Wednesday, June 5, 2013

SPY Breaks 38% Fib, Falls to 50% Fib in Ten Day Pullback...TSLA, JNPR Bounce...MU New High

All nine of the nine sectors moved lower on Wednesday…however XLU, XLK and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLB was the weakest sector.

Breadth weakened decliners led advancers…4.41 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.04 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, mixed
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led

LMCA replaced VMED in the NDX 100 on Wednesday morning June 5.
NFLX will replace PRGO in the NDX 100 Thursday morning June 6.


SPY down 2.29 at 161.27volume 211.4 million shares
VIX up 1.23 at 17.50
TNX down .37 at 21.00
TLT up 1.57 at 115.29...
XLF down 32 cents at 19.36…volume 88 million shares                  

AAPL down 4.20 at 445.11volume 10.3 million shares
FB down 62 cents at 22.90volume 53.7 million shares


Technical Commentary:
DIA -1.54%, SPY -1.40%, QQQ -1.30% and IWM -1.28%.

The SPY opened lower and traded above Monday’s support low for the first hour when selling pressure sent prices lower falling below its 38.2% Fib retracement level.  The SPY fell to and closed at 161.27, four cents below its 50% Fib level.

As expected when a support level breaks the next support level is the most probable price level.  Random?  Maybe but that’s twice this week alone.  We looked for a support bounce or break on Wednesday and the SPY produced the break with a nice one day payoff.  We will continue to look for a potential bounce move on Thursday. 

TSLA today formed a bounce entry, confirmation of Wednesday’s bullish harami and a hammer in its bull flag pattern. 

JNPR +6.61% formed a large bullish engulfing in its bull flag pattern that was also a horizontal breakout entry on the same day.

XLF, XLI and XLK turned neutral.  Six sectors closed just below their 30 DMA today.  Five sectors are neutral and four negative.  The current sector structure is neutral and the shortest (four-week) intermediate term trend on the SPY turned neutral.

When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.  When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries.  When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.  The current market condition is sideways with a potential support bounce forming.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up with short-term trend down.  Traders should lock in profits when targets are reachedLook for potential entries on a bounce or break of support according to your rules.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


Earnings this Week: CIEN before the open Thursday.

EPS Reaction Summary
EPS Gainers –  GES, SPLK, PWRD, HPQ, NTAP, AZO, MDT, CSCO, A, MCP, WCRX, NVDA, PCLN, GMCR, GRPN, TSLA, EA, DVA, WFM, CTSH, DTV, LBTYA, AIG, ADP, CBOE, REGN, FB, BZH, EXPD, GM, MDC, STX, V, YELP, ICE, JRCC, VIAB, CMCSA, DDD, AVP, HLF, CERN, CVX, DHI, TWC, ANGI, AKAM, ALXN, ALTR, BIIB, COG, CLF, CROX, DOW, ESI, FFIV, HOG, LRCX, LVS, MO, PHM, RCL, SIAL, XLNX, BA, BRCM, GLW, HES, DAL, COH, DD, NFLX, ILMN, VECO, LCC, RF, ZION, TRV, LMT, CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, CMG, GOOG, KMB, STI, MSFT, BTU, PEP, UNP, VZ, MAT, AXP, JNJ, INTC, KO, C, APOL

EPS Losers – CPRT, COST, TSL, CRM, GME, SHLD, DISH, XRAY, ATVI, RAX, MNST, Z, LNKD, TPX, ZAGG, CTRX, GRMN, MRK, SWI, AMZN, BIDU, CRUS, DECK, EXPE, HSY, KLAC, MXIM, QCOM, PTEN, ABC, MMM, AMGN, T, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, GE, IBM, ISRG, MCD, MS, PM, UNH, SNDK, EBAY, BAC, USB, GS, LLTC


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed downDefensive posture.

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Setups
H Breakout:  MNST

Diagonal Breakout:  NTAP, SPY, QQQ, IWM, QCOM, ROST, SIRI, ATI, CNX, FSLR, SPLK, ZION

Bull Flag:  GOOG, TSLA, SCTY, RVBD, SOHU, MYL, AMAT, DTV, ESRX, INTC, MAT, MSFT, SBUX, SNDK, STX, WDC, WFM, WYNN, XLNX, BAC, C, CIEN, CREE, GS, DDD, F, GRPN, GS, NTES, SCSS, STI, TBT, VECO, XONE

Potential Bullish Divergence:  

Gap Up: MFRM

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag: 

At Support:  AAPL, ADSK, ATVI, CMCSA, COST, CTSH, NUAN, SHLD, BBRY, CNX, DDD, P, SWI, UNG,


Moves
New Highs:  MU,

Gap Up:   

Gap Down:  FAST,

H&D Breakout: JNPR

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  BBBY, JNPR, ESI, RVBD, TLT

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:   

Support Break:   CELG, EBAY, FAST, FB, GILD, GRMN, NVDA, ALK, ANR, FAS, GLW,

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12 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MU, BBBY, EQIX, CTXS, AMZN, ISRG, CHKP

Lagging NDX stocks included:  FAST, CELG, GILD, DISCA, SIRI, SPLS, NWSA, AMGN, FB, LBTYA, LMCA, INTC, FOSL, BIIB, AMAT, NUAN

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: ESI, JNPR, FAZ, YELP, RVBD

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  TSL, LDK, CLF, FAS, HLF, GLW, CROX, CREE, MCP, F, MOS, UAL, GRPN, TBT, RCL, CSTR, VMW, DECK, C, AKS, ZION, GS, URE


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 35
MSFT, LIFE, INTC, WFM, WDC, AMAT, LMCA, SIAL, STX, CA, ESRX, PCAR, XLNX, CERN, AAPL, KLAC, LINTA, CHKP, ORCL, ADI, PCLN, MU, NTAP, SPLS, ALTR, BIDU, HSIC, SNDK, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, GOLD, DELL, MNST

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 17
ADBE, COST, CTSH, DTV, EXPD, FAST, FOSL, KRFT, LLTC, MCHP, NVDA, NWSA, ORLY, SBUX, SIRI, TXN, YHOO

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADP, AKAM, BIIB, BMC, DISCA, DLTR, FFIV, GOOG, MYL, PAYX, SRCL, VRTX, WYNN, XRAY, BRCM, CELG, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, BBBY, CTXS, EBAY, GRMN, REGN, VIAB, LBTYA, ROST, FISV, MAT, MDLZ, PRGO, CHRW, CMCSA, SBAC, SHLD, QCOM, EQIX, VOD, VRSK, ADSK, AMGN, EXPE, SYMC, FB, MXIM CTRX, NUAN, INTU

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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