Friday, June 21, 2013

SPY Finds Support at 61.8% Fib Level...FB, ZION, MU Rally...AAPL, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN Lower...on First Day of Summer...

Seven out of 9 sectors moved higher Friday… XLP, XLU and XLV were the strongest sectors…XLK was the weakest sector on the first day of summer and triple-witching expiration Friday.

Breadth strengthened…advancers led decliners…1.00 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.44 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led



SPY up .51…volume 271.9 million shares
VIX down 1.59 at 18.90…
TNX up .95 at 25.14
TLT down 1.87 at 108.40...
XLF up .02 at 19.11…volume 85.6 million shares                 

AAPL down 3.34 at 413.50volume 17.1 million shares
FB up .63 at 24.53volume 45.8 million shares


Technical Commentary:
SPY + 0.32%, IWM + 0.30%, DIA + 0.31%, QQQ – 0.52%.

Stock futures rallied Thursday night, opened higher, pulled back to its weekly low at 157.47 before settling into a trading on expiration Friday.  The SPY formed a hammer and bullish harami pattern in a lower low potential MACD histogram bullish divergence.  Potential bullish entry is above Friday’s potentially bullish hammer candle pattern.

The SPY lost -3.32% for the week, its largest weekly loss in 2013.  The SPY did find support at least for Friday at its 61.8% Fib level off its April 18 low.

Bottom line institutions on balance reacted this week as if they were negatively surprised by the Feds forward look on potential future tapering.

If the SPY does bounce above Friday’s high look for a short-term target at 161.84.

Weakness in AAPL, GOOG, PCLN and NFLX kept the NDX in negative territory on Friday.

The Euro was dropped 104 pips to close at 1.3121, its 50% Fib retracement level from its May 16 low. TNX interest rates jumped again to its highest close since Aug 3, 2011.    TLT bonds -1.69% moved significantly lower.

ADBE -0.28% formed a hammer in day three of a bull gap earnings flag after reporting earnings after the close Tuesday.

ZION +1.64% gave a diagonal bullish breakout on Friday after rising on Thursday. 

FB up 63 cents is a horizontal breakout setup above 24.95 entry with a price target of 27.23 if a breakout occurs.  FB announced on Thursday it was adding 15 second video to its Instagram service which is believed to have the potential to generate significant revenue for the company.

GRPN +5.44% is a potential horizontal bullish breakout while RAX +5.92% and CRM +4.22% are forming potential reversal patterns.

MU up 36 cents bounced following a one day pullback after reporting positive earnings after the close on Wednesday.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The multi-month intermediate term trend is up, the four-week trend is down and the ten-day short-term trend is down at potential support.  Chart Signals reiterates our Wednesday night guidance…Adjust stops, trade to targets and take bearish trades according to your rules as the month long consolidation continues.  A few bullish setups did appear on Friday and as always follow your rules.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 

When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 

When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance

Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


EPS Reaction Summary
EPS Gainers –  ADBE, ULTA, EA, DVA, WFM, CTSH, DTV, LBTYA, AIG, ADP, CBOE, REGN, FB, BZH, EXPD, GM, MDC, STX, V, YELP, ICE, JRCC, VIAB, CMCSA, DDD, AVP, HLF, CERN, CVX, DHI, TWC, ANGI, AKAM, ALXN, ALTR, BIIB, COG, CLF, CROX, DOW, ESI, FFIV, HOG, LRCX, LVS, MO, PHM, RCL, SIAL, XLNX, BA, BRCM, GLW, HES, DAL, COH, DD, NFLX, ILMN, VECO, LCC, RF, ZION, TRV, LMT, CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, CMG, GOOG, KMB, STI, MSFT, BTU, PEP, UNP, VZ, MAT, AXP, JNJ, INTC, KO, C, APOL

EPS Losers – MU, CPRT, COST, TSL, CRM, GME, SHLD, DISH, XRAY, ATVI, RAX, MNST, Z, LNKD, TPX, ZAGG, CTRX, GRMN, MRK, SWI, AMZN, BIDU, CRUS, DECK, EXPE, HSY, KLAC, MXIM, QCOM, PTEN, ABC, MMM, AMGN, T, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, GE, IBM, ISRG, MCD, MS, PM, UNH, SNDK, EBAY, BAC, USB, GS, LLTC


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed down

____________________

Setups
H Breakout:  XONE,

Diagonal Breakout: GRMN, MU, SYMC, WFM, BBRY, CMG, FIVE, MFRM, RAX, SPLK, STI, UNG, WLT, Z,

Bull Flag: ADBE, AMAT, AMGN, BBBY, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MNST, MYL, NTAP, NVDA, PCLN, SBUX, SNDK, STX, WDC, CIEN, CREE, GMCR, GS, NFLX, PWRD, SCSS, YELP,

Potential Bullish Divergence:  

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag: 

At Support:  BRCM, CELG, CTSH, DTV, FFIV, MAT, NUAN, ROST, TXN, CLF, CNX, ESI, LVS, SOHU, SWI, TPX, UAL,



Moves
New Highs:  ANGI, GRPN,TBT,     

Gap Up: 

Gap Down:  ORCL,

H&D Breakout: CRM, ZION,  

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  AMGN, CMCSA, ESRX,   

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:  

Support Break:  ADSK, QCOM, SIRI, YHOO, DDD,

______________________


54 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  DTV, MU, FB, CMCSA, AMGN, MXIM, MDLZ, GOLD, LBTYA, GRMN, LLTC, PAYX, DISCA, ESRX, ADI, XLNX

Lagging NDX stocks included:  ORCL, SIRI, NFLX, ATVI, FOSL, WDC, CTXS, FFIV, REGN, WYNN, EXPE, LMCA, STX, AKAM

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: GRPN, CRM, LDK, CHL, TBT, CSTR, URE, TSL, CDE

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  SGOC, ESI, GMCR, SSYS, ZAGG, DECK, UAL, VMW, CREE, LVS, SOHU, UCO, AKS, ANR, C, JNPR, CLF, NTES


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 14
LIFE, PCLN, MU, NTAP, SPLS, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, SBUX, BBBY, EXPE, ORLY, ADBE

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
GOOG, SNDK, STX, LMCA

Staying Below 30 DMA
AMAT, CA, DELL, DLTR, ESRX, GOSL, HSIC, INTC, KLAC, MCHP, MYL, NVDA, PCAR, WFM, XLNX, ADI, CTRX, WDC, NFLX, ADP, CERN, CHKP, CHRW, COST, DTV, EXPD, FISV, GRMN, LINTA, NUAN, ORCL, PAYX, ROST, SRCL, VOD, WYNN, YHOO, MDLZ, DISCA, VRSK, DRFT, BIDU, VRTX, GOLD, SIAL, TXN, BIIB, CTSH, INTU, SIRI, VIAB LBTYA, REGN, AAPL, ALTR, FAST, LLTC, NWSA, AKAM, BMC, FFIV, XRAY, BRCM, CELG, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, CTXS, EBAY, MAT, CMCSA, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, EEEEQIX, ADSK, AMGN, SYMC, MXIM, FB

Four-Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down

Ten-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

No comments: