Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Markets Move Lower After BOJ Remains Unchanged and Fed Fears Resurface...TSLA, FSLR, FAS Lower...GME Higher...

Nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday… XLP, XLV and XLU were the strongest sectors…XLF was the weakest sector.

Breadth weakened decliners led advancers…6.70 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.80 to 1 on the NASDAQ…


Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday - mixed
Friday – weakened slightly, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led


NFLX replaced PRGO in the NDX 100 on Thursday morning June 6.


SPY down 1.70…volume 159. 5 million shares
VIX up 1.63 at 17.07
TNX down .20 at 21.95
TLT up 1.34 at 113.96...
XLF down .33 at 19.65…volume 70.6 million shares                 

AAPL down 1.29 at 437.60volume 10.2million shares
FB down .30 at 24.03volume 29.8 million shares


Technical Commentary:
IWM – 1.08%, SPY – 1.03%, QQQ – 0.99%, and DIA – 066%.

Stock futures traded down overnight and the SPY opened lower and then rallied for the first two hours of trading rising to near Monday’s lows.  Buying pressure exhausted and seller were able to push prices lower with the close 21 cents lower than the open.  The SPY formed a spinning top closing above its 50% Fib retracement from Thursday’s low.

Tuesday’s losses were again attributed to Asian weakness as the BOJ kept rates at current levels and renewed concerns on the Fed tapering its asset purchases.

Interest rates fell and bonds TLT +1.19% gained.  The Euro up 57 pips closed at 1.3312 above its recent horizontal resistance breakout at 1.3243.

Solar stocks FSLR, CSIQ, JASO, SPWR, YGE and TSL which were sizzling hot on Monday crashed and burned on Tuesday giving back most or all of the prior day’s gains.  GME +7.80% reversed Monday’s selloff.

TSLA -5.58% closed below 95 near last Wednesday’s low.

The Euro up 35 pips closed at 1.3255.

FB +4.46% broke out of diagonal resistance and rallied higher out of a W pattern base with MACD histogram bullish divergence.

The current market condition is support bounce pause.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up and the short-term trend is again neutral.  Many bull flag entries and diagonal breakout entries including the broad and sector indexes occurred on Friday.  Adjust stops trade to targets according to your rules.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 

When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 

When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance

Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed downDefensive posture.

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Setups
H Breakout:  XONE, ANGI, ESI, SCSS, MNST, SNDK, STX,

Diagonal Breakout:  CMG, BBRY, DDD, F, FAS, FSLR, GLD, GLW, GMCR, JCP, NTES, SCTY, SINA, SOHU, TSLA, YELP, AAPL, AMAT, CELG, COST, ESRX, GILD, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN, WFM, YHOO

Bull Flag:  CREE, GS, JNPR, MRFM, STI, TBT, TIF, TPX, AMZN, BIDU, CSCO, MSFT, SBUX,

Potential Bullish Divergence:  ATI,

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag:  CMG, RAX, FAS, P, SPLK, SSYS, YELP, Z, CELG, GILD, SYMC,

At Support:  ALK, CTSH, BAC, C, CLF, CRM, FIVE, NFLX, SWI, VECO, AAPL, AKAM, CMCSA, COST, FAST, QCOM, TXN,


Moves
New Highs:  CIEN, PWRD, MU, WDC, SGOC

Gap Up: 

Gap Down:  LVS, MFRM,

H&D Breakout: GME,

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  TLT,  


MACD Divergence Bounce: FB,

Bear Flag:  GLW, LNKD, RCL, SPY, UAL, ADBE, AMGN, DTV, GRMN, WYNN,

Support Break:   CNX, LVS, UNG, WLT, ADSK, BRCM, FFIV, XLNX,

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14 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Tuesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CTRX, ALXN, CELG, NUAN, MDLZ, CTSH, BIIB, FISV

Lagging NDX stocks included:  TXN, BIDU, WYNN, XLNX, NFLX, GOLD, FFIV, KLAC, FOSL, ATVI, CHKP, EBAY, AMZN, ADBE, LLTC, BRCM, CA, INTU, ISRG

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: FAZ

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  LDK, TSL, TSLA, FAS, CREE, CROX, JNPR, C, SWKS, RVBD, SINA, MOS, LNKD, URE, MCP, NFLX, CRUS


Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 36
MSFT, LIFE, INTC, WFM, WDC, AMAT, STX, LMCA, CA, ESRX, PCAR, XLNX, CERN, KLAC, CHKP, PCLN, MU, NTAP, SPLS, BIDU, HSIC, SNDK, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, MNST, DLTR, MYL, SBUX, YHOO, BBBY, GOOG, ORLY, VRTX, VOD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
CTRX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
DELL, DTV, EXPD, FOSL, GOLD, LINTA, NVDA, ORCL, SIAL, WYNN, TXN, ADI

Staying Below 30 DMA
BIIB, CTSH, INTO, SIRI, VIAB, LBTYA, REGN, COST, AAPL, ALTR, NFLX, ADBE, FAST, LLTC, MCHP, NWSA, KRFT, ADP, AKAM, BMC, FFIV, PAYX, SRCL, XRAY, DISCA, BRCM, CELG, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, CTXS, EBAY, GRMN, ROST, FISV, MAT, MDLZ, CHRW, CMCSA, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, EQIX, VRSK, ADSK, AMGN, EXPE, SYMC, MXIM, FB, NUAN

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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