Four
of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLB, XLU and XLF were the strongest sectors…while
XLI was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…1.65 to 1 on
the NYSE and 1.37 to 1 on
the NASDAQ.
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened
slightly, decliners led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
Friday – weakened, advancers
led
Wednesday – unchanged, advancers
led
SPY down .02 at 179.73volume 122.9 million shares
VIX up .15 at 14.70…
TNX up .66 at 28.41…
TLT down .99 at 102.72...
XLF up .05 at 21.30 volume
43.7 million shares
AAPL down 1.32 at 565.00 volume 13.4 million shares
FB up 1.89 at 48.62…volume 60.7 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
QQQ +
0.09%, SPY – 0.01%, DIA – 0.14%, IWM – 0.27%.
Stocks
opened lower after the ADP employment report indicated about 60,000 more jobs
created than forecasted. This added to
the taper talk that started on Tuesday and led to the lower open. Indexes then rallied into positive territory
before falling and rising two more time before the close.
By the end
of the day SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM had each formed another spinning top in
their bull flag price pattern with the SPY and QQQ forming outside days
and DIA and IWM forming a new low day.
Watch for a potential bull flag bounce entry on Thursday.
The VIX
closed at 14.70 up .15 after a 1.49
volatility range following the volatility of SPX trading on Wednesday.
FB +1.89,
+4.04% made a
horizontal breakout after a MACD bullish divergence and closed above its 30
DMA. FB lost 74 cents in
after-hours on 2.2 million shares after S&P stated that FB would not
be added to the SP 500.
Solar
stocks FSLR, TSL, CSIQ and SPWR bounced after multi-week pullbacks.
Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over
again expecting different results.”
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
New short term chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…Friday’s
high 181.75
QQQ = 85.14, 85.77…touched
on Friday
IWM = 114.39, 116.10…Friday’s
high over 114
Short-term SPY posture is
down in bull flag pattern.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,783, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.11
IWM = 111.62, 110.88
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, MRVL, GMCR,
JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP,
PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI,
SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR,
SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL,
PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI,
EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS,
GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE,
BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY,
CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP,
AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW,
ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS,
VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP,
EW, MRK, RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL,
ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY,
CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS,
UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
The Market Forecast Green Line is above
80.
____________________
Setups
H
Breakout: AKAM, FB, GOOG,
Diagonal Breakout: FFIV,
Bull Flag: AMZN, CMCSA, COST, DTV, GILD, MYL, NFLX, QCOM, TXN, ALK,
BX, FAS, RCL, SPY, UAL, VRSN,
Potential Bullish Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: SBUX,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: MSFT, WDC, YHOO, LVS,
Gap Up: WDC, TBT,
Gap Down: SHLD, TLT,
H Breakout: ADSK, WYNN, LVS,
Diagonal Breakout: FB, CRM, X,
Breakout Test:
Bounce: ESRX, MNST, A, CIEN, CRM, GLD, P, SINA,
MACD Divergence Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: AMAT, ROST,
______________________
40 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Wednesday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NUAN, YHOO, FB,
CTXS, WYNN, GOLD, WDC, GMCR, MNST,MSFT, EQIX, NVDA
Lagging NDX stocks included: SHLD, TSLA, AMAT,
KLAC, ORLY, VIP, NFLX, CERN, LMCA, EBAY, DISCA
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday
included: CIEN, YOKU, TWTR, YELP, P, LVS, SINA, KKD, TSL, SPWR, JNPR
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MFRM, JCP, VECO, RAX, ANR, BBRY, MCP,
LCC
Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 49
CTSH, VOD,
ADBE, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, WDC, CHKP, GOOG, ADP,
AMZN, MAT, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, GILD,
MYL, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, NTAP, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, CTXS, LBTYA,
GMCR, DTV, STX, NVDA, BIDU, VRTX, BRCM
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
AKAM, ATVI, FB, FFIV, VRSK, WYNN
Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADI, AVGO, BBBY, CERN, EBAY, GRMN,
KLAC, LMCA, SBUX, TSLA
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHTR,
DISCA, PCAR, REGN, SHLD, SIRI, SRCL, FOSL, ISRG, NUAN, INTC, ROST, SYMC,
AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SNDK, SBAC, CHRW, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY,
SPLS, CSCO, VIAB, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, KRFT,
EXPD, FAST, MXIM, ORLY, ALTR, XLNX
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down
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