Wednesday, March 18, 2015

FOMC Announcement Triggers Broad Rally...IWM New All-time High Close...XLE Leads Sectors as Oil Rises...

All nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLE, XLU and XLB were the strongest sectors and XLF was the weakest.
 
Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 4.61 to 1 on the NYSE and advancers led decliners 1.64 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, mixed
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up 2.50 at 210.46 on 228.4 million shares, double average volume
VIX down 1.69 at 13.97…
TNX down 1.07 at 19.51…
TLT up 2.49 at 131.49…
XLF up .14 at 24.70 on 47.8 million shares, above average volume

AAPL up 1.43 at 128.47 on 65.1 million shares
FB up 1.54 at 80.91…on 36.7 million shares, above average volume

Technical Commentary:
DIA + 1.25%, SPY + 1.20%, QQQ + 0.98%, IWM + 0.80%.

Wednesday’s FOMC announcement triggered broad based rally.  Prior to 2 pm ET, the SPX was negative and only two sectors were positive for the day.  After the announcement, all nine sectors rallied strong driving the SPX +25.22, +1.22% on Wednesday. 

The Euro rallied, bonds rallied and even oil closed higher.

IWM broke out of horizontal resistance to a new all-time high close.  Short-term breakout chart target: 127.73.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 208.97...
QQQ = 107.57, 108.94
IWM = 123.78, 124.85, 126.22…

Support Levels
SPY = 206.26, 205.05, 204.13...
QQQ = 105.73, 104.59, 103.44…
IWM = 122.77, 120.19, 119.83...

Earnings this Week
CTRP, JUNO, MFRM, NKE, XONE, YOKU,

Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – AVGO, CRM, MNST, ROST, ADSK, GOGO, SPWR, ESRX, CMCSA, ANGI, CAR, INTU, JWN, RAX, MAR, NEM, PCLN, Z, TRIP, FEYE, CSCO, NVDA, AKAM, WFM, Z, EEFT, TMH, CTLT, SKX, NTES, WCG, ADP, ATVI, CTSH, FISV, ONNN, ORLY, SIRI, UA, VRSN, AMZN, AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM, CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB, WDC, X, NFLX, ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX, SWKS, TRV, UAL, UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM

More than 10% - AVGO, MNST, CRM, SPWR, ANGI, UPL, TRIP, FEYE, EEFT, TMH, MLM, SEE, LNKD, TWTR, UBNT, ONNN, AMZN, BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X

Negative Reactions – XONE, JCP, SPLK, LL, LC, HPQ, SCTY, ZU, ZNGA, NTAP, BIDU, TSLA, HSIC, KRFT, SFUN, SOHU, ATML, CHRW, FOXA, GILD, GMCR, SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, QCOM, JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX, AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,

More than -10% - LL, LC, TPX, ZU, ZNGA, EXPE, GPRO, YELP, P, TPX, QCOM, FFIV, KBH,

Reversal in progress – ZNGA, AAL, AXP, BAC, BIDU, CHRW, FFIV, GILD, ISRG, JNJ, KBH, KLAC, MSFT, NTAP, SOHU, STX

Reversal of Initial ReactionAA, ALTR, ATML, C, BAC, IBM, KBH, KSU, MCD, FOXA, GMCR, HSIC, JDSU, JPM, KSU, PCAR, QCOM, SFUN, SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, XLNX, STT, TPX, TSLA,WDC, VRTX, WFC, ZION


The SPX Market Forecast is rising and at 66.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: SPY, BABA, CAR, CIEN, CSIQ, EXPE, FAS, FEYE, FSLR, GME, JASO, JD, JDSU, NTES, PANW, RCL, SPWR, STI, TSL, UAL, UBNT, UNG, UPL, X, CCL, TAN,  
Diagonal Breakout: ANGI, CMGE, GPRO, LVS, TWTR, V, Z,  
Bull Flag: AMBA, C, LOCO, MS, ZION  
Bear Flag: CREE, GPRO, HOG, JCP, KKD, LVS, SOHU,

Moves
New Highs: IWM, AIG, BBY, RAX, SCSS, UA, VSLR, NCLH, VRSN,  
H Breakout: AIG, FAS, JASO, TLT,  
D Breakout: FEYE, IBM, QIHU, SSYS
Bull Flag Bounce: BX, CMGE, SINA,   
Bounce: ATI, CAR, CRM, DDD, DGLY, EMC, GLW, HOG, HPQ, LNKD, NKE, RCL, SLCA, SPLK, X, XONE, Z, ANR,   
MACD Divergence Bounce: ESI, GLD, SCTY, X, YOKU
Bear Flag: DAL,
Support Break: SCHW, VXX, TBT

______________________


84 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday and two were unchanged.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BIDU, MYL, VIP, FOXA, TSLA, STX, EA, CA, VOD, CTSH

Lagging NDX stocks included: ADBE, MAT, LRCX, EBAY, NVDA, DISCA, WYNN, GMCR, ROST, BBBY

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday: X, SLCA, CMGE, ATI, XONE, DDD, CAR, SCTY, SSYS, UPL, LVS, ESI, YOKU, SPLK, SOHU, Z, RCL

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: JUNO, VXX, SCHW, JCP


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 56
MNST, CTSH, NXPI, SIRI, ATVI, BIIB, DLTR, VRSK, COST, GOOG, EXPD, VIP LBTYA, LMCA, NVDA, ROST, ADBE, CHTR, CMCSA, PAYX, ADI, AKAM, ADSK, AVGO, INTU, MAR, LVNTA, TRIP, CHKP, EBAY, SRCL, VRTX, CHRW, GMCR,SNDK, EQIX, REGN, MYL, ORLY, CERN, FB, SBUX, TSCO, AAL, ALTR, AMGN, CELG, FISV, ISRG, LLTC, SIAL, TXN, XLNX, AAPL, ALXN, FAST, YHOO

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
AMAT, BIDU, BRCM, CA, FOXA, PCAR, PCLN, SBAC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
DISCA

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADP, BBBY, ILMN, LLTC, VIAB, AMZN, QCOM, CSCO,  DISH, DTV, EA, LRCX, NTAP, WFM, ESRX, GILD, MDLZ, NFLX, WDC, CTXS, HSIC, KLAC, MSFT,MU, SPLS, STX, TSLA, CTRX, SYMC, VOD, WYNN, GRMN, KRFT, INTC, MAT

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up