Friday, February 6, 2015

Strong Jobs Report Rally Fizzles at Resistance After S&P Downgrades Greek Debt...

Two of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLF, XLE and XLY were the strongest sectors and XLU was the weakest.
 
Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.71 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.15 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down .57 at 205.55 on 125.6 million shares
VIX up .44 at 17.29…
TNX up 1.23 at 19.38…
TLT down 2.36 at 130.96...
XLF up .19 at 24.14 on 67.6 million shares

AAPL down 1.01 at 118.93 on 43.7 million shares
FB down 1.14 at 74.47…on 21.2 million shares

Technical Commentary:
IWM -0.11%, DIA -0.26%, SPY -0.28%, QQQ -0.61%.

A strong Jobs Report of 257,000 new jobs in January, ahead of forecasts of 230,000 set a positive tone for stocks on the open.  However when S&P downgraded Greece’s debt rating, the broad indices turned lower and closed down for the day.

The financial sector and earnings reactions is where the real action was on Friday.  Sector ETFs XLF and FAS along with individual stocks BAC, C, JPM, WFC, STI, ZION, MS, GS, ETFC and SCHW all gained on rising volume.

LNKD, TWTR, UBNT and ONNN gapped higher on strong earnings reactions and finished Friday with big gains on rising volume.

Inversely, YELP, GPRO, P, EXPE and TPX gapped lower on negative earnings reactions and finished Friday with big losses on heavy volume.


The SPX is a horizontal resistance and poised for a potential breakout.  The fact that XLF broke out of resistance and held that breakout on Friday’s close increases the potential for an SPX breakout next week.  Trade what actually occurs according to your rules.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 206.42, 208.97...
QQQ = 103.17, 104.58
IWM = 119.45, 120.82, 121.41…

Support Levels
SPY = 203.66, 202.51, 201.62...
QQQ = 102.10, 101.65, 100.48
IWM = 1117.38, 116.57, 115.32...


Earnings this week:
Monday: NTES, SOHU
Tuesday: AKAM, CERN, HSIC, REGN, SFUN, TRIP
Wednesday: AMAT, BIDU, FEYE, NTAP, SCSS, TSLA, WFM, Z, ZU
Thursday: JD, KRFT, ZNGA
Friday: 

Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – ADP, ATVI, CTSH, FISV, ONNN, ORLY, SIRI, UA, VRSN, AMZN, AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM, CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB, WDC, X, NFLX, ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX, SWKS, TRV, UAL, UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM

More than 10% - LNKD, TWTR, UBNT, ONNN, AMZN, BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X

Negative Reactions – ATML, CHRW, FOXA, GILD, GMCR, SRCL, SYMC, WYNN, QCOM, JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX, AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,

More than -10% - EXPE, GPRO, YELP, P, TPX, QCOM, FFIV, KBH,

Reversal in progress – AXP, ISRG, JNJ, JPM, QCOM, STT, 

Reversal of Initial Reaction – AA, BAC, C, IBM, KBH, KSU, MCD, WFC, ZION


The SPX Market Forecast rising at 58.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: SPY, AIG, ATI, C, CAR, CRM, HPQ, JNPR, LC, MFRM, MS, RAX, SPLK, SPWR, SWI, SUNE
Bull Flag: SWKS, BX, CSIQ, FSLR, LOCO, X, NFLX
Bear Flag:  SSYS

Moves
New Highs: ETFC,
H Breakout: XLF, KKD, QIHU
Breakout Test: IWM, UPL, BRCM, AA, JCP
Gap Up:  LNKD, TWTR, ONNN, UBNT, STI, ZION, BBY, SCHW, VRSN,
Gap Down: P, YELP, EXPE, TPX, GPRO, GLD
Bear Flag: MU

______________________


31 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NXPI, GMCR, DISCA, FOXA, ADSK, ATVI, VIAB, AMAT, CERN, AKAM

Lagging NDX stocks included: SYMC, LVNTA, INTU, SRCL, TRIP, EQIX, VRTX, GILD, SPLS, QCOM

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday: TWTR, UBNT, LNKD, SFUN, KKD, VRSN, SCHW, BBY, BAC, GOGO, MS, SPLK, SUNE, STI, QIHU

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: YELP, P, GPRO, EXPE, TPX, AMBA, NTES, RWLK, CTRP, AA, UAL, GLD, Z, SOHU, MBLY


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 51
WFM, SIAL, KRFT, MNST, CTSH, FISV, NXPI, SIRI, ATVI, BIIB, CERN, EA, NFLX, VOD, ILMN, SBAC, SBUX, AMZN, DLTR, TSCO, VRSK, AAPL, COST, GOOG, BBBY, CTRX, DISH, EXPD, GRMN, ORLY, TSLA, VIP, ADP, AVGO, BRCM, CA, CTXS, DTV, LBTYA, LMCA, NVDA, ROST, TXN, ADBE, CHTR, CMCSA, HSIC, PAYX, ADI, CELG, LLTC

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
AKAM, AMAT

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
EQIX, INTU, LVNTA, REGN, SRCL, SYMC                   

Staying Below 30 DMA
CHRW, GILD, SPLS, WYNN, ALXN, AAL, FB, LRCX, VRTX, BIDU, CHKP, MAR, MYL, CSCO, EBAY, ESRX, MSFT, YHOO, FAST, GMCR, INTC, ISRG, KLAC, MDLZ, WDC, QCOM, STX, TRIP, DISCA, FOXA, PCAR, PCLN,VIAB, ADSK, MAT, MU, ALTR, NTAP,SNDK, AMGN, XLNX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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