SPX Opens Higher, Pulls Back after Fed Comments, Stocks Close Mixed...Technology, Utilities, Basic Materials Lead Sectors...

© 2023

 

The SPX -2.99 opened higher, trended up, reversed lower after Fed speak from Bostic and Daly and closed lower.

We encourage investors to read the Fed comments and determine if they gave new policy insights or just shared previously existing opinions. 

The SPY and DIA tested Friday’s breakout of its 13-day tight trading range and closed just above the trading range. 

VIX moved higher.

Jerome Powell participates in a discussion Tuesday at 9 am ET, at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Stockholm, Sweden.

/CL, TLT and GLD closed higher, while DXY and TNX moved lower.

SPY down .22 at 387.86, on 73.9 million shares, below average volume, down on lower volume.

VIX up .84 at 21.97

QQQ up 1.74 at 270.54

CRM, INTC, GS, MSFT led the DJIA, 15 advancers, -15

NCLH, SWN, RCL, EQT led the SPX, 256 advancers

LCID, TSLA, NVDA, AMD led the NDX, 59 advancers

The two-year trend term is up a little.  The one-year trend down.

Up:  QQQ, IWM,

Down:  SPY, DIA,

Five of eleven sectors were higher on Monday, led by XLK, XLU and XLB.

Advancers weakened on Monday as advancers led 1,903 to 1,193 on the NYSE and led 2,780 to 1,879 on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 25.7 and is short-term bullish.  SPY opened higher and closed slightly lower.

Uptrend sectors:   XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLF, XLE, XLU, XLRE, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC,

Down trend sectors:  XLY,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

59 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday

48 NDX stock are above their 30 DMA:   KHC, ROST, AZN, AVGO, ATVI, EXC, OKTA, ALGN, BKNG, META, SGEN, CMCSA, JD, PDD, PYPL, SBUX, EBAY, IDXX, MU, NFLX, WBD, BKR, CHTR, AEP, AMAT, ASML, CSCO, CSX, CTSH, FANG, FISV, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MDLZ, ODFL, TMUS, TXN, VRSK, XEL, ADBE, ADI, ANSS, CDNS, ILMN, INTU, MCHP, MELI,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8

ADBE, ADI, ANSS, CDNS, ILMN, INTU, MCHP, MELI,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 9

AMGN, COST, DLTR, DXCM, GILD, ISRG, MNST, ORLY, PCAR,

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SPX, SPY, DIA, IWM Close Higher and Breakout of 13-day Channel after Strong Jobs Report...Basic Materials, Technology, Real Estate Lead All Sectors Hihger...

© 2023

  

The SPX +86.98 opened higher after the December Jobs Report higher jobs and lower than expected wage increases and continued higher after Factory Orders and ISM Services Index reports. 

The SPY, DIA and IWM broke out of its 13-day tight trading range and closed above the high of the low day. 

VIX moved lower.

Fed speak from Bostic, Cook and Barkin were not able to derail Friday’s rally.

Check out the short five paragraph comment Thursday on Fed communications impact on intraday fluctuations if you have not yet read it

 

GLD, TLT and /CL closed higher, while DXY and TNX moved lower.

SPY up 8.70 at 388.08, on 104.1 million shares, above average volume, up on higher volume.

VIX down 1.33 at 21.13

QQQ up 7.22 at 268.80

INTC, WBA, DOW, BA led the DJIA, 30 advancers, +23

LW, WDC, VLO, MPC led the SPX, 476 advancers

COST, ODFL, IDXX, LRCX led the NDX, 94 advancers

The two-year trend term is up a little.  The one-year trend down.

Up:  QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA,

Down:

All eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by XLB, XLK and XLRE.

Advancers strengthened on Friday as advancers led 2,709 to 436 on the NYSE and led 3,424 to 1,274 on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 22.7 and is short-term bullish.  SPY opened lower and closed lower.

