Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Volatile Trading Leaves QQQ, SPY Near Unchanged...QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM in Bull Flag Pattern...FB Not Added to SP500...Solar Stocks Gain...

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday…XLB, XLU and XLF were the strongest sectors…while XLI was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakeneddecliners led advancers…1.65 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.37 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened slightly, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – unchanged, advancers led


SPY down .02 at 179.73volume 122.9 million shares
VIX up .15 at 14.70…
TNX up .66 at 28.41…
TLT down .99 at 102.72...
XLF up .05 at 21.30 volume 43.7 million shares

AAPL down 1.32 at 565.00 volume 13.4 million shares
FB up 1.89 at 48.62…volume 60.7 million shares

Technical Commentary: 
QQQ + 0.09%, SPY – 0.01%, DIA – 0.14%, IWM – 0.27%.

Stocks opened lower after the ADP employment report indicated about 60,000 more jobs created than forecasted.  This added to the taper talk that started on Tuesday and led to the lower open.  Indexes then rallied into positive territory before falling and rising two more time before the close.

By the end of the day SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM had each formed another spinning top in their bull flag price pattern with the SPY and QQQ forming outside days and DIA and IWM forming a new low day.   Watch for a potential bull flag bounce entry on Thursday.

The VIX closed at 14.70 up .15 after a 1.49 volatility range following the volatility of SPX trading on Wednesday.

FB +1.89, +4.04% made a horizontal breakout after a MACD bullish divergence and closed above its 30 DMA.  FB lost 74 cents in after-hours on 2.2 million shares after S&P stated that FB would not be added to the SP 500.

Solar stocks FSLR, TSL, CSIQ and SPWR bounced after multi-week pullbacks.


Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”

Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”

New short term chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…Friday’s high 181.75
QQQ = 85.14, 85.77…touched on Friday
IWM = 114.39, 116.10…Friday’s high over 114

Short-term SPY posture is down in bull flag pattern.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,783, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.11
IWM = 111.62, 110.88


Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA

Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST


The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.   

____________________

Setups 
H Breakout: AKAM, FB, GOOG,
Diagonal Breakout: FFIV,  
Bull Flag: AMZN, CMCSA, COST, DTV, GILD, MYL, NFLX, QCOM, TXN, ALK, BX, FAS, RCL, SPY, UAL, VRSN,
Potential Bullish Divergence: 
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: 
At Support: SBUX,  
C- Pattern:

Moves
New Highs: MSFT, WDC, YHOO, LVS,
Gap Up: WDC, TBT,  
Gap Down: SHLD, TLT,    
H Breakout: ADSK, WYNN, LVS,  
Diagonal Breakout: FB, CRM, X,
Breakout Test:
Bounce: ESRX, MNST, A, CIEN, CRM, GLD, P, SINA,
MACD Divergence Bounce:
Bear Flag: 
Support Break: AMAT, ROST,


______________________


40 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: NUAN, YHOO, FB, CTXS, WYNN, GOLD, WDC, GMCR, MNST,MSFT, EQIX, NVDA

Lagging NDX stocks included: SHLD, TSLA, AMAT, KLAC, ORLY, VIP, NFLX, CERN, LMCA, EBAY, DISCA

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: CIEN, YOKU, TWTR, YELP, P, LVS, SINA, KKD, TSL, SPWR, JNPR

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: MFRM, JCP, VECO, RAX, ANR, BBRY, MCP, LCC

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 49
CTSH, VOD, ADBE, MSFT, XRAY, AAPL, HSIC, FISV, INTU, LINTA, PAYX, WDC, CHKP, GOOG, ADP, AMZN, MAT, CA, COST, LLTC, TXN, MCHP, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, GILD, MYL, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, NTAP, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, CTXS, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX, NVDA, BIDU, VRTX, BRCM

Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
AKAM, ATVI, FB, FFIV, VRSK, WYNN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADI, AVGO, BBBY, CERN, EBAY, GRMN, KLAC, LMCA, SBUX, TSLA

Staying Below 30 DMA
CHTR, DISCA, PCAR, REGN, SHLD, SIRI, SRCL, FOSL, ISRG, NUAN, INTC, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SNDK, SBAC, CHRW, EQIX, FOXA, EBAY, SPLS, CSCO, VIAB, AMAT, VIP, WFM, CTRX, KRFT,  EXPD, FAST, MXIM, ORLY, ALTR, XLNX


Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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