG,

Horizontal Breakout include: IWM, CCL, AVGO, URI, AMBA, ALXN, TIF, PAYX, WDC, BAC,

New Highs include: NTAP, NVDA, XLNX, AVGO, MS, SYMC, SWKS, PCAR, AMAT, JD, ADSK, STT, TIF, EA, ULTA, BURL, MAR, MU, LB, HRL, GS, ROST, 

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 89, bullish.

67 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday.

71 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

AKAM, CA, CTSH, INTU,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

MYL,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Healthcare Stocks Make Gains as Oil Stocks Drop as Oil Falls...VIX Rises...

Three of nine sectors moved higher and two were unchanged on Monday …XLU, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures dropped 1.73 to close at 47.39.  CL oil futures formed a bearish engulfing pattern suggesting a short-term pullback.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,476 to 1,460 on the NYSE and led 1,386 to 1,156 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1

SPY down .01 at 218.53 on 61.3 million shares, 0% above average volume

VIX up .93 at 12.27

TLT up 1.17 at 139.88…on 5.5 million shares, 16% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.23%, QQQ +0.08%, SPY -0.00%, DIA -0.11%,

Following a 16-day sideways range in July, SPY is finished its 12th day in a new sideways range of just 2.48.  Momentum has slowed down in the broad market as individual stocks continue to dominate since July 11. 

Big movers on Monday included healthcare stocks INCY, BMRN, REGN, ALXN, VRTX, CELG, HUM, ILMN and DVA. 

Monday’s other movers CF, WFM, HRL, MAT, VMC, CMG, CBG, SBUX, CBS, NAVI, HBAN, MLM, ALB, ETR and PSA.

Losers were led by oil stocks MRO, HAL, RIG, OKE, MUR, NFX, HP, DO, RRC, PXD, TSO, MPC, FTI, SWN, HES, BHI, KMI, COP, NOV, SLB and NBL.

IWM and QQQ moved higher while SPY and DIA continued to grind sideways. 

There are still a large number of bull flags in the broad market, look at your stock list for potential setups for bull flag price patterns.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  AMBA, C, QQQ, GPRO, XLV, CBL, CHTR, JCP, SBAC, BXP, MSFT, XLF, TMUS, TWTR, CTRP, M, KSS, SBAC, ETFC, CERN, COST, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, IBM, VLO, CHK, URBN, WRK, MPC, WMB, AAL, DISCA, GRMN, KMI, JWN, RL, CAT, JD, ADBE,

Bull Flag Bounces include: NVDA, MAT, CBG, ORLY, ALXN, CELG,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: ZION, TSN, ALXN, AVGO, INTC, TIF, PAYX, WDC, MAT, SPY, IWM, CCL, BAC, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, NFLX, MRK, URI, JPM, STX, FAS, KHC, KMI, CELG, BIIB,

Horizontal Breakout include:

New Highs include: NTAP, LB, XLNX, AVGO, HRL, MS, SYMC, GS, SWKS, PCAR, AMAT, ROST, MU, JD, ADSK, STT, TIF, EA, ULTA, BURL, MAR,

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 89, bullish.

48 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three were unchanged on Monday.

68 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

BMRN, CSCO, REGN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Oil Rises Day 7...SPY Range Day 11...DE, FL, AMAT, HRL, GPS, ROST Move Higher...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday …XLB, XLK and XLY were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .16 to close at 49.12 rising for the seventh straight day nearing its June 9 high of 51.67.

For the week ended August 19,

XLE +2.49%, XLB +1.18%, XLI +0.79%, XLF +0.63%,

SPY +0.04%,

Lagging sectors XLK -0.19%, XLP -0.31%, XLV -0.56%, XLY -0.61%, XLU -1.24%,

XLE and XLI continued to rise this week.

All nine sectors continued to be YTD positive after all nine sectors had turned YTD positive for the first time two week ago.

YTD 160

Leading Sectors: XLE +16.73%, XLU +16.15%, XLB +12.83%, XLI +11.34%, XLK +9.78%, XLP +8.77%,

SPY +7.20%,

Lagging Sectors: XLY +4.27%, XLV +3.23%, XLF +0.76%,

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,742 to 1,188 on the NYSE and led 1,322 to 1,221 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

SPY down .32 at 218.54 on 75.4 million shares, 22% above average volume

VIX down .09 at 11.34

TLT down .73 at 138.71…on 5.5 million shares, 18% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM 0.00%, QQQ -0.03%, SPY -0.15%, DIA -0.19%,

Following a 16-day range in July, SPY is finished its eleventh day in a new range of just 2.48.  Momentum has slowed down in the broad market as individual stocks continue to dominate since July 11. Big movers on Friday included DE, FL, AMAT, HRL, GPS and ROST.

There are still a large number of bull flags in the broad market, look at your stock list for potential setups for bull flag price patterns.

