All nine
sectors
moved lower on Friday…XLU, XLV and XLE were the strongest sectors…while
XLP was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened
as
decliners led advancers 1.36 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.42 to
1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened,
mixed
Wednesday – weakened,
advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY down .78 at 183.63 volume 107.8 million shares, average volume, bull flag
VIX down .09 at 12.44…
TNX down .16 at 28.27…
TLT up .44 at 105.48...
XLF down .07 at 21.93 volume 57.4
million shares, bull flag
AAPL down 13.58 at 540.67 volume 15.5 million shares
FB down .89 at 56.30…volume 40.9 million shares, ascending triangle
Technical
Commentary:
DIA +0.14%,
IWM -0.35%, SPY -0.43%,
QQQ -0.57%.
Markets are closed Monday,
January 20 for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day…
Stocks
were near unchanged after the first full week of earnings with SPY down 51 cents and IWM up
41 cents. There were big
earnings winners including MS, SLB, STI, AXP,
SWKS, BAC, LLTC and WEN and earnings losers
including GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX and FAST.
Broad
index ETFs except DIA +0.23, pulled
back on Friday. IWM and QQQ
paused after having broken out of short-term resistance while SPY is
pulling back at resistance with all three ETFs essentially in a bull flag price
pattern.
The weight of the technical evidence
still favors the uptrend. Trade the trend in next week’s four day trading week and be mindful
of when individual stocks are reporting earnings. Earning releases increase over the next two
weeks.
MS +1.40,
+4.37%, STI +1.33, +3.50% and SLB +1.60, +1.81% had positive reactions after releasing earnings
before the open on Friday and AXP +3.19, +3.63% gained after releasing earnings after the close
on Thursday.
The intermediate-term trend is still
up, while the short-term trend is neutral.
Trade with the trend, move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.06, 186.90…
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74…
IWM = 115.98, 116.70, 118.54…
Q4 earnings season is underway.
Monday – holiday
Tuesday – AMD, BHI, CA,
CREE, DAL, HAL, IBM, JNJ, RF, TXN, TRV, VZ, XLNX
Wednesday – ABT, ATI,
COH, EBAY, FFIV, FCX, NFLX, SNDK, USB, URI, UTX, WDC
Thursday – ALK, ALTR,
BAX, ETFC, ISRG, JCI, JNPR, KEY, KLAC, LMT, MXIM, MCD, MSFT, LUV, SBUX, UAL, UNP,
Friday – HON, KSU, KMB,
PG, SWK, STT
Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – MS,
SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL
Negative Reactions – GE,
COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: ANGI,
BBRY, CNX, GLD, LVS, SPWR, YELP, YOKU, DTV, GRMN,
Diagonal Breakout: DDD, DRYS, GRPN, MCP, RAX, SFUN, SOHU, TPX,
TSL, YNDX, Z, ZION, AMZN, BIDU, FB, GMCR, TRIP, YHOO
Bull Flag: BAC, CSIQ, FAS, GS, LNKD, MFRM, NTES, SPY, SWI,
VECO, VRSN, ADBE, AMZN, CMCSA, MU,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: FSLR,
GME,
At Support: ANR, C,
CIEN, CLF, FIVE, SINA, TIF, WFM,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: A, BX, CRM, ESI, GLW, JNPR, LVS, SPLK, V,
YELP, ESRX, GILD, NTAP, QCOM, STX, WYNN,
Gap Up: STI, SWKS,
Gap Down: INTC,
H Breakout: TLT, V,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test: IWM,
Bounce: AAL, BBRY, GLD, TWTR,
MACD Divergence
Bounce: GOGO,
Bear Flag: SSYS,
Support Break: NKE, TBT, X,
______________________
39 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Friday and one
was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ILMN, ISRG, EXPE,
NTAP, WYNN, GOLD, FAST, NXPI, SRCL, VRTX
Lagging NDX stocks included: MU, INTC, AAPL,
VIAB, ATVI, SPLS, EQIX, CTRX, BIDU, BBBY
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: ESI, SWKS, BBRY, V, STI, TWTR, AAL
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: SINA, JCP, LNKD, XONE, DRYS, SPWR, X,
Z, SSYS, TSL, YOKU, MCP, CSIQ, QIHU, CLF, SCTY, CREE, SCSS
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 73
CTSH, WDC,
GOOG, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, STX,
DTV, BRCM, WYNN, FB, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, CA, CHKP, FFIV, PCAR,
SNDK, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, CSCO, SBAC, CHTR, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG,
MU, MYL, TRIP, BIIB, CHRW, EXPD, ADP, ALTR, AMZN, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, INTU, MXIM,
NVDA, QCOM, SRCL, VOD, TXN, REGN, TSLA, VIP, NXPI, CERN, GRMN, NTAP, PCLN, SYMC,
CELG, GOLD
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
FAST
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
AAPL, ADI, FISV, KLAC,
VIAB, YHOO
Staying Below 30 DMA
LINTA, DISH, TSCO, BIDU, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT,
DISCA, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, MSFT, COST, SBUX, LMCA
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Neutral
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