Tuesday, February 26, 2013

SPY Four-week Trend Neutral, Short-term Down as Euro Sinks....


All nine sectors moved lower on Monday with XLU, XLV and XLP the strongest sectors .   XLF was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners3.53 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday - strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 2.89  at 149.00...volume 245.8 million shares…
VIX up 4.82 at 18.99
TNX down -.72 at 18.95…
TLT up 2.30 cents at 119.33…
XLF
down 48 cents at 17.26…volume 71.5 million shares

AAPL down 8.01 at 442.80…volume 13.3 million shares…
FB up 14 cents at`27.27on volume of 34.6 million shares…


Technical Commentary:
Stocks reversed as the Euro fell after concerns over the outcome of Italian elections stoked fears that Italy’s austerity program could be threatened.    QQQ -1.21%, DIA -1.54%, SPY -1.90% and IWM -2.21% sold off reversing Friday’s bounce.

AAPL shares moved down -8.01 forming a potential triple bottom.  APPL, BIDU, AKAM, CRUS and RCL are the type of pattern where some traders look to sell premium strategies at this technical formation.  FB moved gained 14 cents bounced while continuing to form a potential MACD bullish divergence.

The Euro fell 131 pips and closed at 1.3061 on Monday.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position. Many stocks may have produced exit signals, break of support and bear flag entry signals since last Wednesday.  If positions were exited, begin to look for potential re-entry according to your rules.

The SPY has shifted to a neutral trend as XLB and XLY are negative, XLE, XLF, XLI and XLK are neutral with XLP, XLU and XLI positive.   Friday’s bull flag bounce pattern failed on Monday. 


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down below the upper reversal zone. 

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Setups
Breakout:  TXN, STZ, MCHP, ATVI, FIVE, TW, CLB, SHLD, FTNT

Diagonal Breakout: BBRY, PBI, ORLY, HES, GME

Bull Flag:  STRZA, NFLX, FAST, NTES, Z, LNKD, ZION, JPM, ICE, JDSU, MWV, TEX, CBG, BPOP, TSCO, MDRX, CBOE, PMCS, SPWR, AVX, CRR, AVP, CSTR, GES, IM, ANGI, CNW, MJN, PTEN, P,  AOL, GNC, ADM, KORS, XRX, FTI, VMI, AIZ,

Potential Bullish Divergence:  FB, CTSH, ORCL, BBRY, EQIX, VECO, STX, RCL, ACI, ANR, WHR

Gap Up:

Gap Down:

Bear Flag:  LVS, AMZN, TFM, CTL, RAX, CPA, ULTA

Break of Support:  HSP, CNX, OC, NBR, PPO, AVGO, ROST, WDC, JRCC, DNDN, MGM, A, QCOM, PAY,


Moves
Highlights: CTXS, NFLX, SINA, NTES, FSLR, TPX, BBRY, FB

Gap Up:  ZNGA, AMGN, HPQ, COG, AWAY

Gap Down:  CWH, DDS, INT, NDSN,

Breakout:  PM
 
Bounce:  PRGO, STZ

MACD Divergence Bounce:

Bear Flag:  AKAM, STI, SWKS,

Support Break:  FFIV, STX, CRM, SLB, WLT, BTU, GRMN, LIFE, DE, CCL, CLF, IPI

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10 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  AMGN, SPLS,, PRGO, GOLD, CTRX, FB, LBTYA, VMED

Lagging NDX stocks included:  FFIV, EXPE, STRZA, ADSK, AVGO, KLAC, STX, VIAB, ROST, CELG, EBAY, DLTR, AMAT, CERN, FOSL, SHLD

Leading stocks> +2% on Monday included: FAZ

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  ESI, FAS, MCP, ANR, SSYS, SINA, AKS, TSLA, CSTR, TSL, SWKS, GS, CRM, ATI, TBT, X, C, CRUS, ANF, BAC, GES, ICE, JNPR, GMCR


Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 38
VMED, ADI, LLTC, XLNX, DELL, NWSA, AMAT, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, STRZA, ADP, SYMC,GILD, HSIC, SPLS, ATVI, MYL, CERN, ISRG, GOOG, ORLY, BIIB, MAT, PAYX, PRGO, YHOO, ALTR, DLTR, CTRX, ESRX,
MNST, AMGN, DISCA, MU, SBAC, TXN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0                      
                                                                                                      

Moving Below 30 DMA = 15
ADBE, BRCM, CA, CELG, CMCSA, CTXS, INTU, KLAC, LINTA, MSFT, MXIM, NVDA, SHLD, SRCL, VIAB

Staying Below 30 DMA
ADSK, CSCO, EBAY, FFIV, NTAP, PCAR, PCLN, QCOM, XRAY, AMZN, AVGO, BBBY, CTSH, EQIX, FOSL, GRMN, LIFE, ORCL, ROST, SIAL, SIRI, VRSK, VRTX, WDC, COST, WYNN, EXPE, SBUX, STX, MDLZ, VOD, WFM, EXPD, LBTYA, DTV, NUAN, AKAM, GOLD, BMC, CHRW, BIDU, ALXN, FB, FISV, INTC, REGN, AAPL

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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