Thursday, December 12, 2013

Stocks Take Sept Back For Third Day...TXI Up In After Hours Trading...Up 9.33%...TWTR Makes Another New High...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLE, XLU and XLI were the strongest sectors…while XLP was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth strengtheneddecliners led advancers1.38 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.04 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
 
Thursday – strengthened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday - mixed
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
 
SPY down .59 at 178.13 volume 115.5 million shares
VIX up .12 at 15.54…
TNX up .33 at 28.77…
TLT down .39 at 102.71...
XLF unchanged at 21.11 volume 39.5 million shares
 
AAPL down .82 at 560.54 volume 9.3 million shares
FB up 2.45 at 51.83…volume 92.7 million shares
 
Technical Commentary: 
IWM + 0.22%, QQQ – 0.26%, SPY – 0.33%, DIA – 0.53%.
 
TXI is up in after market hours trading…up 5.56 or 9.33%...speculated sales is suspected in the rise for TXI.  TSLA rose today to break through recent horizontal resistance on 10.7 million shares and finished the day up 7.82 or up 5.6%.  FB continued today’s session with another up day after being added to S&P 500/100…up another 2.45 or 4.96%.  And TWTR finished with another record high on volume of 23.4 million shares up 2.99 or 5.71%.
 
This Friday switch from following the Dec Z3 contracts to the Mar H4.
 
Get this…the budget deal (supposedly a good thing) inspires worries that the Fed might taper its bond buying program.  So some traders sell and buyers run. 
 
Why is the Fed buying bonds each month?  The Fed has stated repeatedly they would not reduce asset purchases until the economy was in a sustainable recovery.  The markets on May 22 started the rumor the Fed would taper as early as June, then September and the Fed did not. 
 
Has the Fed proven that they will, notwithstanding what the market rumors were, not taper until they see sufficient economic strength by not reducing asset purchases to date? 
 
If the Fed did begin to reduce asset purchases would that not be a good sign of a stronger economy?
 
Is a stronger economy a good thing for businesses, revenues and earnings?
 
Is improving revenues and earnings a good thing for stock prices?
 
As traders we need to trade what is happening and let the markets do what they are going to do. 
 
Friday’s bear flag setups with charts here  http://www.chartsignals.blogspot.com/2013/12/spy-dia-iwm-and-qqq-bull-flag-bounce.html each had nice entries and moves to the downside today.
  
 
Finish 2013 strong by following your rules and begin to look for positive changes to make in 2014.
 
Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”
 
Remember it is big money that creates and sustains the trend.  As Granville wrote, “technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.  The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’  It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly, seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
 
Short-term up trend chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02Monday’s high 181.67 within 39 cents of horizontal resistance
QQQ = 86.69, 85.77…exceeded on Friday
IWM = 113.10, 114.39
 
Short-term SPY posture is pull back at resistance.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,783, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.78, 84.11
IWM = 110.88, 110.37, 108.85
 
 
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – AVGO, MFRM, SPLK, MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA, NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR, TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP, ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X, XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF, COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC, WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS, VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
 
Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY, CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP, AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW, ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS, VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP, EW, MRK,  RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL, ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY, CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS, UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line closed below 80.   
 
____________________
 
Setups 
H Breakout: DDD, V,  
Diagonal Breakout: GRPN,  
Bull Flag: AAPL, CELG, CTSH, ESRX, GOOG, MAT, STX, AXP, JNPR, MFRM, NKE, SPY, SWKS, TIF, TPX,
Potential Bullish Divergence:  
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:  
At Support: AKAM, ATVI,  
C- Pattern:
 
Moves
New Highs:  
Gap Up:  
Gap Down: GRMN, SNDK, GLD,
H Breakout: NFLX, TSLA,  
Diagonal Breakout:    
Breakout Test:  
Bounce: FIVE, RAX,  
MACD Divergence Bounce:  
Bear Flag:  
Support Break: ADBE, NTAP, NVDA, IBM,
 
______________________
 
 
29 out of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Thursday.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, FB, NFLX, VRTX, REGN, FISV, WDC, MYL, CHTR, XLNX, VIP, SHLD
 
Lagging NDX stocks included: FFIV, SNDK, SPLS, GOLD, ATVI, NVDA, DISCA, CSCO, MNST, KLAC
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: TWTR, RAX, SFUN, DDD, FIVE, TSL, UAL, GRPN, SCTY, YELP
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CIEN, ANR, JNPR, MCP, WLT, GLD, AAL, SPWR
 
 
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 43
CTSH, VOD, AAPL, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, MAT, CA, LLTC, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BIDU, BRCM, FB, WYNN, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, FFIV, PAYX, XRAY, TSLA, ORLY, CHTR
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
EBAY, VRTX
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ADP, GRMN, MSFT, SPLS, TXN, KRFT
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI, BBBY, CHKP, CTXS, FAST, GILD, HSIC, MMCHP, MYL, NTAP, NVDA, PCAR, SNDK, VIAB, VRSK, LINTA, SRCL, ADI, ADBE, AKAM, COSST, KLAC, SBUX, LMCA, SHLD, SIRI, DISCA, REGN, FOSL, ISRG, NUAN, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SBAC, CHRW, FOXA, CSCO, AMAT,, VIP,WFM, CTRX, EXPD, MXIM, ALTR, XLNX
 
Sixteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down
 

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