NDX, SPX, RUT, DJI Closed Higher Following Wednesday's Press Conference Selloff...Breadth Strengthened...Mega Caps and Technology Stocks Led Thursday Rally...

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SPX +85.95, 7,637 a strong positive bounce back after the press conference selloff and after the FOMC raised fed funds rate 25 basis points on Wednesday.  Breadth strengthened as advancers led on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ exchanges. 

RUT 2,874 bounced +15.82. Oil /CL fell -0.93 and closed at 101.09.  

SPX advancers: GNRC SMCI MRNA INTC HPE SWKS SNDK AMD WDAY HPQ MU.

SPX decliners: TMUS DVA PSKY CPRT CSGP CMCSA BLDR AXON RDDT VRSK.

SPY +8.55, +1.13%, above average volume of 49.6 million shares, move above the high of the low day. 

VIX -2.27, 15.44 closed lower.

NDX +1.73% moved > the HOLD and closed above its 30 DMA.

DJI, 51,778 +0.61%, formed a bullish harami candle above support.

Up: QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA,

Down:

Mega caps MU, TSM, NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, META, LLY, AAPL, GOOGL rose, and WMT, BRK/B fell on Thursday.

SPCX closed at 154.81, +3.93, on volume of 83.9 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12.  In the end if buyers are greater than sellers the stock will rise.  People seem to be willing to speculate on this company’s fundamental future. 

The SPY MFC green line is down at 41.7 price-action on Thursday closed above the HOLD and re-broke out of June resistance and is short-term bullish. -2.7

Nine of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday.  XLK +2.25% led all sectors.

64 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

27 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: WBD, GILD, SPCX, MSTR, TSLA, QCOM, AAPL, ALNY, META, AMD, INTC, APP, AZN, CRWD, FTNT, PANW, ISRG, LITE, MRVL, PLTR, DDOG, GOOGL, MSFT, MU, NXPI, SNDK, WDAY,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7

DDOG, GOOGL, MSFT, MU, NXPI, SNDK, WDAY,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

KDP,  

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Fed Rate Hike 25 Basis Points...NDX Closed Higher...RUT, SPX, DJI Closed Lower...

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SPX -33.92, 7,551 was positive until the FOMC press conference at 2:30 pm EDT, when it fell more than $6 and closed down below last Thursday’s low.  Breadth strengthened but remained negative as decliners led on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ exchanges. 

RUT 2,858 fell to a 3-month low. Oil /CL fell -3.45 and closed at 102.02.  The Fed did announce a 25-basis point hike as expected by the ZQ fed funds traders, financial media and numerous commentators.  Tuesday and Wednesday we did hear Rick Rieder of BlackRock, Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Dan Greenhaus of Solus Asset Mgt, say they thought the Fed could have kept rates unchanged.

SPX advancers: LITE COHR AXON GEV EW INTC RVTY DELL MTD MRVL SMCI.

SPX decliners: JBHT ON FANG OXY TPL COP EXE EOG DVN FSLR HBAN.

SPY -3.34, -0.44%, above average volume of 58.9 million shares, was positive until the FOMC press conference at 2:30 pm EDT, when it fell more than $6 and closed below last Thursday’s low at short-term support. 

VIX +0.51, 17.71 closed higher.

NDX +0.02% sideways, closed lower at support.

DJI, 51,461 -1.21%, remained above Thursday’s short-term low.

Up: QQQ,

Down: IWM, SPY, DIA,

 

Mega caps TSM, NVDA, BRK/B, META, TSLA, AAPL, LLY, AVGO rose, and MU, WMT, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT fell on Wednesday.

SPCX closed at 150.88, +7.39, on volume of 181.4 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12.  In the end if buyers are greater than sellers the stock will rise.  People seem to be willing to speculate on this company’s fundamental future. 

The SPY MFC green line is down at 44.4 price-action on Wednesday closed below Thursday’s low short-term support and is defensive. -8.1

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday.  XLK +0.1% led and XLU was unchanged.

48 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

21 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: WBD, GILD, SPCX, KDP, MSTR, TSLA, QCOM, AAPL, ALNY, META, AMD, INTC, APP, AZN, CRWD, FTNT, PANW, ISRG, LITE, MRVL, PLTR,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

ISRG, LITE, MRVL, PLTR,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

ADP, FANG, MSFT, SNDK,

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SPX, DJI, NDX, RUT Closed Lower...Breadth Weakened...Short-term Support Held...Fed to Hike Rates?

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SPX -34.25, 7,585 opened and closed lower, closed 5 points above Thursday’s low.  Short-term support is holding.  Breadth weakened as decliners rose and led on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ exchanges. 

The VIX rose only 10 cents to 17.20.  What does a small increase in VIX mean to you?

RUT 2,870 fell to a 3-month low. Oil /CL rose +3.59 and closed at 105.48.  

The CME FedWatch tool gives a 92.4% probability to a 25-basis point hike.  After re-looking at the CPI chart and the categories in the release we don’t see the reason for the hike in the data.  If the Fed is data dependent, as they have claimed over the past 10+ years, the Fed Funds bond traders seem to be looking at 11 secret herbs and spices in the data.  Tom Lee offers his subjective opinion that the Fed is probably ceding to market pressures, not that the Fed thinks that’s the best course.

                        click to enlarge 

                      click to enlarge - Gemini AI

    

SPX advancers: SWKS RVTY APA DINO FFIV TMO CIEN LYB QCOM DVN DGX.

SPX decliners: COIN AXON JKHY CMG CASY DLTR CBOE TTWO SYY ROL DRI.

SPY -3.49, -0.46%, above average volume of 46.1 million shares, pulled back and stayed above last Thursday’s low at short-term support, watch for a potential break or bounce. 

VIX +0.10, 17.20 closed higher.

NDX -0.65% sideways, closed lower at support.

DJI, 52,093 -0.63%, remained above Thursday’s short-term low.

Up:

Down: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM,

Mega caps NVDA, META, BRK/B, MU rose, and LLY, AAPL, TSLA, WMT, TSM, GOOGL, AVGO, MSFT, AMZN fell on Tuesday.

SPCX closed at 143.49, -4.66, on volume of 72.4 million shares. Our view is that SPCX, with no earnings, remains an overvalued speculation.  IPO at 135 on June 12.  In the end if buyers are greater than sellers the stock will rise.  People seem to be willing to speculate on this company’s fundamental future. 

The SPY MFC green line is down at 52.5 price-action on Tuesday opened lower, bounced, closed below Thursday’s high, 5 points above Thursday’s low and is counter-trend defensive. -11.2

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Tuesday. 

26 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

21 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: WBD, GILD, SPCX, SNDK, KDP, MSTR, TSLA, QCOM, AAPL, ALNY, META, AMD, INTC, FANG, MSFT, ADP, APP, AZN, CRWD, FTNT, PANW,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

CPRT, GOOGL, ISRG, NFLX, PLTR, TMUS, TRI, WDAY,

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