All nine sectors moved
lower on Tuesday…XLU, XLV and XLE were the strongest sectors and
XLF was the weakest.
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.70 to 1 on the NYSE and
weakened on the NASDAQ 3.12 to 1.
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
SPY down 3.38 at 204.98 on 157.1 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 1.63 at 16.69…
TNX down .69 at 21.26…
TLT up 1.64 at 126.28...
XLF down .52 at 23.82 on 40 million shares, above average volume
AAPL down 2.63 at 124.51 on 68.8 million shares
FB down 1.89 at 77.55…on 23 million shares
Technical Commentary:
QQQ – 1.86%,
DIA – 1.73%, SPY –
1.62%, IWM – 1.15%.
Futures moved lower overnight as the Euro continued to
fall and the dollar rise. The rising
dollar contributed to falling commodities including gold and oil. Bonds rose and interest rates fell.
Broad indexes gapped lower on the open due to
overnight futures trading. SPY, DIA
and QQQ closed near their lows of the day, while IWM formed a hammer
type candle closing above its low of the day.
Semiconductor
index moved lower on weakness in MU, MCHP, LRCX, INTC, ATML, SNDK and TXN. MU, LRCX and INTC are below their 30
DMA and MCHP, ATML, SNDK and TXN closed above the 30 DMA. AMBA not in the SOX index close
higher along with NVDA.
Solar
stocks FSLR, TAN, SPWR, CSIQ, JKS, TSL and JASO which have been stronger
over the past two months are in bull flag price patterns. VSLR which had a positive earnings
reaction last week is in a three-day consolidation above S1 of Thursday’s large
white candle.
The SPX/SPY
break of short-term support and the MFC green line closing below 80
indicates a defensive
posture at this time. Those
that were diligent in moving stops last week likely exited short-term bullish
positions over the past five trading days and are awaiting a support
bounce. The long-term and intermediate
term trends are still up. The SPY
is down -3.44% from
the Feb 26 intra-day high a modest short-term correction.
Many stocks including
the solar stocks above, semiconductor stocks SWKS, AMBA, AVGO, CAVM, CREE,
MXIM, NXPI, ONNN and QRVO and other stocks AAPL, ABC, AMZN, ARMH,
ATHM, CGNX, CNC, DLTR, EBAY, ETFC, FLTX, GOOG, IPGP, KR, LCI, MNST, PCLN, ROST,
SBUX, SCHW, SCI, SPR, UTHR and WBA are still in strong up trends.
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading and
continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 206.26, 208.97...
QQQ = 107.57, 108.94…
IWM = 121.41, 122.92…
Support Levels
SPY = 205.05, 204.13, 203.35,
200.94...
QQQ = 105.73, 104.59, 103.44…
IWM = 120.19, 119.08, 117.97...
Earnings this week:
COST, MYL, AMBA, BBY, CIEN, CSIQ, CTRP, JD,
PANW, SSYS, TSL, VSLR
Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – AVGO, CRM, MNST, ROST, ADSK, GOGO, SPWR,
ESRX, CMCSA, ANGI, CAR, INTU, JWN, RAX, MAR, NEM, PCLN, Z, TRIP, FEYE,
CSCO, NVDA, AKAM, WFM, Z, EEFT, TMH, CTLT, SKX, NTES, WCG, ADP, ATVI,
CTSH, FISV, ONNN, ORLY, SIRI, UA, VRSN, AMZN, AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM,
CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB, WDC, X, NFLX,
ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX, SWKS, TRV, UAL,
UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM
More than 10% - AVGO, MNST, CRM, SPWR, ANGI, UPL,
TRIP, FEYE, EEFT, TMH, MLM, SEE, LNKD, TWTR, UBNT, ONNN, AMZN,
BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X
Negative Reactions – JCP, SPLK, LL, LC, HPQ, SCTY, ZU, ZNGA,
NTAP, BIDU, TSLA, HSIC, KRFT, SFUN, SOHU, ATML, CHRW, FOXA, GILD, GMCR,
SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, QCOM, JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX,
AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA,
BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,
More than -10% - LL, LC, TPX, ZU, ZNGA, EXPE,
GPRO, YELP, P, TPX, QCOM, FFIV, KBH,
Reversal in progress – AAL, AXP, BIDU, CHRW, FFIV, GILD, ISRG,
JNJ, KBH, KLAC, MSFT, NTAP, SOHU, STX, VRTX,
Reversal of Initial Reaction – TSLA, QCOM, STT, TPX, WDC, ALTR,
ATML, FOXA, GMCR, HSIC, JDSU, JPM, KSU, PCAR, SFUN, SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, XLNX, AA,
BAC, C, HSIC, IBM, KBH, KSU, MCD, WFC, ZION
The SPX Market Forecast is at 70.
___________________
Setups
Horizontal Breakout: BBY
Bull Flag: BX, CSIQ, ETFC, FSLR, GOGO, JASO, JUNO, PANW,
RCL, SCHW, SPWR, STI, TSL, AVGO, GOOGL, MNST, ROST, TXN
At Support: CTRP, DAL, DDD, LOCO, P, QIHU, WLT, YNDX, AAL, AKAM
Moves
H Breakout: CMGE
Bounce: BABA, SOHU, TPX,
MACD Divergence Bounce:
GPRO
Gap Down: SPY, IWM, C, FAS
Support Break: BBRY, CAR, KKD, CYBR, VRSN, ADBE, ADSK, BRCM, DTV, MU, STX,
______________________
5 out of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Tuesday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NVDA, VIP
Lagging NDX stocks included: STX, VRSK, MU, DISH, LRCX, ADSK, INTC, WDC,
CMCSA, CTXS, EA, PCAR, EBAY, MDLZ, SYMC
Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday:
CMGE, SOHU, VXX, GPRO
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:
SLCA, FAS, ATI, FEYE, TWTR, CTRP, TSL,
ZION, EMC, C, ESI, MTW, GLW
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 50
SIAL, MNST, CTSH, NXPI, SIRI, ATVI, BIIB, SBAC,
SBUX, AMZN, DLTR, VRSK, AAPL, COST, GOOG, EXPD, VIP, LBTYA, LMCA, NVDA, ROST, TXN,
ADBE, CHTR, CMCSA, PAYX, ADI, AKAM, ADSK, AVGO, INTU, MAR, PCLN, CSCO, LVNTA,
TRIP, CHKP, DISCA, EBAY, QCOM, ALXN, FB, SRCL, VIAB, VRTX, CHRW, GMCR, SNDK,
EQIX, REGN
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
Moving Below 30 DMA = 17
ALTR, BRCM, CA, CERN,
DISH, DTV, EA, FISV, FOXA, LLTC, LRCX, MYL, NTAP, ORLY, TSCO, WFM, XLNX
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMAT, AMGN, BIDU, CELG, ESRX, GILD, ILMN, MDLZ, NFLX, WDC, ADP, CTXS,
PCAR, HSIC, KLAC, MSFT, MU, SPLS, STX, TSLA, CTRX, SYMC, AAL, BBBY, ISRG, VOD,
WYNN, GRMN, KRFT, YHOO, FAST, INTC, MAT
6-month Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down
1 comment:
Thanks Dave. great commentary today.
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