Uptrend sectors:   XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLF, XLE, XLU, XLRE, XLK,

Neutral sectors:  XLC,

Down trend sectors:  XLY,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up a little

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

94 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday

49 NDX stock are above their 30 DMA:   KHC, ROST, AZN, AVGO, ATVI, EXC, OKTA, ALGN, BKNG, META, SGEN, CMCSA, JD, PDD, PYPL, SBUX, EBAY, IDXX, ISRG, MU, NFLX, WBD, BKR, CHTR, AEP, AMAT, AMGN, ASML, COST, CSCO, CSX, CTSH, DLTR, DXCM, FANG, FISV, GILD, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MDLZ, MNST, ODFL, ORLY, PCAR, TMUS, TXN, VRSK, XEL,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 25

AEP, AMAT, AMGN, ASML, COST, CSCO, CSX, CTSH, DLTR, DXCM, FANG, FISV, GILD, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MDLZ, MNST, ODFL, ORLY, PCAR, TMUS, TXN, VRSK, XEL,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

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SPX Moves Lower in its 13-day Channel after ADP Report and George, Bullard Comments...Oil Rises...Energy, Communication Services Lead Sectors...

© 2023

 

The SPX -44.87 opened lower after the ADP employment report and continued lower after Fed comments from George and Bullard.  The SPX remained like SPY, DIA and IWM in a 13-day trading range.

VIX moved higher.

Bullard indicated in a speech to the St. Louis CFA Society that the policy rate is not yet sufficiently restrictive and discussed

GDP growth has improved,

Labor market performance remains strong,

Inflation is too high but has declined recently,

Inflation expectations are relatively low,

2023 Disinflation prospects.

 

In my view, markets continue to temporarily overreact on an intraday basis to each speech, presentation, forum, panel, interview, essay, and other interaction in which Fed members participate.

There are nineteen members of the Fed including 12 regional bank presidents and seven members of the board of governors.  Last year James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed President, participated in at least 36 events.  If nineteen Fed members did the same there would be SIX HUNDRED EIGHTY-FOUR public interactions in a year that has 251 business days.  Each of those are observed by dozens or more news outlets, each with partial comments multiple times per day.

Are each of these interactions beyond the eight annual FOMC announcements and subsequent press conference, sharing new relevant policy information that adds to what the market knows?  Or are they redundant expressions of questionable value mixed with personal opinions?

James Bullard’s comments today included the observation: “Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee."

These interactions may represent opinion overload that ultimately reduces the Fed’s effectiveness in communicating policy and increases the potential for confusion and chaos in the financial markets, the media and the minds of public investors.

FWIW, Dave.

DXY, /CL, TLT and TNX closed higher, while GLD moved lower.

SPY down 4.38 at 379.38, on 76.9 million shares, below average volume, down on lower volume.

VIX up .45 at 22.46

QQQ down 4.16 at 261.58

CVX, MRK, VZ, DOW led the DJIA, 7 advancers, -17

LW, WDC, VLO, MPC led the SPX, 122 advancers

PDD, WBD, BKR, TMUS led the NDX, 24 advancers

The two-year trend term is up a little.  The one-year trend down.

Up:

Down:  DIA, IWM, SPY, QQQ,

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday, led by XLE, XLC and XLF.

Advancers weakened on Thursday as decliners led 1,825 to 1,292 on the NYSE and led 2,783 to 1,811 on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 20.1 and is short-term bullish.  SPY opened lower and closed lower.

Uptrend sectors:   XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLF, XLE, XLU,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE, XLK, XLC,

Down trend sectors:  XLY,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Sideways

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down a little

24 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday

24 NDX stock are above their 30 DMA:   KHC, ROST, AZN, AVGO, ATVI, EXC, OKTA, ALGN, BKNG, META, SGEN, CMCSA, JD, PDD, PYPL, SBUX, EBAY, IDXX, ISRG, MU, NFLX, WBD, BKR, CHTR,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

BKR, CHTR,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

ADBE, FISV, MNST, VRSK, WDAY, XEL,

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SPX Closes Higher after ISM Report and FOMC Minutes...Real Estate, Communication Services, Basic Materials Lead Sectors...

