Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Stocks Mega-Bounce Following Retail Sales Report...Techs Gain After INTC Upgrade...Social Media Gains...Solar Stocks Sizzle, Sizzle, Sizzle...

All nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday…XLK, XLB and XLE were the strongest sectors…while XLU was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 2.42 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.84to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday - mixed
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led


SPY up 1.98 at 183.67 volume 104.5 million shares
VIX down 1.00 at 12.28…
TNX up .42 at 28.69…
TLT down .48 at 104.45...
XLF up .18 at 21.88 volume 31.3 million shares

AAPL up 10.66 at 546.39 volume 11.8 million shares
FB up 1.83 at 57.74…volume 37.4 million shares, below average volume


Technical Commentary: 
DIA + 0.75%, SPY + 1.09%, IWM + 1.23%, QQQ + 1.91%.

The broad market indexes that were poised to break short-term support rocketed off support after retail sales growth of 0.2% in December were reported following 0.4% growth in November.  Each of the four indexes formed a large white candle which is a lower probability occurrence and indicates that institutions are still net equity buyers and have a positive macro-economic outlook.  Bonds sold off, TNX interest rates rose and many financial moved higher.

JPM raised its rating to overweight on INTC +1.01, +3.96% based on a stabilizing PC market.  This lifted other chip stocks SOX +11.94, +2.26% and tech stocks in general.  AVGO, WDC, FB, NVDA, STX, ADBE, YHOO, FFIV, TXN, KLAC, AKAM, BRCM, GGO, MSFT, EQIX, CTXS, ADSK, and AAPL all gained more than 2% on Tuesday.

Social media stocks YELP, P, GRPN, YOKU, FB, YNDX, SINA, Z, NTES moved higher but the hot and sizzling group once again was solar stocks with CSIQ +10.87%, JKS +9.38%, TSL +6.59%, YGE +5.67%, TAN +5.30% SCTY +4.85%, AEIS +4.75%, SUNE +4.72% GTAT +4.58% and SPWR +4.24% scoring big gains.

JPM +0.04, +0.07% and WFC +0.03, +0.07% as expected by Chart Signals had neutral reactions after reporting earnings before the open.  LLTC +0.36, +0.80% in after-hours after a positive earnings report.

GME -9.01, -19.88% lowered its quarterly guidance to $1.85 - $1.95 a share, from $1.97 - $2.14 a share.

CREE +2.19, +3.59% gained after selling off Monday following an analyst downgrade.  As often occurs, the downgrade was a net one day negative impact.


The intermediate-term trend is still up, while the short-term trend is neutral.

Trade with the trend, move your protective stops.  If positions were stopped out on Monday you saw potential re-entry on Tuesday. Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.06, 186.90
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74
IWM = 115.98, 116.70, 118.54

Q4 earnings season is underway.

Monday – WEN
Tuesday – JPM, LLTC, WFC
Wednesday – BAC, CSX, FAST
Thursday – AXP, COF, C, GS, INTC, SWKS, UNH
Friday – GE, MS, SLB, STI

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – WEN, MON, MU, STZ, APOL



Negative Reactions – AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,

Reversal of Initial Reaction – FDO


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above 80.

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: CTSH, FAST, GILD, CRM, CSIQ, QIHU, IWM, V, VRSN, YELP,
Diagonal Breakout: GRMN, KLAC, F, SLB, GRPN, KKD, RAX, SPLK, SPY, TIF, TPX, TWTR, YNDX,   
Bull Flag: AAL, ANGI, ATI, BBRY, BX, CMG, DDD, DECK, DRYS, FAS, GS, HLF, IBM, LVS, MCP, NTES, SCTY, SFUN, SINA, SOHU, SPWR, TSL, VECO, XONE, Z, ZION, GLD, JKS, JASO,
Potential Bullish Divergence: FSLR, GOGO, NKE,
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: 
At Support: DLTR, ANR, MFRM,
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: ADSK, AVGO, MYL, A, ALK, CRM, DAL, GLW, JNPR, P, RCL, SMH, SWI, SWKS, UAL,
Gap Up:         
Gap Down: SSYS, GME,        
H Breakout: ADBE, REGN, TSLA, ESI, MOS, SWI, SWK, VMW, SMH,  
Diagonal Breakout: UNG, QQQ,  
Breakout Test: 
Bounce: AAPL, NVDA, PCLN, TSLA, TXN, VOD, WFM, XLNX, CRUS, FCX, X, YOKU,
MACD Divergence Bounce: FIVE,
Bear Flag: 
Support Break

______________________


88 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday and one was unchanged.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: REGN, ISRG, GOOG, TSLA, PCLN, BIIB, AAPL, ILMN, ALXN, AMZN, WYNN

Lagging NDX stocks included: BBBY, GOLD

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included: CSIQ, YELP, TSL, ESI, FIVE, P, SCTY, UAL, X, SPWR, GRPN, QIHU, YOKU, CREE, DAL, SWI, JCP, KKD, YNDX, GLW, CLF, SWK, ALK, FAS, FSLR, SPLK, SOHU, CRM, SINA, Z, BAC

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GME, SSYS, XONE

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 54
CTSH, FISV, WDC, GOOG, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, YHOO, MNST, DISH, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, STX, DTV, BRCM, WYNN, FB, INTC, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, VIAB, CA, PCAR, CHKP, FFIV, XLNX, VRTX, SNDK, CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, CSCO, SBAC, CHTR, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MYL, MU, TRIP, BIIB, CHRW, EXPD, FAST

Moving Above 30 DMA = 21
ADI, ADP, ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, CELG, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, INTU, KLAC, MXIM, NVDA, NXPI, QCOM, REGN, SRCL, TSLA, TXN, VIP, VOD

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
ATVI

Staying Below 30 DMA
LINTA, PAYX, SYMC, ROST, TSCO, NTAP, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, AAPL,WFM, VRSK, NFLX, PCLN, GRMN, MSFT, CERN, COST, SBUX, LMCA, GOLD


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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