Thursday, January 9, 2014

Broad Indexes Continue in Holding Pattern...Jobs Report Friday...AA Lower in After-hours Trading...

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLV, XLU and XLP were the strongest sectors…while XLK was the weakest sector. 

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.13 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.06 to 1 on the NASDAQ where decliners led advancers.

Thursday - mixed
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY up .12 at 183.64 volume 90.6 million shares
VIX up .02 at 12.89…
TNX down .30 at 29.63…
TLT up .60 at 103.18...
XLF up .08 at 22.07 volume 29.2 million shares, below average volume

AAPL down 6.94 at 536.52 volume 9.8 million shares
FB down 1.01 at 57.22…volume 92.3 million shares, above average volume


Technical Commentary: 
QQQ – 0.33%, DIA – 0.10%, IWM + 0.03%, SPY + 0.07%.

Rotational buying and selling kept the broad indexes in a short-term neutral range for the sixth trading day of 2014.  Five sectors were higher and four were lower.  Advancers and decliners were near even on Thursday. Stocks like ANGI, UAL, AAL, VECO, YNDX, DAL, RCL, BBRY, ALK, STI, SCTY and STI were higher while QIHU, CLF, TSL, MFRM, SINA, WLT, X, MCP, CSIQ, DRYS, UNG ANR, TWTR, SCSS, SOHU and RAX were lower.  The VIX confirmed the balanced market.

Markets seemed balanced waiting the Jobs Report Friday morning and the start of earnings season.  After the close AA -.047, -4.40% fell in after-hours trading after reporting earnings that missed estimates.  FDO -1.37, -2.07% which reported before the open, opened almost $4 lower but rallied to close just over a dollar lower.

The overall trend is still up, while the short-term trend is neutral.

Trade with the trend, move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

Short-term up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.06, 186.90
QQQ = 87.79, 88.74
IWM = 115.98, 116.70, 118.54

Q4 earnings season unofficially starts next Thursday, January 9 with the AA earnings release after the close.

Tuesday – APOL, MU
Wednesday – BBBY, MON, SCHN
Thursday – AA, FDO,

Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – MON, MU, APOL



Negative Reactions – AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,



The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up.

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: AKAM, AMZN, BRCM, CTSH, QCOM, SYMC, ANGI, CMG, RCL, SPY, SSYS,
Diagonal Breakout: ADBE, CELG, TSLA,  
Bull Flag: INTC, GS, MCP, SFUN, SPLK,
Potential Bullish Divergence:   
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: 
At Support: ANR, WLT,  
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: ADSK, DTV, ESRX, C,
Gap Up: AAL, ALK, DAL, STI, UAL,          
Gap Down: UNG,       
H Breakout: AMGN, MYL, ZION
Diagonal Breakout: LNDK,  
Breakout Test: 
Bounce:  COST, FAST,
MACD Divergence Bounce: 
Bear Flag: 
Support Break: MFRM,  

______________________


40 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: COST, AMGN, AKAM, CTRX, ESRX, DTV, ADSK, ISRG, FAST, MDLZ

Lagging NDX stocks included: BBBY, NVDA, BIDU, GOLD, SPLS, STX, MU, FOXA, DISH, TSLA

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: ANGI, UAL AAL, VECO, YNDX, DAL, JCP, LNKD, RCL, BBRY

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: QIHU, CLF, TSL, MFRM, SINA, WLT, X, MCP, CSIQ, DRYS

Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 72
CTSH, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, ILMN, LLTC, EXPE, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, DISH, SIAL, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BIDU, BRCM,  WYNN, FB, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, TSLA, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, VIAB, CA, CHKP, FFIV, LINTA, PCAR, TSCO, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX, ADP, ATVI, CTXS, PAYX, CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, NVDA, CSCO, SYMC, SBAC, CHTR, DLTR, ROST, HSIC, MXIM, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, NTAP, QCOM, SRCL, ADI, TRIP, BIIB, CELG, TXN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
GILD

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, VIP, NXPI

Staying Below 30 DMA
ALTR, EBAY, MAT, DISCA, KLAC, AAPL, CHRW, EXPD, WFM, FAST, VRSK, NFLX, PCLN, GRMN, MSFT, CERN, COST, SBUX, LMCA, REGN, GOLD

Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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