For What It's Worth...

© 2026

Some of the narratives created on Wednesday don’t meet logic tests.  They sound plausible but they don’t offer supporting facts, just opinions.  In evaluation of information we ask, "is there vague or ambiguous language?"  An analytical mind would say, "show me the evidence."  

You can decide for yourself, but Wednesday’s post FOMC narratives don’t make sense.  Price action seemed to be market maker induced effects of the microstructure process not the alleged fears being described.  FWIW

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SPX, RUT, NDX, DJI Closed Lower after FOMC Left Rate Unchanged as Expected...Breadth Weakened...META Misses EPS, MSFT Beats...

© 2026

SPX -112.63, 7,316, opened slightly lower, and closed lower after the FOMC meeting where rates were unchanged as expected.  Nine (75%) of the FOMC committee voted to leave rates unchanged.  NDX closed lower below seven-week support. 

Breadth weakened decliners led on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ exchanges.

SPX advancers: GRMN GEHC CTSH SBAC INTU IT ADBE DOW DDOG WDAY ACN.

SPX decliners: LII VRT MAS KLAC MU SMCI FLEX COHR AMAT BG BLDR.

META -50.89, -8.66%, EPS miss and sales beat, a negative earnings reaction

MSFT +34.67, +8.88% earnings and sales beat, a positive earnings reaction

AAPL, AMZN report Thursday after market close.

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Day 12, Q2 Earnings season:

Thursday BMO: AEP, AOS, APD, AVY, BAX, BLDR, BMY, CI, EME, EXC, FTI, HII, HSY, ICE, IP, KKR, LH, LKQ, MA, MLM, MO, NCLH, PWR, REGN, SO, SOLS, TT, VLO, WTW, XEL, YUM,

Thursday AMC: AAPL, AEE, AES, AJG, AMZN, COIN, CPT, CTVA, DXCM, EIX, ERIE, ES, FSLR, GDDY, IR, LNT, LYV, MHK, MTD, SATS, SYK, WY,

Q2 First day reaction: +40%

Positive: GRMN, GEHC, CTSH, APH, EXE, BXP, MDLZ, ADP STX, IEX, F, BIIB, BH, IQV, INCY, SHW, NUE, RCL, PNR BRO KO, BA, UHS, ECL, PYPL, XYL, ITW, PCAR, AMT PFG, CDNS, BKR, SLB, DLR, VRSN, VZ, HCA, LMT, ALLE, URI, TMO, DGX, RTX, CSX, HON, ROP, NSC, UNP, TSCO, PKG, LVS, BX, HAS, MMM, GM, STLD, DPZ, TRV, ABT, JBHT, PLD CFG, USB, UNH, BLK, BNY, CTAS, MTB, PNC, MS, GS, JPM, BAC, = 73

Neutral: V, CBRE, EXR, VRSK, VLTO, BSX, GNRC, TER, JCI, CNP, CMS, CNC, UDR, DTE, CINF, NEE, DECK, KMI, IBM, AVB, EQR, NDAQ, WST, MRSH, WRB, DHI, STT, CAG = 28

Negative: LII, VRT, MAS, KLAC, FTV, NXPI, PPG, HUM, SWKS, SW, OMC, ETR, GD, WED, PG, ACGL, CSGP, VMC, ODFL, SWK, WM, AON, FE, GLW, CARR, UPS, TXT, SPGI, HUBB, HLT, IVZ, WELL DINO, FFIV, INTC, CHTR, NEM, EW, HIG, TSLA, TMUS, ROL, DOV, GOOGL, GL, CMCSA, LUV, HBAN, CCI, NOW, PCG, TXN NVR, SNA, FCX, AMP, DOW, RJF, DHR, MSCI, HAL, EFX, GPC, SCHW, NOC, SYF, KEY, ISRG, NFLX, RF, FITB, TFC, GE, UAL PGR, ELV, JNJ, C, WFC, FAST = 80

Bold is > +5% or -5%

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SK Hynix ADR, SKHY, closed 126.79, -2.60% on its fourteenth trading day.  IPO was at 149.  SK Hynix is a profitable company with over $65 billion in revenues (larger than SPCX) and $28 billion in annual profit.  The ADR is speculative because as a new IPO it does not have a track record to evaluate. 

SpaceX, SPCX, closed at 112.55, -3.32% formed a red spinning top candle today.  Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, is an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12. 

SPY -1.54%, above average volume of 70.6 million shares.

VIX +2.45, 20.66,

NDX -2.06% formed a red candle and closed below its June 9 support low and its 8-week sideways consolidation.

DJI, 51,594 -2.19%, fell to ST support on July 23.

Mega caps WMT, GOOGL rose and AAPL, BRK/B, MSFT, LLY, META, AMZN, AVGO, TSLA, NVDA, TSM, MU fell on Thursday.