© 2023

The SPX +28.83 opened higher and pulled back after both the ISM Manufacturing index at 10 am ET, and the FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET, but rallied after both pullbacks to close higher for the day.  The SPX remains like the index ETFs in a 12-day trading range.

VIX moved lower.

GLD and TLT closed higher, while DXY, /CL and TNX moved lower.

SPY up 2.94 at 383.76, on 85.9 million shares, average volume, up on higher volume.

VIX down .89 at 22.01

QQQ up 1.26 at 265.74

BA, CRM, INTC, DIS led the DJIA, 24 advancers, +6

BBWI, CCL, PARA, RCL led the SPX, 420 advancers

JD, WBD, PDD, MU led the NDX, 79 advancers

The two-year trend term is up a little.  The one-year trend down.

Up:   IWM, SPY, QQQ, DIA,

Down:

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday, led by XLRE, XLC and XLB.

Advancers strengthened on Wednesday as advancers led 2,527 to 609 on the NYSE and led 3,345 to 1,274 on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line turned up at 18.6 and is short-term bullish.  SPY opened higher, reversed and closed higher.

Uptrend sectors:   XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLF, XLE, XLU,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE, XLK, XLC,

Down trend sectors:  XLY,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up a little

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday

28 NDX stock are above their 30 DMA:   KHC, ROST, AZN, XEL, AVGO, ATVI, EXC, OKTA, WDAY, ALGN, ADBE, BKNG, META, SGEN, CMCSA, FISV, JD, PDD, PYPL, SBUX, EBAY, IDXX, ISRG, MNST, MU, NFLX, VRSK, WBD,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8

EBAY, IDXX, ISRG, MNST, MU, NFLX, VRSK, WBD,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

DXCM, ORLY, 

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SPX Higher Open, Lower Close in 10 Day Narrow Trading Range...Communication Services, Real Estate, Financial Lead Sectors...

© 2023

 

The SPX -15.36 opened higher and reversed, after the PMI Manufacturing index was released at 9:45 am ET, and moved back into the trading range of the past 10 days.

QQQ, DIA, SPY and IWM closed lower. 

VIX moved higher.

TSLA -12.24% after a 3-day counter trend bounce TSLA was the largest percentage decliner in the SPX.

DXY, GLD and TLT closed higher, while /CL and TNX moved lower.

SPY down 1.61 at 380.82, on 74.8 million shares, below average volume, down on higher volume.

VIX up 1.23 at 22.90

QQQ down 1.80 at 264.48

BA, DIS, MMM, VZ led the DJIA, 18 advancers, +7

NEM, MHK, GCI, WYNN led the SPX, 265 advancers

PYPL, META, PDD, JD led the NDX, 39 advancers

The two-year trend term is up a little.  The one-year trend down.

Up:

Down:  DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ,

Four of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday, and one was unchanged, led by XLC, XLRE and XLF.

Advancers strengthened on Tuesday as advancers led 1,886 to 1,252 on the NYSE and led 2,541 to 2,136  on the NASDAQ.

The SPY MFC green line turned down at 17.3 and is short-term bearish.  SPY opened higher, reversed and closed lower.

Uptrend sectors:   XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLF, XLE, XLU,

Neutral sectors:  XLRE, XLK, XLC,

Down trend sectors:  XLY,

The 6-month intermediate trend is sideways.  The ten-day trend is down a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: up a little

39 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday

22 NDX stock are above their 30 DMA:   KHC, ROST, AZN, XEL, AVGO, ATVI, EXC, OKTA, WDAY, ALGN, ORLY, ADBE, BKNG, META, SGEN, CMCSA, DXCM, FISV, JD, PDD, PYPL, SBUX,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7

CMCSA, DXCM, FISV, JD, PDD, PYPL, SBUX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

BKR, MNST,

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