Friday, June 7, 2013

Big Money Sends SPY Higher on Big Dollars...Industrials and Financials Lead...TSLA Closes Above 102 Again...

All nine sectors moved higher for the second straight day on Friday… XLI, XLY and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.

Breadth weakened slightly advancers led decliners…2.25 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.07 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – weakened slightly, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – strengthened, mixed

NFLX replaced PRGO in the NDX 100 on Thursday morning June 6.


SPY up 2.07 at 164.80volume 188.3 million shares
VIX down -1.49 at 15.14
TNX up .86 at 21.61
TLT down -2.06 at 113.16...
XLF up .34 at 19.97…volume 53.2 million shares                 

AAPL up 3.35 at 441.84volume 14.4 million shares
FB up .32 at 23.29volume 38.7 million shares


Technical Commentary:
DIA + 1.38%, QQQ + 1.37%, SPY + 1.27% and IWM + 0.77%.

The SPY gapped up after the Jobs Report showed 175,000 new jobs created in May and moved higher all day, closing near its high of the day for the second straight day.  The SPY regained 52% of its drop over the prior ten days in just the last two trading days.

The gain in the SPY on Thursday and Friday, is the strongest two day rally of 2013 based on volume, being the first and third highest share volume days of 2013. 

When looking at SPY volume on a dollar basis Jan 2, the second highest share volume day of 2013, traded $27.786 billion.  Thursday’s SPY dollar volume was $32.316 billion and Friday’s was $32.695 billion.  When observing dollar volume, volume actually increased from Thursday to Friday.  Big money was is behind this rally in a big way!  (Dollar volume numbers were based on average price for each day.)

TSLA +4.82% closed above $102 again continuing its bounce in its bull flag pattern. 


The current market condition is support bounce entry and trend resumption.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up and the short-term trend is again up.  Many bull flag entries and diagonal breakout entries including the broad and sector indexes occurred on Friday.  Trade to targets according to your rules.



Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.  

When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries.  

When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.  

Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


EPS Reaction Summary
EPS Gainers –  CIEN, GES, SPLK, PWRD, HPQ, NTAP, AZO, MDT, CSCO, A, MCP, WCRX, NVDA, PCLN, GMCR, GRPN, TSLA, EA, DVA, WFM, CTSH, DTV, LBTYA, AIG, ADP, CBOE, REGN, FB, BZH, EXPD, GM, MDC, STX, V, YELP, ICE, JRCC, VIAB, CMCSA, DDD, AVP, HLF, CERN, CVX, DHI, TWC, ANGI, AKAM, ALXN, ALTR, BIIB, COG, CLF, CROX, DOW, ESI, FFIV, HOG, LRCX, LVS, MO, PHM, RCL, SIAL, XLNX, BA, BRCM, GLW, HES, DAL, COH, DD, NFLX, ILMN, VECO, LCC, RF, ZION, TRV, LMT, CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, CMG, GOOG, KMB, STI, MSFT, BTU, PEP, UNP, VZ, MAT, AXP, JNJ, INTC, KO, C, APOL

EPS Losers – CPRT, COST, TSL, CRM, GME, SHLD, DISH, XRAY, ATVI, RAX, MNST, Z, LNKD, TPX, ZAGG, CTRX, GRMN, MRK, SWI, AMZN, BIDU, CRUS, DECK, EXPE, HSY, KLAC, MXIM, QCOM, PTEN, ABC, MMM, AMGN, T, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, GE, IBM, ISRG, MCD, MS, PM, UNH, SNDK, EBAY, BAC, USB, GS, LLTC


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed downDefensive posture.

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Setups
H Breakout:  GS, CTSH, ADBE, CSCO, SCSS, SINA, SOHU, YELP, AMZN, CMCSA, MSFT,

Diagonal Breakout:  CRM, NFLX, GLW, Z, JCP, AAPL, LVS, FB, BBRY, RAX, RCL, NVDA, ATI, AKAM, BRCM, GRMN, MYL, ORCL, QCOM, SWI,

Bull Flag:  XLNX, GRPN, VECO, STX, FSLR, SCTY, INTC, DDD, COST,

Potential Bullish Divergence: 

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag: 

At Support:  CNX, CLF, FAST, TLT

Moves
New Highs:  MU, WDC, MFRM, PWRD, CIEN, JDSU, JNPR, MNST,

Gap Up: 

Gap Down:  IRM

H&D Breakout: BIDU, CELG, MS, GME, ANGI, CMG, ESI, ALK, P, SOHU, TPX, UAL, YELP, ADBE, ADSK, AMGN, AMZN, BBBY, CMCSA, NTAP,NUAN, PCLN, ROST, SYMC, YHOO

Breakout Test:

Bounce:  SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA, FAS, GS, SBUX, CREE, F, NTES, GILD, GOOG, AMAT, WFM, ESRX, WYNN, MAT, MSFT, SPLK, SIRI, GRMN, TIF, P, TBT, STI, ZION, BAC, C, FAST, CRM, AAPL, GLW, SCSS, DTV,


MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag: GLD,


Support Break:  UNG, WLT,
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87 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: VRTX, CELG, CA, CTRX, LBTYA, BIDU, CHKP, AMAT, AMZN, SBUX

Lagging NDX stocks included:  EQIX, GOLD, QCOM, MXIM, FFIV, COST, SNDK, STX, CSCO, INTC

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: ESI, UAL, TSLA, FAS, ANF, CRM, SOHU, GS, GRPN, YELP, TBT, ICE, UCO, JNPR, CIEN, CREE, JDSU, SINA, LDK, GLW, CSTR, COH, ATI, RCL

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  CDE, FAZ, ANR, CLF


Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 42
MSFT, LIFE, INTC, WFM, WDC, AMAT, LMCA, SIAL, STX, CA, ESRX, PCAR, XLNX, CERN,  KLAC, LINTA, CHKP, ADI, PCLN, MU, NTAP, SPLS, BIDU, HSIC, SNDK, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, GOLD, DELL, MNST, CTSH, DLTR, DTV, EXPD, FOSL, MYL, NVDA, SBUX, YHOO, REGN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
BBBY, BIIB, GOOG, INTU, LBTYA, ORLY, SIRI, VIAB, VRTX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
COST

Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, ALTR, ORCL, NFLX, ADBE, FAST, LLTC, MCHP, NWSA, TXN, KRFT, ADP, AKAM, BMC, FFIV, PAYX, SRCL, WYNN, XRAY, DISCA, BRCM, CELG, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, CTXS, EBAY, GRMN, ROST, FISV, MAT, MDLZ, CHRW, CMCSA, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, VOD, EQIX, VRSK, ADSK, AMGN, EXPE, SYMC, MXIM, FB, CTRX, NUAN

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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