Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Shooting Star Wednesday...

DJIA - 52.81, -0.62% SP500 - 4.66, -0.51% NASDAQ Comp. - 6.70, -0.39% Russell 2000 - 3.91, -0.79% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,020 1,276 Declining 1,715 1,464 Oil $62.04 +$1.94 Gold $937.40 +$10.70 SOX 256.99 +0.66 VIX 28.80 +0.23 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +0.45%...XLV +0.39%...XLE +0.34% Weakest Sectors: XLF -2.66%...XLU -1.82%...XLY -1.08% Five of nine Sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Materials, Healthcare, Energy, Consumer Staples and Industrials were stronger than the SPX -0.51%. XLF was again the weakest sector. Financial stocks weaker than XLF: RF, ICE, STT, WFC, BK, ZION, JPM, GS, MET, AXP, MS, PRU, NTRS, PNC, ALL and ETF’s UYG and FAS. Leading tech stocks stronger than XLK -1.04% include: GLW, TXN, MA, BZ, QCOM, MSFT, ORCL, GOOG, INTC, AMT, ADBE and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLK Sideways: XLY, XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI Down Trending: XLU SPX Key resistance levels: 902 = Weekly R1 930 = horizontal 945 = 200 DMA Key support levels: 891 = 38.2% Fib level 879 = 50% Fib level, 30 DMA 866 = 61.8% Fib level Stocks traded to higher highs during the first hour of trading on Wednesday and then reversed to finish the day lower. The SPX rose to 924 within six points of horizontal resistance before reversing. The SPX hit 930 on May 8. Technicians should watch carefully going into Thursday as it is today’s could be a second top in a potential double top. Steel stocks SCHN, X, ATI, AKS and STLD moved higher on Wednesday but formed shooting stars for the most part.. Solar stocks FSLR, SPWRA, TSL and LDK all had strong gains on Wednesday. We alerted you to both of these groups last night also including charts last night and this morning. Since Wednesday is the high day it is also another Yellow Alert. Watch for the break of the low of the high day especially if you are a short term trader. Because the indices had bearish candle patterns in the area of horizontal resistance (potential double top), intermediate term traders would be wise to consider taking protective action if markets begin to break support.
Look at these charts... (click image to enlarge)
Index Commentary - Yellow Alert The DJIA formed a black shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level and below Tuesday’s low…closed above horizontal resistance at 8,405…three month chart target 10,340…volume well above average at 468 million shares…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The SPX formed a black shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level and below Tuesday’s low…3 month chart target of 1,075…closed above its 20, 30 and 50 DMA. The Nasdaq formed a dark cloud cover that was within a half a point of being a bearish engulfing pattern…closed above Tuesday’s low…3 month chart target of 2,065…closed above its 20, 30, 50 and 200 DMA. The RUT formed a black shooting star that traded above Monday’s S1 level and just above Tuesday’s low….3 month chart target 606…closed at its 20 DMA and above its 30 and 50 DMA. At the Open on Wednesday SPY – bearish engulfing KOL – black shooting star FAS – bearish engulfing URE – bearish engulfing USD – black shooting star STT – bearish engulfing ZION – black candle pullback to 20 DMA EBAY – black shooting star ADBE – black shooting star at 200 DMA WYNN – black spinning at 30 DMA SCHN –white shooting star STLD – white shooting star JNPR – black shooting star CTV – black spinning top near resistance OSG – black shooting star EL – black shooting star WHR – black shooting star RIMM – white spinning top Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA BIDU, CLB, ICE, DLB, VPRT, CTSH, BAP, CAM, GMCR, ATW, GR, SYNA, EBAY, TRLG, FSLR, HDB, PCP, RIMM, WCG, UYG, HLF, AMX, MHS, FAS, AFAM, K, RBN, ESRX, PCLN, VAR, PCR, PPD, HANS, SWN, FLS, TDG, NIHD, RCI, STRA, ACN, JOYG, MON, MUR, PSYS, CHL, DECK, MOS, DV, AXYS, BIIB, BYI, CPLA, AAPL, SPWRA, SYNA, WAB, X, ESI, USD Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 MCD, CBST, BDX Moving Below 30 DMA = 3 URE, NTLS, JOSB Staying Below 30 DMA AMED, PETS, GES, WRC, SNA, SNHY, WMT, AMZN, EZPW, GXDX, JW.A, JEC, PWR, DLTR, DECK, ORCL, ALGT, JCOM, NFLX, GME, GILD, GPRO, MYGN, SLGN, BKC, APEI, BLUD Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

3 comments:

Peggy said...

Thank you Dave for all you do and your continued commitment to this blog.
I follow it daily and I find it to be most insightful.
Peggy

Dave Johnson said...

Peggy,

You're welcome...there are still improvements that are coming...so stayed as it gets even better!

Dave

SH said...

I second what Peggy says! Thanks Dave. I struggle most, now, with my exits. I can let a stock go to my stop but I know that may not always be the most ideal exit. Anything you post in your blog or talk about on the Th AIT webex on this topic would be most helpful! I understand the short term exits just fine - break below the low of the high day - but most of my trades are intermediate term now so that doesn't really apply. I suppose it's just a break below the prior low or a moving average. But I've seen the area of the prior low tested/broken and the trend continue. I guess if/when I do exit, it's just important to have my reentry ready! Thanks again for all your mentoring.
Steve