IWM Makes New High Close as Stocks Continue to Inch Higher on Friday...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLU, XLV and XLB were the strongest sectors…while XLF was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 2.56 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led

Thursday - mixed

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led

Monday – weakened, decliners led

SPY up .50 at 183.64 volume 102 million shares

VIX down .75 at 12.14…a five-month low

TNX down 1.03 at 28.60…

TLT up 1.23 at 104.41...

XLF down .04 at 22.03 volume 36.4 million shares, average volume

AAPL down 3.58 at 532.94 volume 10.9 million shares, below average volumef

FB up .72 at 57.94…volume 42.5 million shares, below average volume

Technical Commentary: 

IWM + 0.55%, QQQ +0.32%, SPY + 0.27%, DIA – 0.01%.

The SPY and IWM finished with their highest close of 2014 on Friday.  IWM closed above its Dec 31 high for a new all-time high close while the SPY closed 55 cents below its all-time high close on Dec 31.  The VIX confirmed the higher close its lowest close since Aug 5.

With a Jobs Report of 74,000 new jobs, below estimate of 197,000 new jobs interest rates crumbled with the TNX closing at 2.86% and bonds jumped.  Financial stocks XLF was the only sector not to rise.  Generally financial companies benefit from rising rates as the spread between cost of money and lending rates typically expand leading to higher profits.

 

FDO +2.51, +3.86% which gapped lower Thursday morning after earnings and rallied while still closing lower after earnings, totally reversed Thursday’s negative reaction and closed above Wednesday’s pre-earnings close.

The overall trend is still up, while the short-term trend is up.

Trade with the trend, move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:

SPY = 184.69, 186.06, 186.90…

QQQ = 87.79, 88.74…

IWM = 115.98, 116.70, 118.54…

Q4 earnings season is underway.

Monday – AAL, AMGN, SCHW, WEN

Tuesday – JPM, LLTC, WFC

Wednesday – BAC, CSX, FAST

Thursday – AXP, COF, C, GS, INTC, SWKS, UNH

Friday – GE, MS, SLB, STI

Q4 Earnings Reactions

Positive Reactions – MON, MU, APOL

Negative Reactions – AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FDO

The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above 80.

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Setups 

H Breakout: ANGI, CMG, GLD, ZION, ADBE, AVGO, CERN, COST, CTSH, FB, GILD, QCOM, ROST,

Diagonal Breakout: CRM, DDD, P, RAX, SSYS, TSLA, XONE, Z, CELG, CTXS, DISH, PCLN, SBUX,  

Bull Flag: ATI, CNX, GRPN, GS, LVS, MFRM, NTES, SCTY, SINA, SOHU, SPLK, AMZN, BIDU, EXPE, GOOG, MU, SNDK, STX, TXN, VIAB, WDC, YHOO

Potential Bullish Divergence:   

Gap Up:

Gap Down:

Bear Flag: 

At Support: ANR, CLF, FSLR, SCSS, TIF, TPX, UNG, WLT, AAPL, GRMN,

C- Pattern:

Moves

New Highs: CREE, FAS, GLW, JNPR, STI, SWI, UAL, VECO, YELP, DAL, ADSK, ALXN, CMCSA, DTV, ESRX, GMCR, ILMN, WYNN

Gap Up:          

Gap Down: AA       

H Breakout: ALK, BBRY, ESI, F, RCL, TLT, AKAM, BIIB,

Diagonal Breakout: GLD,

Breakout Test: 

Bounce: SPY, IWM, KLAC, MNST, TRIP,

MACD Divergence Bounce: MSFT,

Bear Flag: 

Support Break:  FIVE, JCP, TBT, NFLX,

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60 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Friday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: ISRG, GOLD, MNST, BIIB, REGN, VRTX, FAST, BIDU, DTV, CHRW, MU

Lagging NDX stocks included: SIRI, WFM, BRCM, NFLX, LMCA, TSLA, HSIC, SPLS, MXIM, DLTR

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: ANF, YELP, Z, JNPR, RCL, UAL, TSL, CDE, NTES, MCP, URE, P, SWI

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FIVE, TBT, CIEN, ANGI, HUM

Stocks to Watch on Monday

Holding Above 30 DMA= 70

CTSH, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, DISH, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BIDU, BRCM,  WYNN, FB, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, TSLA, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, VIAB, CA, CHKP, FFIV, LINTA, PCAR, TSCO, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX, ADP, ATVI, CTXS, PAYX, CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, NVDA, CSCO, SYMC, SBAC, CHTR, DLTR, ROST, HSIC, MXIM, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, NTAP, QCOM, SRCL, ADI, TRIP, BIIB, CELG, TXN, GILD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

CHRW, EXPD, FAST, KLAC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

DLTR, MXIM, NTAP, SRCL

Staying Below 30 DMA

BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, VIP, NXPI, ALTR, EBAY, MAT, DISCA, AAPL, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, PCLN, GRMN, MSFT, CERN, COST, SBUX, LMCA, REGN, GOLD

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up