"Trends Matter Most"...DJI, SPX, NDX, RUT Closed Lower...Breadth Weakens Slightly...VIX Closed Slightly Lower...

© 2026

iBullyBear has been teaching over the past nine years and emphasizing in our morning sessions the past two weeks that: Trend is the most important factor in every trade!

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, today in his Jack Hole Symposium speech shared seven principles that guide his thinking on the appropriate conduct of monetary policy.  Sharing his first principle he said: “Trends matter most.”

Each morning, we review: Trade what you see. Trend direction. Trend strength.

What do we know?  SPX, DJI, RUT are in three-month uptrends.  NDX is in a three-month sideways trend.

SPX -19.23, 7,711, bull flag bounce paused on Friday.  Closed above 7,700 for a second day since August 19.  Breadth weakened as decliners led on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges.  The VIX made its second lowest close in 7 months.  RUT 2,972 pulled back on Friday.

SPX advancers: SOLS WDAY DPZ LULU NOW SLB AMZN CHTR BG EXPE EBAY.

SPX decliners: PYPL MRVL PCG GNRC LITE COIN COHR CIEN LRCX HOOD Q.

SPCX closed at 141.50, +0.63, on volume of 55 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12. 

SPY -1.75, -0.23%, below average volume of 36.7 million shares.

VIX -0.08, 14.43 second lowest close in 7 months. 

NDX -0.70% a bull flag bounce pause day.

DJI, 53,559 -0.02%, flag bounce pause day, red spinning top.

Mega caps AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, META, WMT, BRK/B rose, and LLY, MU, AVGO, TSLA, TSM, NVDA fell on Friday.

Up:

Down: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM,

The SPY MFC green line is up at 75.7, price-action on Friday, paused and remained above the high of the low day (August 20), a bull flag bounce pause day and is short-term bullish. +1.4

Five of eleven sectors were higher on Friday. 

43 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

54 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: AMGN, ADP, PAYX, REGN, INTU, ADSK, ROP, ADBE, BKNG, FAST, TRI, WDAY, ABNB, BKR, CPRT, DASH, DXCM, MSFT, CMCSA, GEHC, CEG, MDB, LITE, NFLX, PLTR, WBD, AXON, GILD, SPCX, VRTX, MU, MRVL, SNDK, KDP, PEP, CSX, MELI, MSTR, TSLA, SBUX, SNPS, CDNS, QCOM, CRWD, FTNT, NVDA, PANW, AAPL, AMZN, CCEP, GOOGL, ISRG, KHC, TMUS,   

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7

AAPL, AMZN, CCEP, GOOGL, ISRG, KHC, TMUS,   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

CRWV, FANG, LRCX, MDLZ, NBIS, PYPL,

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NDX, SPX, RUT, DJI Close Higher...Breadth was Mixed...VIX Closed Lower...CRWD +20%, NVDA +8% on EPS Reactions...

© 2026

SPX +55.29, 7,730, bull flag bounced above the HOLD.  First close above 7,700 since August 19.  Breadth was mixed as decliners led on the NYSE while advancers led on the NASDAQ exchange.  The VIX made its second lowest close in 7 months.  RUT 3,014 bounce after an 8-day bull flag pattern.

SPX advancers: CRM CRWD VEEV SNPS PANW NOW FTNT NVDA DDOG ADSK.

SPX decliners: HRL CASY TPR MRNA GNRC BBY EXPE LVS DLTR WYNN IP.

Positive EPS reactions:

CRWD +38.78, +20.50%, EPS $0.31 beats $0.29 estimate, sales $1.47B beat $1.44B estimate.

NVDA +18.32, +8.74%, EPS $2.22 beats $2.10 estimate, sales $96.221B beat $92.179B estimate.

SPCX closed at 140.87, +1.24, on volume of 55 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12. 

SPY +5.02, +0.66%, below average volume of 34.5 million shares.

