Wednesday, February 4, 2015

SPX Drops 17 Points Following ECB Comments on Greek Debt...DIS Gaps Higher...Airlines Take Off on Weaker Oil...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLY, XLK and XLP were the strongest sectors and XLE was the weakest.
 
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.83 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.59 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down .78 at 204.84 on 134.3 million shares
VIX up 1.00 at 18.33…
TNX up .17 at 17.97…
TLT up .23 at 134.80...
XLF down .06 at 23.71 on 30.4 million shares

AAPL up .91 at 119.56 on 70.1 million shares
FB up .23 at 75.63…on 20.2 million shares

Technical Commentary:
DIA +0.11%, QQQ -0.09%, IWM -0.37%, SPY -0.38%.

Before the open the ADP employment report came in a 213,000 new jobs in December, less than expected.  After the report SP futures fell 7 points and opened below Tuesday’s close.  After the open the SPX worked its way higher following slightly better than expected PMI Services Index and ISM Non-Mfg Index reports.  After the SPX reached positive territory shortly before the close, the ECB announced that Greek debt could no longer be used as collateral, which sent the SPX down 17 points in 10 minutes to close at 2,041.

After a strong three day rally, oil reversed sending the energy sector lower for the first time in four trading day.  XLE was down -1.32, -1.65% as the weakest sector after being the leading sector for the prior three days.  Airline stocks LUV, AAL, DAL, UAL, ALK and JBLU gained on the weaker oil prices.

DIS +7.18, +7.63% led both the DJIA and SPX following a strong earnings reaction.  SPX gainers included WHR, KSS, EW, SJM, GM, CTSH, WDC, HRL and LUV.  While oil stocks weighed on the SPX among the biggest losers were RL, GILD, CMG, CHRW and WYNN on negative earnings reactions.  SPLS, ABBV and FAST also were among SPX losers.

RUT Movers:  SLAB, XPO, MANH, EPAM, ESPR

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY = 205.06...
QQQ = 103.17, 104.58
IWM = 119.19, 119.45…

Support Levels
SPY = 202.51, 201.62, 200.20...
QQQ = 102.10, 101.65, 100.48
IWM = 1117.38, 116.57, 115.32...


Earnings this week:
Monday: 
Tuesday:  ADI, CHRW, FISV, GILD, WYNN
Wednesday: ADP, CTSH, FOXA, GMCR, NXPI, ORLY, SRCL, ATML, UA,
Thursday:  ATVI, CTXS, SIAL, SIRI, SYMC, VOD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, TWTR, UBNT, YELP, P, TPX, VRSN,
Friday: 

Q4 Earnings Reaction
Positive Reactions – CTSH, FISV, ADP, AMZN, AAPL, ALXN, BRCM, BX, CAVM, CELG, EA, FB, FSL, GLW, HOG, JNPR, TSCO, TSS, TUP, VIAB, WDC, X, NFLX, ALK, BHI, CREE, DAL, EBAY, ETFC, GE, HON, KMB, LUV, MXIM, SBUX, SWKS, TRV, UAL, UNH, UNP, SNX, LLTC, TSM

More than 10% - AMZN, BIIB, NFLX, FSL, EA, TUP, X

Negative Reactions – GILD, CHRW, WYNN, QCOM, JDSU, RCL, BABA, PCAR, YHOO, MSFT, STX, VRTX, AAL, ZION, AXP, ALTR, FFIV, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, KLAC, KSU, MCD, STT, XLNX, AA, BAC, C, JPM, KBH, WFC,

More than -10% - QCOM, FFIV, KBH,

Reversal in progress – BAC, C, IBM, JNJ, JPM, 

Reversal of Initial Reaction – WFC


The SPX Market Forecast rising at 42.

___________________

Setups
Horizontal Breakout: SPY, IWM, AAPL, NFLX, STX, WDC, TRIP, TXN, AA, AIG, BBY, CRM, CTRP, FAS, GOGO, QIHU, RAX, SCHW, SPLK, SPWR, STI, V, ROST,
Diagonal Breakout: AMBA, GLD, GDX, JNUG,
Bull Flag: SWKS, TLT, VXX, X, EA,  
Potential Bullish Divergence: MU               
Gap Down: FOXA, GMCR
Bear Flag: BABA, EMC,

Moves
New Highs: ETFC, NTES, SCSS, SOHU, UA, AAPL, COST, WFM,
H Breakout: ETFC, JCP, JD, YELP, YOKU,
Breakout Test: SLCA,
Bull Flag Bounce: AVGO, MNST,
Gap Down: SSYS, GILD,

______________________


53 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CTSH, AAL, WDC, CHTR, BRCM, ADSK, CMCSA, DISCA, MNST, FISV

Lagging NDX stocks included: SPLS, GILD, FAST, VIP, CHRW, WYNN, GMCR, MYL, REGN, NFLX

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday: DGLY, UAL, JCP, YOKU, SCSS, VXX, MFRM, GOGO, TWTR, DAL

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: VSLR, JUNO, X, MBLY, GPRO, TSL, LVS, CSIQ, UNG, ESI, JASO, FSLR, SUNE, GME, MTW, JNPR, ATI


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 46
WFM, SIAL, KRFT, MNST, CTSH, FISV, SIRI, NXPI, ATVI, BIIB, CERN, VOD, NFLX, EA, ILMN, SBUX, SBAC, LVNTA, AMZN, DLTR, VRSK, TSCO, AAPL, COST, GOOG, BBBY, CTRX, DISH, EXPD, GRMN, ORLY, TSLA, VIP, ADP, AVGO, BRCM, CA, CTXS, DTV, INTU, LBTYA, LMCA, NVDA, ROST, SRCL, TXN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
ADBE, CHTR, CMCSA, HSIC, PAYX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
CELG, CHRW, GILD, LLTC, SPLS, WYNN                   

Staying Below 30 DMA
REGN, ALXN, AAL, FB, HSIC, LRCX, VRTX, BIDU, CHKP, MYL, PAYX, SYMC, MAR, ADBE, CMCSA, COST, CSCO, EBAY, ESRX, MSFT, YHOO, EQIX, AMAT, FAST, INTC, ISRG, KLAC, MDLZ, GMCR, WDC, QCOM, STX, TRIP, AKAM, PCAR, PCLN, VIAB, ADI, DISCA, FOXA, CHTR, ADSK, MAT, MU, ALTR, NTAP, SNDK, AMGN, XLNX

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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