Friday, January 17, 2014

Stocks Pause Heading into Three-day Weekend...MS, SLB, STI, SWKS Gap Higher After Earnings...

All nine sectors moved lower on Friday…XLU, XLV and XLE were the strongest sectors…while XLP was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.36 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.42 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, mixed
Wednesday – weakened, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led


SPY down .78 at 183.63 volume 107.8 million shares, average volume, bull flag
VIX down .09 at 12.44…
TNX down .16 at 28.27…
TLT up .44 at 105.48...
XLF down .07 at 21.93 volume 57.4 million shares, bull flag

AAPL down 13.58 at 540.67 volume 15.5 million shares
FB down .89 at 56.30…volume 40.9 million shares, ascending triangle


Technical Commentary: 
DIA +0.14%, IWM -0.35%, SPY -0.43%, QQQ -0.57%.

Markets are closed Monday, January 20 for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day…


Stocks were near unchanged after the first full week of earnings with SPY down 51 cents and IWM up 41 cents.  There were big earnings winners including MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC and WEN and earnings losers including GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX and FAST.

Broad index ETFs except DIA +0.23, pulled back on Friday.  IWM and QQQ paused after having broken out of short-term resistance while SPY is pulling back at resistance with all three ETFs essentially in a bull flag price pattern.

The weight of the technical evidence still favors the uptrend. Trade the trend in next week’s four day trading week and be mindful of when individual stocks are reporting earnings.  Earning releases increase over the next two weeks.

MS +1.40, +4.37%, STI +1.33, +3.50% and SLB +1.60, +1.81% had positive reactions after releasing earnings before the open on Friday and AXP +3.19, +3.63% gained after releasing earnings after the close on Thursday.


The intermediate-term trend is still up, while the short-term trend is neutral.

Trade with the trend, move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.06, 186.90
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74
IWM = 115.98, 116.70, 118.54

Q4 earnings season is underway.

Monday – holiday
Tuesday – AMD, BHI, CA, CREE, DAL, HAL, IBM, JNJ, RF, TXN, TRV, VZ, XLNX
Wednesday – ABT, ATI, COH, EBAY, FFIV, FCX, NFLX, SNDK, USB, URI, UTX, WDC
Thursday – ALK, ALTR, BAX, ETFC, ISRG, JCI, JNPR, KEY, KLAC, LMT, MXIM, MCD, MSFT, LUV, SBUX, UAL, UNP,
Friday – HON, KSU, KMB, PG, SWK, STT

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL


Negative Reactions – GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,


Reversal of Initial Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: ANGI, BBRY, CNX, GLD, LVS, SPWR, YELP, YOKU, DTV, GRMN,
Diagonal Breakout: DDD, DRYS, GRPN, MCP, RAX, SFUN, SOHU, TPX, TSL, YNDX, Z, ZION, AMZN, BIDU, FB, GMCR, TRIP, YHOO
Bull Flag: BAC, CSIQ, FAS, GS, LNKD, MFRM, NTES, SPY, SWI, VECO, VRSN, ADBE, AMZN, CMCSA, MU, 
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:  FSLR, GME,
At Support: ANR, C, CIEN, CLF, FIVE, SINA, TIF, WFM,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs:  A, BX, CRM, ESI, GLW, JNPR, LVS, SPLK, V, YELP, ESRX, GILD, NTAP, QCOM, STX, WYNN,
Gap Up: STI, SWKS,         
Gap Down: INTC,
H Breakout: TLT, V,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test: IWM,
Bounce: AAL, BBRY, GLD, TWTR,
MACD Divergence Bounce:  GOGO,
Bear Flag: SSYS,  
Support Break: NKE, TBT, X,  

______________________


39 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and one was unchanged.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ILMN, ISRG, EXPE, NTAP, WYNN, GOLD, FAST, NXPI, SRCL, VRTX

Lagging NDX stocks included: MU, INTC, AAPL, VIAB, ATVI, SPLS, EQIX, CTRX, BIDU, BBBY

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: ESI, SWKS, BBRY, V, STI, TWTR, AAL

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SINA, JCP, LNKD, XONE, DRYS, SPWR, X, Z, SSYS, TSL, YOKU, MCP, CSIQ, QIHU, CLF, SCTY, CREE, SCSS


Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 73
CTSH, WDC, GOOG, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, STX, DTV, BRCM, WYNN, FB, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, CA, CHKP, FFIV, PCAR, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, CSCO, SBAC, CHTR, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, TRIP, BIIB, CHRW, EXPD, ADP, ALTR, AMZN, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, INTU, MXIM, NVDA, QCOM, SRCL, VOD, TXN, REGN, TSLA, VIP, NXPI, CERN, GRMN, NTAP, PCLN, SYMC, CELG, GOLD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
FAST

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
AAPL, ADI, FISV, KLAC, VIAB, YHOO

Staying Below 30 DMA
LINTA, DISH, TSCO, BIDU, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, MSFT, COST, SBUX, LMCA


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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