All nine
sectors
moved lower on Thursday…however XLK, XLU and XLV were the strongest sectors…while XLF was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened
as
decliners led advancers 2.03 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.24
to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened
slightly, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – holiday
Friday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY down 1.51 at 182.79 volume 132.2 million shares, above average volume
VIX up .93 at 13.77…
TNX down .87 at 27.73…
TLT up 1.49 at 106.79...
XLF down .36 at 21.60 volume 52.5
million shares, above average volume
AAPL up 4.67 at 556.18 volume 14.4 million shares
FB down .88 at 56.63…volume 47.9 million shares
Technical Commentary:
DIA – 1.08%,
SPY – 0.82%, IWM –
0.67%, QQQ – 0.34%.
Futures opened lower on Thursday
following weak manufacturing data from China overnight. The DIA which broke short-term support on Thursday sold
off on volume 37% above average. SPY sold off on volume 29% above
average and closed above short-term support. IWM volume was only 8% above average
while QQQ was 10% above average volume.
IWM and QQQ are currently in a one-day bull
flag pattern after hitting new highs on Wednesday. SPY pulled back from resistance in its four
week trading range in an intermediate and long-term uptrend. The DIA the weakest of the broad ETF
indexes in part due to poor earnings reactions from TRV, JNJ, VZ and IBM.
NFLX +54.99,
+16.48% hit a new all-time high after reporting earnings Wednesday after the close. UNP +5.62,
+3.34% gapped higher and also hit
an all-time high after reporting on Wednesday after the close.
FB -0.88,
-1.53%,
released
research using Google search data to predict engagement trends (apparently the
same approach Princeton used on FB) using the scientific principle “correlation
equals causation,” and their “research unequivocally demonstrated that Princeton may be in danger of disappearing entirely.” Click here to read.
In after-hours trading on Thursday JNPR +0.94, +3.61%, MSFT
+1.26, ALTR +1.07, +3.25%, +3.51%,
SBUX +0.81, +1.10%, KLAC +0.46,
+0.72% all rose after reporting earnings after the
close. ISRG -20.00,
-4.56% fell after reporting
earnings.
Bonds TLT
+1.42% and
gold GLD +2.18% continued to rise
along with the Euro +148 pips saw its
largest gain in more than three months.
Even though markets sold off (price
fluctuation) on Thursday the IWM, QQQ and SPY are above short-term support and the
weight of the technical evidence still favors the uptrend. Trade the trend
in this week’s holiday shortened trading week and be mindful of when individual
stocks are reporting earnings. Earning
releases increase over the next two weeks.
The intermediate-term trend is still
up, while the short-term trend is neutral.
Trade with the trend, move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.76, 188.04…
QQQ = 88.74, 89.38, 90.25…
IWM = 116.70, 118.54…
Q4 earnings season is underway.
Monday – holiday
Tuesday – AMD, BHI, CA,
CREE, DAL, HAL, IBM, JNJ, NUAN, RF, TXN, TRV, VZ, XLNX
Wednesday – ABT, ATI,
COH, EBAY, FFIV, FCX, NFLX, SNDK, USB, URI, UTX, WDC
Thursday – ALK, ALTR,
BAX, ETFC, ISRG, JCI, JNPR, KEY, KLAC, LMT, MXIM, MCD, MSFT, LUV, SBUX, UAL,
UNP,
Friday – HON, KSU, KMB,
PG, SWK, STT
Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – NFLX,
FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB,
STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL
Negative Reactions – KEY,
JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC,
UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: MU,
Diagonal Breakout: AAPL,
Bull Flag: ADSK, CMCSA, STX, WDC, WYNN, BAC, ESI, MS, P,
V, YELP, M,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up: ALTR,
JNPR, MSFT, KLAC, SBUX,
Gap Down: ISRG,
Bear Flag:
At Support: XONE, DNKN,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: NTAP,
Gap Up: FFIV, NFLX, UNP,
Gap Down: BIDU, FB, A, CRM, LVS, NKE, SFUN, SPY, GS, JPM,
H Breakout: AKAM,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test:
Bounce: FIVE,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: COST, NTES, YNDX, CMG, HLF,
______________________
20 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Thursday and
three were unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NFLX, FFIV, GOLD,
EQIX, TSLA, CTRX, SBAC
Lagging NDX stocks included: BIDU, CTXS, DISH,
DTV, ALXN, CTSH, YHOO, CHRW
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday
included: ATI, GLD
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: TSL, SFUN, CREE, SINA, FAS, GOGO, YOKU,
YOKU, YNDX, BX, NTES
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 65
CTSH, WDC,
GOOG, ILMN, LLTC, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MNST, SIAL, CMCSA, GMCR, STX, DTV, BRCM,
WYNN, FB, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, CA, CHKP, FFIV, PCAR, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX,
CTRX, AMAT, CSCO, SBAC, CHTR, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, CHRW,
EXPD, ALTR, AMZN, EBAY, GILD, MXIM, NVDA, QCOM, SRCL, VOD, TXN, REGN, TSLA,
NXPI, CERN, NTAP, PCLN, SYMC, CELG, GOLD, FAST, FISV, KLAC
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
AAPL, NFLX, VIP
Moving Below 30 DMA =8
ADP, BIDU, CTXS, GRMN,
ADI, KRFT, CHTR, DISH
Staying Below 30 DMA
EXPE, INTC, INTU, MDLZ, LBTYA, TRIP, YHOO, VIAB, LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX,
ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, MSFT, COST, SBUX,
LMCA
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Up – IWM, QQQ, Neutral -
SPY
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