Wednesday, June 19, 2013

FOMC Meeting Tips Stocks Over as Fear of Tapering Sends Buyers Running and Light Volume Pushes Prices Lower...FB on Thursday...

All sectors moved lower on Wednesday… XLB, XLE and XLY were the strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.

Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…5.71 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.49 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 2.29…volume 205.7 million shares
VIX up .03 at 16.64
TNX up 1.29 at 23.11
TLT down 1.17 at 112.11...
XLF down .26 at 19.60…volume 61.2 million shares                 

AAPL down 8.77 at 423.00volume 11 million shares
FB up .10 at 24.31volume 31.7 million shares


Technical Commentary:
SPY – 1.38%, DIA – 1.31%, IWM – 1.23%, QQQ – 1.11%.

As expected volatility increased on Wednesday beginning with the FOMC announcement at 2 pm ET.  The SPY traded in a one dollar range until about 2:50 pm and then a relatively light 8.8 million share volume selloff sent the SPY $1.40 lower in about 10 minutes followed by an 80 cent rally.  During the last 30 minutes a 23 million share volume selloff sent the SPY down another $1.20.  The sharp drop on these volume levels appear to be buyers dropping bids.

Similar to May 22 indications that tapering of asset purchases later in the year might occur sent buyers scurrying and sellers were able to send the markets lower on relatively light volume.  Logical?  Rational?  Nonetheless, reality this afternoon. 

The Euro which was down 99 pips to close at 1.3295, collapsed more than 100 pips after the FOMC announcement.  TNX interest rates jumped and TLT bonds broke support.

ADBE +5.58% reported earnings after the close Tuesday and formed a black candle gap up.

FB up 10 cents is holding a press event on Thursday which some believe may be to announce a new video sharing app with the potential to generate significant revenue for the company.

GMCR +3.13% is a horizontal resistance breakout.   

GOOG gained 6 cents and formed a potential tombstone doji.  TSLA +1.25% closed at 104.68.

MU gave back Wednesday’s 22 cent gain after reporting positive earnings after the close.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  The intermediate term trend is up and the short-term trend is pull back under resistance neutral.  Adjust stops, trade to targets and take bearish trades according to your rules as the month long consolidation continues.


Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 

When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 

When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance

Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.


EPS Reaction Summary
EPS Gainers –  ADBE, ULTA, EA, DVA, WFM, CTSH, DTV, LBTYA, AIG, ADP, CBOE, REGN, FB, BZH, EXPD, GM, MDC, STX, V, YELP, ICE, JRCC, VIAB, CMCSA, DDD, AVP, HLF, CERN, CVX, DHI, TWC, ANGI, AKAM, ALXN, ALTR, BIIB, COG, CLF, CROX, DOW, ESI, FFIV, HOG, LRCX, LVS, MO, PHM, RCL, SIAL, XLNX, BA, BRCM, GLW, HES, DAL, COH, DD, NFLX, ILMN, VECO, LCC, RF, ZION, TRV, LMT, CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, CMG, GOOG, KMB, STI, MSFT, BTU, PEP, UNP, VZ, MAT, AXP, JNJ, INTC, KO, C, APOL

EPS Losers – CPRT, COST, TSL, CRM, GME, SHLD, DISH, XRAY, ATVI, RAX, MNST, Z, LNKD, TPX, ZAGG, CTRX, GRMN, MRK, SWI, AMZN, BIDU, CRUS, DECK, EXPE, HSY, KLAC, MXIM, QCOM, PTEN, ABC, MMM, AMGN, T, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, GE, IBM, ISRG, MCD, MS, PM, UNH, SNDK, EBAY, BAC, USB, GS, LLTC


The Market Forecast Green Line is below the Upper Zone and is pointed up. 

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Setups
H Breakout:  CMCSA, GOOG, INTC, MAT, MYL, NFLX, NVDA, PCLN, WFM, CMG, NFLX, PWRD, SOHU, TBT,

Diagonal Breakout:   AKAM, BRCM, COST, CTSH, EBAY, TXN, XLNX, BBRY, C, CLF, GLW, LVS, SWI, TPX, UAL, WLT,

Bull Flag:  BIDU, MNST, ESI, GME, GS, JNPR, XONE,

Potential Bullish Divergence:  

Gap Up:

Gap Down: 

Bear Flag: 

At Support:    



Moves
New Highs:  MU, GMCR, YELP,

Gap Up:  ADBE,

Gap Down:   

H&D Breakout:  ADSK, QCOM, VECO,

Breakout Test:

Bounce:     

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:  

Support Break: 

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10 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  ADBE, NVDA, NWSA, MU

Lagging NDX stocks included:  REGN, BIIB, GOLD, EQIX, MDLZ, VOD, CELG, SBAC, SPLS, GILD, ATVI, DTV, SNDK, KRFT

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: YELP, FAZ, GMCR, LDK

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  URE, BBRY, FAS, ANR, SINA, HLF, ESI, CHL, A, ICE, TSL, ANR, CDE, F, NTES, TPX


Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 38
MSFT, LIFE, INTC, WFM, WDC, AMAT, STX, CA, CERN, PCLN, MU, NTAP, SPLS, HSIC, SNDK, AVGO, CSCO, ISRG, AMZN, MNST, MYL, SBUX, BBBY, CTRX, DELL, EXPE, KLAC, MCHP, ORLY, LMCA, DLTR, ESRX, GOOG, PCAR, XLNX, ADI, NFLX, FOSL

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
ADBE, NVDA

Moving Below 30 DMA = 22
ADP, CERN, CHKP, CHRW, COST, DTV, EXPD, FISV, GRMN, LINTA, NUAN, ORCL, PAYX, ROST, SRCL, VOD, WYNN, YHOO, MDLZ, DISCA, VRSK, KRFT

Staying Below 30 DMA
BIDU, VRTX, GOLD, SIAL, TXN, BIIB, CTSH, INTU, SIRI, VIAB, LBTYA, REGN, AAPL, ALTR, ADBE, FAST, LLTC, NWSA, AKAM, BMC, FFIV, XRAY, BRCM, CELF, GILD, ALXN, ATVI, CTXS, EBAY, MAT, CMCSA, SHLD, SBAC, QCOM, EQIX, ADSK, AMGN, SYMC, MXIM, FB

Five Month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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