Three
of
nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLE, XLU and XLI were the strongest sectors…while
XLP was the weakest sector.
Breadth strengthened…decliners led advancers…1.38 to 1 on
the NYSE and 1.04 to 1 on
the NASDAQ.
Thursday
– strengthened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday - mixed
Friday – strengthened,
advancers led
SPY down .59 at 178.13 volume 115.5 million shares
VIX up .12 at 15.54…
TNX up .33 at 28.77…
TLT down .39 at 102.71...
XLF unchanged at 21.11 volume
39.5 million shares
AAPL down .82 at 560.54 volume 9.3 million shares
FB up 2.45 at 51.83…volume 92.7 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
IWM +
0.22%, QQQ – 0.26%, SPY – 0.33%, DIA – 0.53%.
TXI is up in after market hours
trading…up 5.56 or 9.33%...speculated sales is suspected in the
rise for TXI. TSLA rose today to
break through recent horizontal resistance on 10.7 million shares and finished
the day up 7.82 or up 5.6%. FB
continued today’s session with another up day after being added to S&P
500/100…up another 2.45 or 4.96%. And
TWTR finished with another record high on volume of 23.4 million shares
up 2.99 or 5.71%.
This
Friday switch from following the Dec Z3 contracts to the Mar H4.
Get this…the budget deal (supposedly
a good thing) inspires worries that the Fed might taper its bond buying
program. So some traders sell and buyers
run.
Why is the Fed buying bonds each
month? The Fed has stated repeatedly they
would not reduce asset purchases until the economy was in a sustainable
recovery. The markets on May 22 started
the rumor the Fed would taper as early as June, then September and the Fed did
not.
Has the Fed proven that they will,
notwithstanding what the market rumors were, not taper until they see
sufficient economic strength by not reducing asset purchases to date?
If the Fed did begin to reduce asset
purchases would that not be a good sign of a stronger economy?
Is a stronger economy a good thing
for businesses, revenues and earnings?
Is improving revenues and earnings a
good thing for stock prices?
As traders we need to trade what is happening and let the markets do
what they are going to do.
Friday’s bear flag setups with
charts here http://www.chartsignals.blogspot.com/2013/12/spy-dia-iwm-and-qqq-bull-flag-bounce.html
each had nice entries and moves to the downside today.
Finish 2013 strong by
following your rules and begin to look for positive changes to make in 2014.
Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over
again expecting different results.”
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend chart targets:
Chart Targets:
SPY = 182.06, 183.02…Monday’s
high 181.67 within 39 cents of horizontal resistance
QQQ = 86.69, 85.77…exceeded
on Friday
IWM = 113.10, 114.39…
Short-term SPY posture is
pull back at resistance.
Support Levels
ES = 1,797, 1,783, 1,774
SPY = 179.93, 177.98
QQQ = 84.78, 84.11
IWM = 110.88, 110.37,
108.85
Q3 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – AVGO, MFRM, SPLK,
MRVL, GMCR, JCP, LZB, JKS, BRCD, TSN, YOKU, SINA,
NTAP, SLXP, PCLN, NVDA, GRPN, AWAY, PRU, TPX, TSO, CTSH, FSLR,
TRMB, MDVN, NATI, SPR, ONNN, EXPE, CRR, HAR, GTI, ATML, THOR, TRN, FLT, MCHP,
ITT, DICSA, ANR, SWKS, FB, CMCSA, GILD, DWA, LVLT, EA, SEE, SPW, TFX, JCI, X,
XRAY, XYL, JLL, PBI, ALR, HUN, ACT, DECK, AMZN, MSFT, FLS, AVY, ALXN, WOOF,
COG, BA, CLGX, ESI, EQIX, WLL, TSCO, RRD, PHM, RCL, ALXN, APOL, BCR, NDAQ, NSC,
WHR, ILMN, NUS, GNTX, LXK, DD, VFC, CMG, GOOG, BHI, GE, KSU, MS, SLB, STI, LVS,
VZ, SNDK, NUE, BTU, AXP, KEY, STLD, URI, USB, INTC, JNJ, SCHW, COST, AA
Negative Reactions – ROST, GME, BBY,
CPB, JEC, TSL, CRM, CSCO, RAX, MNST, QCOM, SCTY, IPGP,
AIG, BRKR, HME, NEM, XLS, Z, NIHD, AVP, WTW, ROVI, GRMN, JDSU, OSK, CNW,
ITRI, CTRX, KRFT, GRMN, MYL, DLR, XCO, WU, LNKD, IACI, MSM, INGR, HTS,
VRTX, AAPL, PMCS, MWV, SOHU, AGNC, AGCO, PCL, GT, CMI, VSH, ALSN, ROP,
EW, MRK, RYN, RMD, NCR, KBR, FSL,
ESRX, EMN, FIO, SIRI, CAM, TKR, SYMC, CVA, CDNS, AKAM, XRX, CRI, ORLY,
CAT, NFLX, COH, ZION, WAT, EMC, UTX, TXN, HON, ISRG, GS,
UNP, UNH, EBAY, IBM, XLNX, SCSS, SWK, MU, FAST
The Market Forecast Green Line closed below 80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: DDD,
V,
Diagonal Breakout: GRPN,
Bull Flag: AAPL, CELG, CTSH, ESRX, GOOG, MAT, STX, AXP,
JNPR, MFRM, NKE, SPY, SWKS, TIF, TPX,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: AKAM,
ATVI,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs:
Gap Up:
Gap Down: GRMN, SNDK, GLD,
H Breakout: NFLX, TSLA,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout
Test:
Bounce: FIVE, RAX,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: ADBE, NTAP, NVDA, IBM,
______________________
29 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Thursday.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: TSLA, FB, NFLX,
VRTX, REGN, FISV, WDC, MYL, CHTR, XLNX, VIP, SHLD
Lagging NDX stocks included: FFIV, SNDK, SPLS,
GOLD, ATVI, NVDA, DISCA, CSCO, MNST, KLAC
Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday
included: TWTR, RAX, SFUN, DDD, FIVE, TSL, UAL, GRPN, SCTY, YELP
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CIEN, ANR, JNPR, MCP, WLT, GLD, AAL,
SPWR
Stocks to Watch on Friday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 43
CTSH, VOD,
AAPL, FISV, INTU, WDC, GOOG, AMZN, MAT, CA, LLTC, MU, EXPE, NFLX, ADSK, ESRX,
ALXN, PCLN, MDLZ, MNST, YHOO, QCOM, SIAL, CELG, BIIB, CMCSA, LBTYA, GMCR, DTV, STX,
BIDU, BRCM, FB, WYNN, AVGO, INTC, EQIX, FFIV, PAYX, XRAY, TSLA, ORLY, CHTR
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
EBAY, VRTX
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
ADP, GRMN, MSFT, SPLS,
TXN, KRFT
Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI,
BBBY, CHKP, CTXS, FAST, GILD, HSIC, MMCHP, MYL, NTAP, NVDA, PCAR, SNDK, VIAB,
VRSK, LINTA, SRCL, ADI, ADBE, AKAM, COSST, KLAC, SBUX, LMCA, SHLD, SIRI, DISCA,
REGN, FOSL, ISRG, NUAN, ROST, SYMC, AMGN, DLTR, GOLD, SBAC, CHRW, FOXA, CSCO,
AMAT,, VIP,WFM, CTRX, EXPD, MXIM, ALTR, XLNX
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down
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