Four of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLE,
XLU and XLB were the strongest
sectors…while XLY was the weakest
sector.
Breadth weakened
as
advancers led decliners…1.10 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.07 to
1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened, mixed
Thursday – weakened
slightly, advancers led
Wednesday – Closed
Christmas
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – strengthened,
advancers led
SPY down -.01 at 183.84 volume 61.8 million shares
VIX up .13 at 12.46…
TNX up .16 at 30.06…highest close since June 2011
TLT down .29 at 101.81...
XLF down -.01 at 21.79 volume
11.9 million shares
AAPL down -3.81 at 560.09 volume 8.1 million shares…bull
flag pattern
FB down -2.29 at 55.44…volume 60.4 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
DIA +0.01%,
SPY -0.01%, IWM -0.06%, QQQ -0.25%.
The DIA,
SPY and IWM were closed near unchanged.
Many Dow 30 stocks closed at new highs.
The big
news was a mini-crash in TWTR which occurred just as many people became
convinced it was free money and one should just jump in, kind of like Santa and
a chimney. Other social media stocks
also caught the down draft including FB, P, YELP, ZNGA, Z, GRPN and LNKD. There were some social media bright spots including
SINA +4.32%, ANGI +3.50% and NTES +2.99%.
Many
stocks again closed near record highs including…ATI, BX, FAS, GLW, JNPR,
NTES, SPY, DIA, TPX, V, VRSN, X, XONE, CMCSA, CTSH, GOOG, MNST, WYNN, AXP, CAT,
CVX, DD, KO, MMM, XOM, DIA and SPY.
The trend continues
higher for the overall market with basic materials, industrial,
energy, technology and financial sectors leading the way. Trade with the trend, move your protective
stops. Continue to follow
your rules.
The economic outlook continues to strengthen heading into 2014. While the stock market does not go straight
up and instead moves in a zig zag manner of higher highs and pull backs to
higher lows, currently the weight of the technical evidence suggests
trend continuation as 2013 comes to a close.
Take this
time to evaluate your 2013 trading performance and identify specific
improvements that you can make for 2014.
Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over
again expecting different results.”
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 183.37, 185.02…
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74…
IWM = 117.15, 119.00…
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – LEN, BBRY, RHT, WAG,
ORCL, AVGO, MFRM, SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS,
BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY,
PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML,
THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA,
SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT,
FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN,
APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE,
KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC,
JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY,
CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP,
AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW,
ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS,
VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP,
EW, MRK, RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL,
ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY,
CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS,
UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: C,
IBM, JCP, NKE, RAX, SCTY, SSYS, SWI, TBT, TIF, ZION, BIDU, DTV, NTAP, ROST,
SNDK, TXN, WDC,
Diagonal Breakout: SWKS,
VECO, GILD, MU, PCLN,
Bull Flag: A, ANGI, BAC, BBRY, CIEN, CSIQ, GRPN, GS, LVS,
RCL, SCSS, SFUN, SOHU, STI, TSL, TWTR, UNG, YELP, YNDX, Z, AAPL, AKAM, AMZN, FB,
TSCO, GMCR, NFLX, STX, TSLA, YHOO
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: F, GLD, GOGO, KKD, MSFT,
At Support: FIVE,
GME, TLT,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: ATI, BX, FAS, GLW, JNPR, NTES, SPY, DIA, TPX,
V, VRSN, X, XONE, CMCSA, CTSH, GOOG, MNST, WYNN, AXP, CAT, CVX, DD, KO, MMM, XOM
Gap Up: MCP,
Gap Down:
H Breakout: CLF, JNPR, SINA, WLT, XONE,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test: CMG, CRM, DDD, MFRM,
Bounce: ANR,
CNX, BIDU, GMCR,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag: ALK, TRIP,
Support Break:
______________________
45 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Friday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BIDU, SIAL, ILMN,
MAT, ISRG, VIP, GRMN, EXPD, LMCA, CHRW
Lagging NDX stocks included: FB, TSLA, NFLX,
TRIP, SIRI, WFM, PCLN, AMZN, BIIB, ATVI
Leading stocks > +2% on
Friday included: MCP, WLT, ANR, CLF, SINA, XONE, ANGI, BBRY, NTES, X
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: TWTR, AAL, GOGO, MFRM, P, UAL, YELP,
UNG, Z, GME, GRPN, FIVE, SPLK, SCSS
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 80
CTSH,
AAPL, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, ILMN, LLTC, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX,
ALXN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, DISH, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV,
STX, BIDU, BRCM, WYNN, FB, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, TSLA, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, EBAY,
VIAB, VRSK, CA, CHKP, FFIV, LINTA, PCAR, VOD, TSCO, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX, ADP,
ATVI, CTXS, GILD, PAYX, ADI, CTRX, DISCA, KRFT, FOXA, NXP, AMAT, EXPD, KLAC,
MAT, NVDA, SPLS, TXN, VIP, ALTR, BBBY,
CSCO, HSIC, SYMC, SBAC, CHTR, AMGN, FAST
Moving Above 30 DMA =
3
CHRW, ISRG, NTAP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
DLTR, MYL, PCLN, WFM
Staying Below 30 DMA
GRMN, MSFT, CERN, SRCL, TRIP, COST, SBUX, LMCA, SIRI, REGN, ROST, GOLD, MXIM
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Up
