©
2026
SPX -92.74, 7,408, opened and closed lower after the US/China
Summit ended. Why? Because there
were more sellers than buyers. Breadth
weakened as decliners led on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges.
When buyers fill their orders and they have
their desired position at that price level, buying decreases, this can create an
imbalance between demand and supply. If
volume is small compared with the outstanding shares and the trend remains up,
the intermediate term trend generally continues after the pause.
In our iBullyBear
mentoring we repeatedly teach and remind that “Trading is a decision-making
process.” Good trading is about making
good decisions, and we train our members to make good decisions.
Good trading is
also about doing objective analysis. We train
to members to look at the chart and “Trade what you see.” Nassim Taleb said, “Don’t tell me what
you think, tell me what’s in your portfolio.” Why? Because when an institution buys a stock
in their portfolio, we know their rigorous fundamental analysis indicates to their
portfolio manager that this company’s economic growth is worth taking a position
and risking real money.
When you look
at a chart you see what institutions are doing with the money they manage. Technical analysis is about what smart money
is doing.
Victor
Sperandeo who was highlighted in Jack Schwager’s The New Market Wizards
book, wrote: “Many people make the mistake of thinking that market behavior
is truly predictable. Nonsense. Trading in the markets is an odds game,
and the object is to always keep the odds in your favor.”
In my 40+ years
of experience in financial markets, I’ve seen no one that has proven they know
the future. People can guess, but that
is not knowing the future. Guessing and
knowing are NOT the same thing.
The technical reality
is that the broad market is in a seven-week uptrend. It is in an uptrend because there is more
institutional buying than selling.
Will this uptrend end someday in the future. Highly probable. Why?
Because every broad market uptrend in the past was followed by an end to
the uptrend.
No one knows
when it will end. If you don’t
want to take risk now: Go to cash.
If the uptrend continues you won’t receive any reward because you don’t
want to take any risk. That is okay.
If you do
want to earn the potential reward
of an uptrend, you must be willing to take the risk. The saying is “No risk, No reward.” That is accurate. Stock/equity investments carry risk. You can manage risk, intelligently, but you
can’t avoid risk if you want the potential rewards. Just decide if you
can take the risk. If you can,
fine. If you can’t or don’t want to,
fine. Just decide. Stop wasting your time listening to people
who are guessing about the future but pretending they know. They don’t. They never will.
SPX
advancers: DXCM FDS
WDAY NOW APA OXY DVN ADBE TYL XOM IT.
SPX
decliners: GLW COIN
F MU CIEN NEM INTC SMCI AMD ALB APTV.
Earnings season
was winding down this week with only 10 SPX companies
reporting. Next week retail stocks HD,
TGT, TJX, WMT and ROST report.
NVDA -10.42, -4.42%, a
pullback day on 180.9 million shares, EPS on May 20 AMC.
MU -51.35, -6.62%, a
bull flag pattern closed above Tuesday’s low.
SPY -1.20%, red
spinning top candle on above average volume of 60.4 million shares.
VIX +1.17, 18.43,
NDX -1.54%, red
spinning top candle, one-day bull flag pattern.
DJI, 49,526, -1.07%, pullback
below horizontal resistance.
Mega caps MSFT, AAPL rose and BRK/B,
META, WMT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSM, AVGO, NVDA, TSLA fell on Friday.
Up:
Down: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM,
The SPY
MFC green line is slightly
lower at 96.7,
price-action is short-term bullish. -1.9
One
of eleven
sectors (3.75%) was higher on Friday led by XLE, XLF and XLP.
37
of 100
NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
52 NDX stocks are above their 30
DMA: MRVL, ARM, AMD, CSX, AMZN, INTC, KLAC, MPWR, STX, WDC, CSCO, ADI, MCHP, TXN, AMAT, AVGO,
GOOGL, LRCX, AAPL, MU, NVDA, NXPI, SBUX, MNST, CDNS, QCOM, SNPS, MSFT, MSTR,
TTWO, APP, DDOG, PANW, CRWD, FTNT, KDP, TSLA, KHC, MDLZ, ADP, MDB, ZS, ASML, FANG, LIN, VRTX, COST, ADBE, DXCM, INTU, PAYX, WDAY,
NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
ADBE, DXCM, INTU, PAYX, WDAY,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
BKR,
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