Tuesday, March 10, 2015

SPX and Many Stocks Break ST Support...Defensive Posture...Flag Correction Continues...

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday…XLU, XLV and XLE were the strongest sectors and XLF was the weakest.
 
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.70 to 1 on the NYSE and weakened on the NASDAQ 3.12 to 1.


Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 3.38 at 204.98 on 157.1 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 1.63 at 16.69…
TNX down .69 at 21.26…
TLT up 1.64 at 126.28...
XLF down .52 at 23.82 on 40 million shares, above average volume

AAPL down 2.63 at 124.51 on 68.8 million shares
FB down 1.89 at 77.55…on 23 million shares

Technical Commentary:
QQQ – 1.86%, DIA – 1.73%, SPY – 1.62%, IWM – 1.15%.

Futures moved lower overnight as the Euro continued to fall and the dollar rise.  The rising dollar contributed to falling commodities including gold and oil.  Bonds rose and interest rates fell.

Broad indexes gapped lower on the open due to overnight futures trading.  SPY, DIA and QQQ closed near their lows of the day, while IWM formed a hammer type candle closing above its low of the day.

Semiconductor index moved lower on weakness in MU, MCHP, LRCX, INTC, ATML, SNDK and TXNMU, LRCX and INTC are below their 30 DMA and MCHP, ATML, SNDK and TXN closed above the 30 DMA.  AMBA not in the SOX index close higher along with NVDA.

Solar stocks FSLR, TAN, SPWR, CSIQ, JKS, TSL and JASO which have been stronger over the past two months are in bull flag price patterns.  VSLR which had a positive earnings reaction last week is in a three-day consolidation above S1 of Thursday’s large white candle.

The SPX/SPY break of short-term support and the MFC green line closing below 80 indicates a defensive posture at this time.  Those that were diligent in moving stops last week likely exited short-term bullish positions over the past five trading days and are awaiting a support bounce.  The long-term and intermediate term trends are still up.  The SPY is down -3.44% from the Feb 26 intra-day high a modest short-term correction.

Many stocks including the solar stocks above, semiconductor stocks SWKS, AMBA, AVGO, CAVM, CREE, MXIM, NXPI, ONNN and QRVO and other stocks AAPL, ABC, AMZN, ARMH, ATHM, CGNX, CNC, DLTR, EBAY, ETFC, FLTX, GOOG, IPGP, KR, LCI, MNST, PCLN, ROST, SBUX, SCHW, SCI, SPR, UTHR and WBA are still in strong up trends.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 206.26, 208.97...
QQQ = 107.57, 108.94
IWM = 121.41, 122.92…

Support Levels
SPY = 205.05, 204.13, 203.35, 200.94...
QQQ = 105.73, 104.59, 103.44…
IWM = 120.19, 119.08, 117.97...


Earnings this week:
COST, MYL, AMBA, BBY, CIEN, CSIQ, CTRP, JD, PANW, SSYS, TSL, VSLR

Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – AVGO, CRM, MNST, ROST, ADSK, GOGO, SPWR, ESRX, CMCSA, ANGI, CAR, INTU, JWN, RAX, MAR, NEM, PCLN, Z, TRIP, FEYE, CSCO, NVDA, AKAM, WFM, Z, EEFT, TMH, CTLT, SKX, NTES, WCG, ADP, ATVI, CTSH, FISV, ONNN, ORLY, SIRI, UA, VRSN, AMZN, AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM, CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB, WDC, X, NFLX, ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX, SWKS, TRV, UAL, UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM

More than 10% - AVGO, MNST, CRM, SPWR, ANGI, UPL, TRIP, FEYE, EEFT, TMH, MLM, SEE, LNKD, TWTR, UBNT, ONNN, AMZN, BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X

Negative Reactions – JCP, SPLK, LL, LC, HPQ, SCTY, ZU, ZNGA, NTAP, BIDU, TSLA, HSIC, KRFT, SFUN, SOHU, ATML, CHRW, FOXA, GILD, GMCR, SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, QCOM, JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX, AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,

More than -10% - LL, LC, TPX, ZU, ZNGA, EXPE, GPRO, YELP, P, TPX, QCOM, FFIV, KBH,

Reversal in progress – AAL, AXP, BIDU, CHRW, FFIV, GILD, ISRG, JNJ, KBH, KLAC, MSFT, NTAP, SOHU, STX, VRTX,

Reversal of Initial ReactionTSLA, QCOM, STT, TPX, WDC, ALTR, ATML, FOXA, GMCR, HSIC, JDSU, JPM, KSU, PCAR, SFUN, SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, HSIC, IBM, KBH, KSU, MCD, WFC, ZION


The SPX Market Forecast is at 70.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: BBY
Bull Flag: BX, CSIQ, ETFC, FSLR, GOGO, JASO, JUNO, PANW, RCL, SCHW, SPWR, STI, TSL, AVGO, GOOGL, MNST, ROST, TXN 
At Support: CTRP, DAL, DDD, LOCO, P, QIHU, WLT, YNDX, AAL, AKAM

Moves
H Breakout: CMGE 
Bounce: BABA, SOHU, TPX,     
MACD Divergence Bounce: GPRO
Gap Down: SPY, IWM, C, FAS
Support Break: BBRY, CAR, KKD, CYBR, VRSN, ADBE, ADSK, BRCM, DTV, MU, STX,   

______________________


5 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NVDA, VIP

Lagging NDX stocks included: STX, VRSK, MU, DISH, LRCX, ADSK, INTC, WDC, CMCSA, CTXS, EA, PCAR, EBAY, MDLZ, SYMC

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday: CMGE, SOHU, VXX, GPRO

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SLCA, FAS, ATI, FEYE, TWTR, CTRP, TSL, ZION, EMC, C, ESI, MTW, GLW


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 50
SIAL, MNST, CTSH, NXPI, SIRI, ATVI, BIIB, SBAC, SBUX, AMZN, DLTR, VRSK, AAPL, COST, GOOG, EXPD, VIP, LBTYA, LMCA, NVDA, ROST, TXN, ADBE, CHTR, CMCSA, PAYX, ADI, AKAM, ADSK, AVGO, INTU, MAR, PCLN, CSCO, LVNTA, TRIP, CHKP, DISCA, EBAY, QCOM, ALXN, FB, SRCL, VIAB, VRTX, CHRW, GMCR, SNDK, EQIX, REGN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 17
ALTR, BRCM, CA, CERN, DISH, DTV, EA, FISV, FOXA, LLTC, LRCX, MYL, NTAP, ORLY, TSCO, WFM, XLNX

Staying Below 30 DMA
AMAT, AMGN, BIDU, CELG, ESRX, GILD, ILMN, MDLZ, NFLX, WDC, ADP, CTXS, PCAR, HSIC, KLAC, MSFT, MU, SPLS, STX, TSLA, CTRX, SYMC, AAL, BBBY, ISRG, VOD, WYNN, GRMN, KRFT, YHOO, FAST, INTC, MAT

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

1 comment:

Scott Avery said...

Thanks Dave. great commentary today.