Wednesday, January 15, 2014

IWM All-time High...QQQ New High Close...AAPL Jumps...BAC EPS Reaction Lifts Financials...Oil Rises...Solar Still Hot...

Six of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLK, XLF and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLE was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.86 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.84 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday - mixed


SPY up .99 at 184.66 volume 91.5 million shares
VIX down .01 at 12.27…
TNX up .15 at 28.84…
TLT down .11 at 104.34...
XLF up .27 at 22.15 volume 61.5 million shares, above average volume

AAPL up 10.97 at 557.36 volume 13.8 million shares, above average volume
FB down .14 at 57.60…volume 33.6 million shares, below average volume


Technical Commentary: 
QQQ + 0.82%, IWM + 0.75%, DIA + 0.69%, SPY + 0.54%.

IWM and QQQ make new high close while SPY closes within 3 cents of all-time high.  BAC helped lift financial stocks which added momentum to the broad market.

Oil prices rose USO +0.73, +2.21% on Wednesday and airline stocks DAL -0.51, -1.59%, ALK -0.65, -0.82%, UAL -0.25, -0.53% pulled back.

Social media stocks were led by TWTR +5.77%, P +2.70%, ANGI +1.66%, and Z +1.19%.   Solar stocks still had sizzle with CSIQ +5.80%, SCTY +4.50%, TSL +2.72%, AEIS +2.61%, FSLR +1.84%, YGE +1.74%, SUNE +0.97%.

JPM +1.75, +3.03% and WFC +0.81, +1.78% which had neutral reactions after reporting earnings on Tuesday bounced along with many financial stocks after BAC +0.28, +2.27% gapped up after reporting before the open on Wednesday. 

LLTC +0.95, +2.10% which gained +0.36, +0.80% in after-hours on Tuesday extended gains from its positive earnings report.

CREE +0.91, +1.44% gained for the second day after selling off Monday following an analyst downgrade.  As often occurs, the downgrade was a net one day negative impact.


The intermediate-term trend is still up, while the short-term trend is neutral.

Trade with the trend, move your protective stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.06, 186.90
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74
IWM = 115.98, 116.70, 118.54

Q4 earnings season is underway.

Monday – WEN
Tuesday – JPM, LLTC, WFC
Wednesday – BAC, CSX, FAST
Thursday – AXP, COF, C, GS, INTC, SWKS, UNH
Friday – GE, MS, SLB, STI

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL



Negative Reactions – FAST, AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FDO, AA,


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above 80.

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: ESI, F, FAS, LNKD, MFRM, QIHU, SCTY, YOKU, FB, GILD, GOOG, GRMN, YHOO
Diagonal Breakout:
Bull Flag: AAL, ANGI, BBRY, BX, CMG, DDD, GLD, NTES, SINA, SOHU, SPWR, AMZN, BRCM, DISH, GMCR, MNST, MU, SNDK, TRIP,
Potential Bullish Divergence: GOGO, NKE,
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: 
At Support: ANR, CLF,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: IWM, QQQ, ADSK, AVGO, A, ATI, CRM, CSIQ, GLW, JNPR, P, RCL, STI, SWI, SWKS, VRSN, CMCSA, CTSH, DTV, ESRX, FFIV, STX, WDC, WYNN,
Gap Up:  BAC,        
Gap Down:  XONE, FAST,    
H Breakout: IWM, QQQ, CRM, CSIQ, ADBE, AKAM, CMCSA, NTAP, PCLN, TSLA, TXN,
Diagonal Breakout: F,
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: SPY, ATI, C, CNX, CREE, DRYS, FAS, GS, IBM, LVS, MCP, MFRM, RAX, SCTY, SFUN, TSL, TWTR, V, VECO, Z, ZION, AAPL, DTV, QCOM,
MACD Divergence Bounce:  FSLR, MSFT,
Bear Flag: 
Support Break

______________________


69 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday and one was unchanged.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NTAP, CTXS, AKAM, SYMC, FFIV, AVGO, XLNX, CHRW, MSFT, CMCSA

Lagging NDX stocks included: FAST, REGN, NFLX, ISRG, MYL, GMCR, MU, BIDU, CELG, CHTR

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: MFRM, DRYS, MCP, CSIQ, TWTR, RAX, CNX, SCTY, WLT, CRM, SWI, FAS, SSYS, QIHU, BBRY, ANR, TSL, VECO, P, BAC, ATI

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: XONE, GRPN

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 72
CTSH, FISV, WDC, GOOG, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, YHOO, MNST, DISH, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, STX, DTV, BRCM, WYNN, FB, INTC, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, VIAB, CA, PCAR, CHKP, FFIV, XLNX, VRTX, SNDK, CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, CSCO, SBAC, CHTR, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MYL, MU, TRIP, BIIB, CHRW, EXPD, ADI, ADP, ALTR, AMZN, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, INTU, KLAC, MXIM, NVDA, NXPI, QCOM, REGN, SRCL, TSLA, TXN, VIP, VOD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8
AAPL, CERN, GRMN, LINTA, NTAP, PCLN, SYMC, TSCO

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
BIDU, CELG, FAST

Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, MSFT, COST, SBUX, LMCA, GOLD


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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