Up:

Down: SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA,

The SPY MFC green line is down at 38.4, price-action closed below diagonal support from June 9 and 26 but is still above IT horizontal support and is short-term bearish. -12.8

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday led by XLE, XLP and XLRE 

39 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

51 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: EA, FAST, PCAR, CCEP, AMGN, CSX, KHC, ADP, MELI, PAYX, PYPL, REGN, CTAS, AAPL, GILD, PDD, FANG, INTU, NVDA, ROST, HON, ODFL, NVDA, EXC, ADSK, ROP, ADBE, BKNG, FAST, MDLZ, TRI, WDAY, ABNB, AXON. BKR, COST, CPRT, DASH, DDOG, DXCM, IDXX, MAR, MSFT, ORLY, TTWO, CMCSA, GEHC, MNST, PEP,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

KDP, NFLX, SBUX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

CEG, ODFL, VRTX, XEL,

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DJI, SPX, RUT Closed Higher...NDX Closed Lower as Semiconductor Stocks and Technology Sector Move Lower...

© 2026

SPX +15.60, 7,413, opened lower, formed a piercing candle pattern that closed higher.  NDX closed below seven-week support and formed a hammer. 

Breadth weakened slightly as advancers led on the NYSE and decliners led by just 47 stocks on the NASDAQ exchange.

META, MSFT report Wednesday after market close and AAPL, AMZN report Thursday after market close.

SPX advancers: IQV INCY SHW WDAY ZBRA HCA CRL NUE SOLV CTSH ACN.

SPX decliners: SNDK GLW COHR CARR MU STX LITE DELL AMD AMAT MRVL.

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Day 11, Q2 Earnings season:

Wednesday BMO: ADP, AON, APH, BH, BIIB, BSX, CBRE, CTSH, ETR, FTV, GD, GEHC,  GNRC, GRMN, HUM, IEX, JCI, LII, MAS, ODFL, PG, SW, SWK, VMC, VRSK, VRT, WEC, Wednesday AMC: ALGN, AWK, CHRW, CMG, EG, EQIX, ESS, FICO, FTNT, HOOD, INVH, LHX, LRCX, MAA, META, MGM, MSFT, ORLY, PSA, PTC, QCOM, REG, SBUX, TYL, VICI, VTR,

Q2 First day reaction: +44%

Positive: IQV, INCY, SHW, NUE, RCL, PNR BRO KO, BA, UHS, ECL, PYPL, XYL, ITW, PCAR, AMT PFG, CDNS, BKR, SLB, DLR, VRSN, VZ, HCA, LMT, ALLE, URI, TMO, DGX, RTX, CSX, HON, ROP, NSC, UNP, TSCO, PKG, LVS, BX, HAS, MMM, GM, STLD, DPZ, TRV, ABT, JBHT, PLD CFG, USB, UNH, BLK, BNY, CTAS, MTB, PNC, MS, GS, JPM, BAC, = 60

Neutral: CNP, CMS, CNC, UDR, DTE, CINF, NEE, DECK, KMI, IBM, AVB, EQR, NDAQ, WST, MRSH, WRB, DHI, STT, CAG = 19

Negative: GLW, CARR, UPS, TXT, SPGI, HUBB, HLT, IVZ, WELL DINO, FFIV, INTC, CHTR, NEM, EW, HIG, TSLA, TMUS, ROL, DOV, GOOGL, GL, CMCSA, LUV, HBAN, CCI, NOW, PCG, TXN NVR, SNA, FCX, AMP, DOW, RJF, DHR, MSCI, HAL, EFX, GPC, SCHW, NOC, SYF, KEY, ISRG, NFLX, RF, FITB, TFC, GE, UAL PGR, ELV, JNJ, C, WFC, FAST = 57

Bold is > +5% or -5%

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SK Hynix ADR, SKHY, closed 130.17, -8.98% on its thirteenth trading day.  IPO was at 149.  SK Hynix is a profitable company with over $65 billion in revenues (larger than SPCX) and $28 billion in annual profit.  The ADR is speculative because as a new IPO it does not have a track record to evaluate. 

News on Tuesday about China’s development of DUV technology contributed to a decline in semiconductor stocks.  BofA issued a note that it believes the ASML price decline was overdone.  Our research suggests that China’s DUV technology capacity through 2027 would likely only be equivalent to about 20% of ASML’s expected production.

SpaceX, SPCX, closed at 116.41, +2.56% formed a bullish engulfing candle today.  Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, is an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12. 

SPY +0.24%, below average volume of 46.9 million shares.

VIX -0.46, 18.21,

NDX -0.98% formed a hammer candle below its June 9 support low and its 8-week sideways consolidation.

DJI, 52,747 +1.03%, rose and closed near its all-time closing high on July 6.

Mega caps BRK/B, GOOGL, LLY, WMT, MSFT AAPL, NVDA rose and META, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, TSM, MU fell on Tuesday.

Up: DIA, SPY, IWM,

Down: QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line is down at 51.2, price-action closed slightly above its July 8 ST support and is defensive. -5.7

Seven of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday led by XLV, XLP and XLC 

59 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

52 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: EA, FAST, PCAR, CCEP, AMGN, CSX, KHC, ADP, MELI, PAYX, PYPL, REGN, CTAS, AAPL, GILD, PDD, FANG, INTU, NVDA, ROST, HON, ODFL, CEG, NVDA, EXC, XEL, ADSK, ROP, ADBE, BKNG, FAST, MDLZ, TRI, WDAY, ABNB, AXON. BKR, COST, CPRT, DASH, DDOG, DXCM, IDXX, MAR, MSFT, ORLY, TTWO, CMCSA, GEHC, MNST, VRTX, PEP,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

CMCSA, GEHC, MNST, VRTX, PEP,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

PLTR,

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