Wednesday, June 12, 2013

SPY Headed Lower Towards Thursday's Support...ULTA HMA, SE Gap Higher...Financials Move Lower...

All nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday… XLP, XLB and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector.

Breadth strengthened slightly decliners led advancers…4.26 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.31 to 1 on the NASDAQ…


Wednesday – strengthened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday - mixed
Friday – weakened slightly, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 1.35…volume 177.2 million shares
VIX up 1.52 at 18.59
TNX up .35 at 22.30
TLT down 1.63 at 112.33...
XLF down .21 at 19.44…volume 64.2 million shares                 

AAPL down 5.41 at 432.19volume 9.4 million shares
FB down .26 at 23.77volume 26.4 million shares


Technical Commentary:
QQQ – 1.16%, IWM – 0.99%, DIA -  0.89%,  and SPY – 0.83%.

Stock futures traded up overnight and the SPY opened higher and then sold off all day from the open in a series of intra-day bear flags.  Notwithstanding the stellar rally on Thursday and Friday the SPY is headed for a test of Thursday’s low at 160.25 and 1,596 on the ES futures. 

Traders must be prepared for a potential break of support and trade to the downside while at the same time aware that a potential double bottom and MACD bullish divergence could form and set up opportunities to the upside.

The VIX, 18.59, jumped on the SPX weakness and made its highest close since Feb 25.

Interest rates rose and bonds TLT -1.63 fell.  The Euro up 23 pips closed at 1.3335 above its recent horizontal resistance breakout at 1.3243.

ULTA +14.87% gapped up following earnings after the close on Tuesday.

FSLR -5.63 dropped on announcement of a secondary offering of 8.5 million shares at 46.
Other solar stocks CSIQ, JASO, SPWR, YGE and TSL drifted lower.

TSLA +3.45% closed at 97.73.

FB -1.08% pulled back after gapping higher on Monday out of a W pattern base with MACD histogram bullish divergence.

The current market condition is a pullback to support test.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up and the short-term trend is neutral with the shorter two-day trend downAdjust stops and trade to targets according to your rules.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 

When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 

When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance

Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed downDefensive posture.

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Setups
H Breakout:  AMGN,  BBBY, MNST, NTAP, SNDK, STX, ANGI, ESI, GME, XONE,

Diagonal Breakout:  CELG, ESRX, GILD, NUAN, ORCL, ROST, ALK, ATI, BAC, F, P, RCL, SCTY, SSYS, TPX, UNG, ZION,

Bull Flag:  AMZN, BIDU, MSFT, SBUX, CREE, GS, JNPR, MFRM,

Potential Bullish Divergence:   

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag: 

At Support:   ATVI, CMCSA, COST, EBAY, FAST, MAT, QCOM, WYNN, C, CRM, FIVE, SINA, VECO,



Moves
New Highs:  AMAT, CSCC,

Gap Up:  ULTA, HMA, SE, HLF, HPQ

Gap Down:  FSLR,

H&D Breakout:  NTES,

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  GLD,

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:  

Support Break: 

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10 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Wednesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: EXPE, MNST, SYMC, MSFT, NTAP

Lagging NDX stocks included:  BIIB, REGN, EQIX, XLNX, NFLX, AKAM, SIRI, LMC, DLTR, MU, EBAY, VOD, BRCM, GILD, SHLD

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: HLF, TSLA, TBT, FAZ,

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  MCP, JDSU, TSL, NFLX, SINA, SWKS, URE, NTS, FAS,  ZION, GRPN, ANF, CSTR


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 27
MSFT, LIFE, INTC, WFM, WDE, AMAT, STX, CA, ESRX, CERN, PCLN, MU, NTAP, SPLS, BIDU, HSIC, SNDK, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, MNST, MYL, SBUX, BBBY, VRTX, CTRX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
CHKP, DLTR, GOOG, KLAC, ORLY, PCAR, VOD, XLNX, YHOO, LMCA

Staying Below 30 DMA
DELL, DTV, EXPD, FOSL, GOLD, LINTA, NVDA, ORCL, SIAL, WYNN, TXN, ADI, BIIB, CTSH, INTU, SIRI, VIAB, LBTYA, REGN, COST, AAPL, ALTR, NFLX, ADBE, FAST, LLTC, MCHP, NWSA, KRFT, ADP, AKAM, BMC, FFIV, PAYX, SRCL, XRAY, DISCA, BRCM, CELG, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, CTXS, EBAY, GRMN, ROST, FISV, MAT, MDLZ, CHRW, CMCSA, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, EQIX, VRSK, ADSK, AMGN, EXPE, SYMC, MXIM, FB, NUAN

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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