VIX -0.70, 14.51 its second lowest close in 7 months. 

NDX +1.43% a bull flag bounce continuation.

DJI, 53,577 +0.20%, flag bounce continuation day, black spinning top.

Mega caps NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, TSM, MSFT, AAPL rose, and BRK/B, GOOGL, META, LLY, MU, AMZN, WMT fell on Thursday.

Up: QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line turned up at 74.3, price-action on Thursday, closed above the high of the low day (August 20), a bull flag bounce and is short-term bullish. +3.4

One of eleven sectors, XLK +3.16%, was higher on Thursday. 

51 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

53 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: AMGN, ADP, PAYX, PYPL, REGN, INTU, ADSK, ROP, ADBE, BKNG, FAST, MDLZ, TRI, WDAY, ABNB, BKR, CPRT, DASH, DXCM, MSFT, CMCSA, GEHC, CEG, MDB, CRWV, LITE, NFLX, PLTR, WBD, AXON, GILD, SPCX, VRTX, FANG, MU, MRVL, NBIS, SNDK, KDP, PEP, CSX, MELI, MSTR, TSLA, SBUX, LRCX, SNPS, CDNS, QCOM, CRWD, FTNT, NVDA, PANW,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

CRWD, FTNT, NVDA, PANW,  

Moving Below 30 DMA = 7

AMZN, ASML, AZN, CCEP, COST, CTAS, MNST,

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NDX Closed Higher...SPX, RUT, DJI Closed Lower...Afterhours: NVDA Up on EPS Beat...

© 2026

SPX -1.58, 7,675, spinning top closed above the high of the following candle.  Breadth weakened as decliners led on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges.  The VIX closed lower.  RUT 3,005 spinning top in an 8-day bull flag pattern.

The PCE report Core M/M 0.2% vs 0.2%, Y/Y 3.3% vs 3.3 estimate, inline, headline M/M 0.2% vs 0.1% Y/Y 3.7% vs. 3.6% estimate.   

After-hours:

NVDA +8.37, +3.98%, EPS $2.22 beats $2.10 estimate, sales $96.221B beat $92.179B estimate.

SPX advancers: LITE ANET CHRW WMB FFIV SJM CIEN WDC GLW DINO KMI.

SPX decliners: MRNA RDDT GDDY LLY BSX INTU HOOD ACN COIN TKO SMCI.

SPCX closed at 139.63, +1.68, on volume of 60 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12. 

SPY +0.17, +0.02%, below average volume of 28 million shares.

VIX -0.24, 15.21 closed lower. 

NDX +0.05% a bull flag pattern, again a close above the HOLD and a re-BO.

DJI, 53,577 -0.21%, flag bounce pause day, red spinning top.

Mega caps AAPL, META, MSFT, MU, BRK/B, TSM rose, and AMZN, AVGO, WMT, TSLA, GOOGL, NVDA, LLY fell on Wednesday.

Up: QQQ, SPY,

Down: IWM, DIA,

The SPY MFC green line is down at 70.9, price-action on Wednesday, closed above Monday’s high and also above horizontal resistance ($760.40) for a seventeenth day and is counter-trend defensive. -1.2

Five of eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday. 

48 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

56 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: AMGN, ADP, PAYX, PYPL, REGN, INTU, ADSK, ROP, ADBE, BKNG, FAST, MDLZ, TRI, WDAY, ABNB, BKR, CPRT, DASH, DXCM, MSFT, CMCSA, GEHC, CEG, AMZN, MDB, CRWV, LITE, NFLX, PLTR, WBD, AXON, GILD, SPCX, VRTX, FANG, MU, MRVL, NBIS, SNDK, KDP, PEP, CSX, CTAS, MELI, MSTR, TSLA, MNST, AZN, CCEP, COST, SBUX, ASML, LRCX, SNPS, CDNS, QCOM,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

CDNS, QCOM,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

NVDA, ORLY, PDD, TMUS,

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