Earning’s Announcements:

Positive Reactions: DE, FL, AMAT, HRL, GPS, ROST  

DE +10.38, +13.49%

FL +6.81, +11.04%

AMAT +1.96, +7.08%

HRL +1.62, +4.37%

GPS +1.01, +3.90%

ROST +2.18, +3.47%

Negative Reactions: EL,

EL -3.37, -3.54%

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  AMBA, NVDA, GPRO, TWTR, JCP, MAT, C, QQQ, CHTR, CTRP, M, KSS, SBAC, MSFT, XLF, TMUS, ETFC, XLV, CERN, CBG, COST, ORLY, ALXN, CELG, BXP, KMX, CBL, AAPL, PCLN, IBM,

Bull Flag Bounces include: CAT, JWN, RL, BIIB,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: TIF, SPY, IWM, AVGO, CCL, AAL, BAC, ZION, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, DISCA, NFLX, MRK, URI, JPM, STX, INTC, GRMN, FAS, KHC, KMI, TSN,

Horizontal Breakout include: BURL, MAR, AMAT, ROST,

New Highs include: AMAT, ROST, NTAP, LB, MS, SYMC, GS, MU, JD, ADSK, STT, VLO, CHK, URBN, TIF, EA, PCAR, WRK, MPC, XLNX, ULTA, WMB, BURL MAR,

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Short-term Movers for the week:

SPX gainers:  URBN, CHK, MRO, DE, FL, APA, FTI, GPS, HAL, DVN, OKE, LYB, CTAS, RIG, BHI, MI, NOV, WMB, LB, SYMC, PXD, RF,, PX, NAVI, MUR, XYL, TEL, MS, COP, UA, EQT, PRGO, NKE, HRL, RRC, PWR, RHI, UNP, +4, 46

SPX losers:  VRSN, ADS, SPLS, TGT, DVA, BBY, T, CRM, AAP, LOW, TJX, UHS, LMT, MCD, CBG, CTL, -4, 14

NDX gainers:  NTAP, AMAT, MU, SWKS, BIDU, EA, SYMC, WDC, JD, AAL, LRCX, PCAR, ADSK, ROST, +4, 11

NDX losers:  INCY, ENDP, REGN, MAT, VRTX, -4, 3,

YTD: 160

SPX Leaders:  NEM, OKE, SWN, FCX, URBN, RRC, SE, EW, KMI, PXD (353, +1 > 10p 248, +1)

SPX Losers:  CF, FSLR, PRGO, RCL, TSO, HRB, ADS, DAL, GCI, SIG

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, ULTA, LLTC, CHTR, NTAP, YHOO, TXN, PCAR, ISRG,  (65, +1, >10p 38, +3)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, NCLH, ALXN, SRCL, TRIP, WDC, LVTYA, INCY, JD,

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, MRK, MMM, WMT, JNJ, IBM, CVX, UTX, VZ (23, -1, >10p 12)

DJI Losers:  DIS, GS, BA, AXP, NKE, MCD, JPM

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 91, bullish.

53 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Friday.

65 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

ISRG, PAYX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

CMCSA, EXPE, MNST, PYPL, REGN, SBAC

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

IWM, SPY Close Above Hammer in Bull Flag Pattern, Energy Gains as Oil Rallies Day 6, NTAP Jumps 17%

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday …XLE, XLU and XLB were the strongest sectors while XLF was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures jumped 2.02 to close at 48.96. rising for the sixth straight day nearing its June 9 high of 51.67.

Breadth strengthened as decliners led 2,083 to 869 on the NYSE and led 1,728 to 824 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

SPY up .49 at 218.86 on 52.9 million shares, 16% below average volume

VIX down .76 at 11.43

TLT up .22 at 139.44…on 3.8 million shares, 44% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.74%, SPY +0.22%, DIA +0.13%, QQQ +0.03%,

SPY and IWM closed above Wednesday’s hammer on Thursday for a potential bull flag entry signal.    

Take a look at your stock list to see if triggered an entry signal in a bull flag price pattern.

NTAP +5.03, +17.44% gapped up on a positive earnings reaction.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include:  AMBA, CAT, MAT, C, QQQ, CHTR, CTRP, M, KSS, JWN, RL, AMAT, SBAC, MSFT, XLF, BIIB, TMUS, ETFC, XLV, CERN, CBG, ROST, COST, ORLY, ALXN, CELG, BXP, KMX, NVDA, CBL, GPRO, AAPL, JCP

Bull Flag Bounces include: SPY, IWM, XLNX, BURL, AVGO, ULTA, AMAT, TSN, IBM, ROST, WMB, TIF

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: BURL, CCL, AAL, MAR, BAC, ZION, WFC, BX, HLT, HPE, DISCA, NFLX, MRK, URI, JPM, STX, INTC, GRMN, FAS, KHC,

Horizontal Breakout include: LB, KMI, WMB, PCLN, EA, PCAR, WRK, MPC, XLNX, ULTA

New Highs include: NTAP, LB, MS, SYMC, GS, MU, JD, ADSK, STT, VLO, CHK, URBN, TIF

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 93, bullish.

60 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

69 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

MNST,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

CSCO, SIRI,

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral